Alabama is one win away from clinching the SEC West title. Can the Crimson Tide cover the lopsided spread against the Arkansas Razorbacks? We look into it with our Arkansas-Alabama picks and predictions.
Alabama has seemed to be down this year, but the Crimson Tide are still the second-best team in college football according to the College Football Playoff rankings. They need to win their last home game to clinch the SEC West title and punch their ticket to Atlanta.
Alabama (6-4 against the spread) hosts an Arkansas (5-4-1) team that started the year off strong with two big wins against ranked opponents across its first four games, but the Razorbacks have sputtered in recent weeks. Still, they will have plenty of energy when they travel to Tuscaloosa to take on the Tide.
Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 12 matchup between Arkansas and Alabama (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Arkansas vs. Alabama Game Info
Date/Time: Saturday, November 20, 3:30 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, ALWeather: 69 degrees, no rain
Arkansas vs. Alabama Odds Analysis
The line opened at 20.5 for the Crimson Tide. Since then, it has bumped up. Some sportsbooks have it at 21, and others list it at 21.5. No injuries have been released regarding this game, so this is simply due to the betting action.
The point total opened at 58. Some sportsbooks have dipped it down to 57.5, but most have kept it at either 58 or bumped it up to 58.5. With Alabama’s potent offense, this line makes sense.
Arkansas vs. Alabama Betting Picks
Arkansas +21.5 (-115) ???Over 58.5 (-106) ??
SEE ALSO: College Football Week 12 Power Rankings
Arkansas vs. Alabama Betting Predictions
Arkansas +21.5 (-115)
Alabama’s offense is elite, but the Tide sometimes stop themselves. Drops have become an issue with the tight ends and receivers. They also lost most of their running back depth due to injuries.
Arkansas still has a powerful rushing attack, and the defense has stepped up in recent weeks. If the Razorbacks can get a few wins in the trenches, they should be able to churn the clock and keep this close.
Arkansas’ defense has been hit or miss all season, but it has stepped it up in recent weeks. The Razorbacks should be able to get pressure as the Crimson Tide still try to fix their struggling offensive line. QB Bryce Young has proven that he can scramble, but constant pressure in the backfield will limit this facet of his game significantly.
The value of this line comes with where it currently sits. A 21.5-point spread gives the bettor a chance to win even if Alabama wins by three touchdowns. It is always important to see which side you are on when a spread is close to a typical scoring difference, and this one favors the Razorbacks.
Alabama will almost certainly win this game, but don’t be surprised if it stays close for the first three quarters. The Tide will pull away, but they may not have enough time to take over like you would expect.
Over 58.5 (-106)
Other sportsbooks have a smaller line, but there is value with the -106 at FanDuel. This could be a shootout that easily hits the Over.
Alabama’s defense has relied on turnovers this year. That is volatile, and this could be the game where that comes back to bite the Tide. Arkansas rarely throws interceptions, and it is a lot harder to force a fumble against a fundamentally sound team.
This is a high spread, but the boom potential of each offense makes me lean to the Over.
SEE ALSO: All College Football Picks
Arkansas-Alabama picks made on 11/17/21 at 11:45 a.m. ET.