NFL Promos

pokerdevil · 07-27-21, 10:31 AM

Typically the theoretical hold is higher on this type of thing than with typical 2-way market or 2-team parlays. It's easier for the book to obscure the hold, because it's impossible to do the math in your head

Odds of going exactly 7-for-8 (assuming 50% to win each leg) = 3.125%
0-for-8 = 0.390625%
8-for-8 = 0.390625%

3.515625% = +2 units
0.390625% = +160 units
96.09375% = -1 unit

On average you lose 0.265 units on a 1 unit parlay! STAY AWAY

CanuckG · 07-27-21, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Drydin

As bettors if you saw your Book of choice running this Promo would it interest you in the slightest or would you think its complete garbage?

Second Chance Parlays - Pointspread Only No buying Points

7 outta 8 wins 2/1

8 outta 8 wins 160/1

0 outta 8 wins 2/1

And if this promo doesn't interest you what are some of your favorites you have seen offered over the years figured this would be a good collection of seasoned bettors to ask this question?

Has a book offered this in the past?

Drydin · 07-27-21, 03:50 PM

Has a book offered this in the past?

I had seen it done a long time ago we are looking to offer some bet promos specifically for football. We want to do something different than just Put money in app get some free money or bets. I like the old surrender at halftime get your bet back but don't think that would be allowed by gaming here in Las Vegas. Probably gonna do some form of Jackpot Parlay card but have not got figures approved yet. Was hoping would get a few ideas from forum we could possibly run with.

Optional · 07-31-21, 05:50 AM

Originally posted by pokerdevil

Typically the theoretical hold is higher on this type of thing than with typical 2-way market or 2-team parlays. It's easier for the book to obscure the hold, because it's impossible to do the math in your head

Odds of going exactly 7-for-8 (assuming 50% to win each leg) = 3.125%
0-for-8 = 0.390625%
8-for-8 = 0.390625%

3.515625% = +2 units
0.390625% = +160 units
96.09375% = -1 unit

On average you lose 0.265 units on a 1 unit parlay! STAY AWAY

That's a bit of a clinical way to to look at an 8 leg parlay promo.

It's paying full odds for -110 legs.

In comparison to the regular offer of money back as a freeplay if you miss one leg, it is attractive.

I think the sort of player attracted by the money back offers would think this looks great. After all, most 8 leg parlay bettors are not treating every bet like is has to be +EV. Most bettors still do it for "fun".

Local book down here does stuff like 10% boosted odds for 3 legs, 15% for 4 legs, 20% for 5 legs etc.

That one often ropes me into to placing a parlay I would not have otherwise.

semibluff · 07-31-21, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by Optional

That's a bit of a clinical way to to look at an 8 leg parlay promo.

It's paying full odds for -110 legs.

In comparison to the regular offer of money back as a freeplay if you miss one leg, it is attractive.

I think the sort of player attracted by the money back offers would think this looks great. After all, most 8 leg parlay bettors are not treating every bet like is has to be +EV. Most bettors still do it for "fun".

Local book down here does stuff like 10% boosted odds for 3 legs, 15% for 4 legs, 20% for 5 legs etc.

That one often ropes me into to placing a parlay I would not have otherwise.

For an accurate comparison it's making a bet with true odds of 255/1, (+25500), and having the payout boosted from 160/1 to 187/1. That would be a boost of 16.875% on an 8 leg parley. It's not a terrible offer, and a boost is a boost, but take the 8 legs out of the equation and you're still only getting 73.4375% of true value. That would be like taking 60/128, (-213.333) on a coin flip.

For reference making 8 coin flips at -110 would pay out at +175.446 with no bonus.

doylebrinson · 07-31-21, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by Drydin

As bettors if you saw your Book of choice running this Promo would it interest you in the slightest or would you think its complete garbage?

I would think its complete garbage.

pokerdevil · 07-31-21, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by Optional

That's a bit of a clinical way to to look at an 8 leg parlay promo.

It's paying full odds for -110 legs.

In comparison to the regular offer of money back as a freeplay if you miss one leg, it is attractive.

I think the sort of player attracted by the money back offers would think this looks great. After all, most 8 leg parlay bettors are not treating every bet like is has to be +EV. Most bettors still do it for "fun".

Local book down here does stuff like 10% boosted odds for 3 legs, 15% for 4 legs, 20% for 5 legs etc.

That one often ropes me into to placing a parlay I would not have otherwise.

You're right that this is a better way of looking at it. The promo makes the 8-leg parlay "less bad"

Sort of like how I'd never play roulette in the first place. But if I were forced to, I should seek out a single 0 roulette wheel