TheSportsAnalyst All-Around 2012/2013 Thread

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Just want to keep a separate thread from the Italy-focused one for all of my other bets (not only soccer).

MLB (starting in a couple of minutes)

Minnesota Twins to Win @2.875

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays U 8.0 @1.930
Milwaukee Brewers to cover -1.5 @2.560


Later I'll post my picks for NFL opener this night and something about tomorrow soccer games.

[BigBurk]

Past record on both NFL and MLB?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Past record on both NFL and MLB?

I prefer to not post something I can't prove (apart from my spreadsheet) Burk.
I have a pretty good record imho but we'll see what I'll have in the future.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

My pick for tonight opener is

Dallas Cowboys to cover +3.5 @1.950

Last 3 years I went 155-122 ATS on NFL.
In my opinion this will be a match very tight despite NY is getting majority of trust from people and experts.
There is a well known trend which states since 1998 the SuperBowl champions covered the spread 12 times out of 12.
Could this be the first time they won't?

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Boston Red Sox to Win @2.150
Tampa Bay Rays to Win @1.600 LIVE!

[BigBurk]

Easy win on the Dallas play! Giants didn't look near as good as they should.

Too bad the MLB plays had a rough night. Good luck though on this thread, will be looking in oftenly!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Easy win on the Dallas play! Giants didn't look near as good as they should.

Too bad the MLB plays had a rough night. Good luck though on this thread, will be looking in oftenly!

Thanks Burk!
Sh***y night on MLB (as often lately for me ) but the good start on NFL gave me enthusiasm for this football season.

MLB RECORD
OVERALL: 1-4 -2.44u

NFL 2012 RECORD
ATS: 1-0 +0.95u


I'm preparing a play on soccer for this afternoon (in Europe).

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Russia»Division 1
Petrotrest - Ufa: Petrotest +0.75 @1.850

Bookmaker is actually Marathon, not SBObet.
Max amount for this bet is over 350,00€ so absolutely decent.

Petrotest struggled at the beginning of the season, when they got two consecutive defeats and allowed 7 goals scoring only once.
These two matches wew against Tomsk and Ural, two teams greatly favoured in this league.
Since Petrotest played 7 times collecting 9 points, which is a decent amount for a team which probably just have to avoid relegation.
They already faced Spartak Nalchik (2-0 on the road) and Sibir (3-2 at home), other top clubs, so when I saw these odds I thought I absolutely have to put something on it.
They are offered at a decent price with this handicap and as I really don't see Ufa winning by 2+ goals at least half of our stake could be back.
Great value at low risk imho.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Let's try it again.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins U 7.5 @1.980

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Russia»Division 1
Petrotrest - Ufa: Petrotest +0.75 @1.850

Bookmaker is actually Marathon, not SBObet.
Max amount for this bet is over 350,00€ so absolutely decent.

Petrotest struggled at the beginning of the season, when they got two consecutive defeats and allowed 7 goals scoring only once.
These two matches wew against Tomsk and Ural, two teams greatly favoured in this league.
Since Petrotest played 7 times collecting 9 points, which is a decent amount for a team which probably just have to avoid relegation.
They already faced Spartak Nalchik (2-0 on the road) and Sibir (3-2 at home), other top clubs, so when I saw these odds I thought I absolutely have to put something on it.
They are offered at a decent price with this handicap and as I really don't see Ufa winning by 2+ goals at least half of our stake could be back.
Great value at low risk imho.

Petrotest won 2-1. Good.
Miami already 2-0 in the 1st with no outs. Same old MLB luck for me.

[BigBurk]

Let's try it again.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins U 7.5 @1.980

4-1, top 7th. This still has every chance of hitting!

[BigBurk]

Half inning to go.. Cmon.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Half inning to go.. Cmon.

Oh well, of course. They conceded the totally unuseful last run. Thanks Marlins.

[BigBurk]

Damn dude.. MLB is really tough on you!!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Definitely not my year on baseball but this period is awful.

