NL Rookie of the Year: Seiya Suzuki and Hunter Greene Take Early Lead

It is very early in the Major League Baseball season and yet there is a possibility that the favorites for the National League Rookie of the Year are pulling away from the rest.

There is still plenty of time for production to change, but it looks like Chicago Cubs right fielder Seiya Suzuki and Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene are separating from other top contenders in the National League.

Here is a look at the top two contenders as well as some of the preseason contenders that are starting slowly.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds

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Seiya Suzuki

Suzuki is a 27-year-old right fielder who mashed 38 home runs with a slash line of .317/.433/.639 in Japan last season. He signed a five-year, $85 million deal with the Cubs and has made a seamless transition to MLB.

In his first 11 games, Suzuki has four home runs, 11 RBI, nine runs scored, and has walked 12 times while striking out nine. His slash line of .414./.581/.897 leads the league across the board so he is quite obviously the leading candidate for National League Rookie of the Year right now. He opened the season priced at +380 on DraftKings Sportsbook and that has quickly moved to +140.

It is noteworthy, too, that Suzuki has moved from +6500 to +3500 on FanDuel Sportsbook for National League MVP, as his 1.1 FanGraphs WAR is tops in MLB.

Not only has Suzuki put up big numbers but there are encouraging underlying numbers that might suggest his production is going to be sustainable, if not at this current level, at least along the lines of a productive middle-of-the-order bat for the Cubs.

Hunter Greene

The second pick by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2017 Draft, Greene has an overpowering fastball. Through his first two major league starts, his average fastball is measured at 100 mph on FanGraphs, the highest among starting pitchers. He has surrendered three home runs in 10 1/3 innings, so there is room for improvement, but Greene’s live arm has also helped him to record 13 strikeouts with just two walks.

While his 1-1 record, 4.35 ERA, and 4.89 FIP are not outstanding, Greene’s expected Fielding Independent Pitching is 2.95. This is in a very small sample but, compared to the rest of the rookie class, Greene has great potential. With a regular spot in the Reds rotation, he has an opportunity to deliver results.

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Others

Part of the reason that Suzuki and Greene have started to create a gap ahead of the rest of the rookie class in the National League is that the other preseason contenders have struggled to make their mark in the first couple of weeks.

Oneil Cruz

Entering Spring Training, the Pirates’ top prospect was a leading candidate for NL Rookie of the Year. But the Pirates sent Cruz to Triple-A and while that might have been as much about delaying Cruz’s service time, he has a slash line of .194/.293/.306 with zero home runs and four stolen bases in his first 10 games. Cruz’s NL Rookie of the Year odds have shifted from +400 to +800 at DraftKings.

C.J. Abrams

When Padres star Fernando Tatis Jr. suffered a broken wrist in the preseason that opened the door for Abrams to win a spot on the major league roster. The sixth pick in the 2019 Draft, Abrams was a standout in the spring to earn a job, but he has found it more difficult since the season started, going just 3-for-26 at the plate in his first nine games. His odds have moved from +700 to +1200 at FanDuel.

Bryson Stott

Stott was the 14th pick in the 2019 Draft by the Philadelphia Phillies and, like Abrams, had a productive spring to earn a major league job. Stott has struggled early, going 4-for-30 at the plate. Stott and Abrams are getting opportunities that could pay off but only if they get to the point of putting up legitimate numbers at the major league level. Stott’s price has moved from +800 to +1500 at DraftKings in relatively short order.

Seth Beer

A first-round pick in 2018, Beer has a track record as a power hitter and although he only has one home run through 10 games this season, Beer is having real success at the plate, with a slash line of .393/.452/.571, so his odds have dropped from +4000 to +1800 at FanDuel.

Joey Bart

Taking over as the Giants catcher in the post-Buster Posey era, Bart was the second pick in the 2018 Draft. He has hit a couple of home runs early and if he can maintain quality offensive production as a starting catcher, that could provide real value, but his odds have still climbed from +1000 at the start of the season to +1800 at DraftKings.

MacKenzie Gore

The Padres selected Gore with the third pick in the 2017 Draft and while his development has had some ups and downs, he struck out 16 in 12 innings in Spring Training to show that the potential is still there. The challenge for Gore is finding a regular turn in the San Diego rotation but he did have an effective start against the Atlanta Braves in his MLB debut. He could be a Rookie of the Year candidate if he gets the opportunity to pitch. Gore’s odds have improved from +4000 to +2500 at FanDuel.

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