Lots of games tonight in Brazil's Serie A, here's where i see value:
Portuguesa vs Fluminense pk and -0.5 (2.1 at pinnacle) - Excelent price here for the league leaders. Portuguesa seems tough at home at first - they are 7th in the home standings (11th overall) with only two home losses and unbeaten in their last 6 home matches. However, if we look further, we realise they have feasted against the weaker teams and really only have one win in five matches against the top half of the table teams. Fluminense is the top away tem in the league, having only one loss in 12 away matches. Needing the points, look for fluminense to try hard for the 3 points, which they should be able to get. Playing 2 Units on this one.
Portuguesa vs Fluminense - under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.03 at pinnacle) - Only 27% of Portuguesa home matches and 33% of Fluminenses away matches have went over 2.5 goals and none of the 5 matches Portuguesa played against the top half of the table teams has had 3 or more goals. In Fluminenses away matches against teams ranked similiraly to Portuguesa (11th) (7th to 15th), only one in 6 matches went over. It's possible we only get a half win here, but stats show its highly unlikely the game will go over.
Figueirense vs Cruzeiro pk and +0.5 (1.917) - Books are considering Figueirense the favourite to win here, which seems a bit of a stretch when we look and see that they are 19th overall and 18th at home, with only 3 wins in 12 home matches. As for 8th place Cruzeiro, they are actually 5th in away standings and have been playing better on the road than at home. Figueirense only has one win against the top half of the table teams. Don't think Cruzeiro should be a clear favourite to win, but here we get a good price to make money on either the better team winning or the draw.
few more write-ups to follow.
Portuguesa vs Fluminense pk and -0.5 (2.1 at pinnacle) - Excelent price here for the league leaders. Portuguesa seems tough at home at first - they are 7th in the home standings (11th overall) with only two home losses and unbeaten in their last 6 home matches. However, if we look further, we realise they have feasted against the weaker teams and really only have one win in five matches against the top half of the table teams. Fluminense is the top away tem in the league, having only one loss in 12 away matches. Needing the points, look for fluminense to try hard for the 3 points, which they should be able to get. Playing 2 Units on this one.
Portuguesa vs Fluminense - under 2 and 2.5 goals (2.03 at pinnacle) - Only 27% of Portuguesa home matches and 33% of Fluminenses away matches have went over 2.5 goals and none of the 5 matches Portuguesa played against the top half of the table teams has had 3 or more goals. In Fluminenses away matches against teams ranked similiraly to Portuguesa (11th) (7th to 15th), only one in 6 matches went over. It's possible we only get a half win here, but stats show its highly unlikely the game will go over.
Figueirense vs Cruzeiro pk and +0.5 (1.917) - Books are considering Figueirense the favourite to win here, which seems a bit of a stretch when we look and see that they are 19th overall and 18th at home, with only 3 wins in 12 home matches. As for 8th place Cruzeiro, they are actually 5th in away standings and have been playing better on the road than at home. Figueirense only has one win against the top half of the table teams. Don't think Cruzeiro should be a clear favourite to win, but here we get a good price to make money on either the better team winning or the draw.
few more write-ups to follow.
. Benefitted and burned by last minute goals (and offsides!)