MLB RECORD (since 09/05)
O/U: 0-2 -2.00u
ML: 0-3 -3.00u
RL: 1-0 +1.56u
OVERALL: 1-5 -3.44u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

France » National
Paris FC - Bourg Peronnas: Paris FC to Win @2.250

Paris FC is still looking for their first win of the season after 5 games and just 3 points collected and today they'll receive Bourg-Peronnas at home.
Don't be fooled by standings positions: two out of the three Bourg wins were against lower table teames (Carquefou is really modest and also Red Star is in relegation zone).
First time they faced a decent team (Rouen last weekend) they badly lost 0-2 at home, showing their lack of quality to be in contention for the first places (actually they're promoted from CFA last May so safe zone could be considered their target).
Now, in my opinion Paris FC, despite the rattling start is a better side than Carquefou or Red Star and I didn't expect them to be relegated at the end of the year, so a home game against a middle par squad is the right occasion to go for the first three pointer of the season.
@2.25 on Marathon deserve a try.

Available also on BetSafe at a higher price but I'll play only on decent bookies.


SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
1 W - 0 L - 0 P +0.85u

[birdmanweezy]

be careful with mlb not a great time to be betting them

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Toronto Blue Jays to Win @2.280
Minnesota Twins to Win @1.775
Milwaukee Brewers @ Saint Louis Cardinals U 7.5 @2.080

[Vaughany]

France » National
Paris FC - Bourg Peronnas: Paris FC to Win @2.250

Paris FC is still looking for their first win of the season after 5 games and just 3 points collected and today they'll receive Bourg-Peronnas at home.
Don't be fooled by standings positions: two out of the three Bourg wins were against lower table teames (Carquefou is really modest and also Red Star is in relegation zone).
First time they faced a decent team (Rouen last weekend) they badly lost 0-2 at home, showing their lack of quality to be in contention for the first places (actually they're promoted from CFA last May so safe zone could be considered their target).
Now, in my opinion Paris FC, despite the rattling start is a better side than Carquefou or Red Star and I didn't expect them to be relegated at the end of the year, so a home game against a middle par squad is the right occasion to go for the first three pointer of the season.
@2.25 on Marathon deserve a try.

Available also on BetSafe at a higher price but I'll play only on decent bookies.


SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
1 W - 0 L - 0 P +0.85u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

France » National
Paris FC - Bourg Peronnas: Paris FC to Win @2.250

Paris FC is still looking for their first win of the season after 5 games and just 3 points collected and today they'll receive Bourg-Peronnas at home.
Don't be fooled by standings positions: two out of the three Bourg wins were against lower table teames (Carquefou is really modest and also Red Star is in relegation zone).
First time they faced a decent team (Rouen last weekend) they badly lost 0-2 at home, showing their lack of quality to be in contention for the first places (actually they're promoted from CFA last May so safe zone could be considered their target).
Now, in my opinion Paris FC, despite the rattling start is a better side than Carquefou or Red Star and I didn't expect them to be relegated at the end of the year, so a home game against a middle par squad is the right occasion to go for the first three pointer of the season.
@2.25 on Marathon deserve a try.

Available also on BetSafe at a higher price but I'll play only on decent bookies.

Paris FC won 2-1.

SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
2 W - 0 L - 0 P +2.10u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Los Angeles Angels to Win @2.030
Detroit Tigers to cover -1.5 @2.550

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Damn, I came close with the Twins and the total but... whatever. Small loss for a 2-3 night on MLB.

MLB RECORD (since 09/05)
O/U: 0-3 -3.00u
ML: 2-4 -1.69u
RL: 1-1 +0.56u
OVERALL: 3-8 -4.13u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

NCAAF (Early ATS/OU plays + Ohio game)
New Mexico State to cover +21 @2.000
New Mexico State @ Ohio O 59 @1.990
Kansas State to cover -7 @2.030
UCF @ Ohio State U 50.5 @1.917
Tulane to cover +23 @1.990

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Germany»Regionalliga North
TSV Havelse - Hamburger (Am): TSV Havelse +0 @1.800

Havelse hadn't start well this season but they have the quality to beat the second team of Hamburg at home.
Last season they were 4th in the standings, with something like 15 points over the relegation zone and they didn't dismantled the team so there's no reason to think they couldn't be able to do the same this year.
They've yet to win a game on this season and Hamburg, despite the good start, is full of youngsters which could pay the inexperience at a senior level over the long term.
The DNB option isn't so juicy on SBObet (offered @1.80) and give a nice backup in case of a not so unlikely dra


Iceland»Division 1
Throttur - Vikingur Reykjavik: Vikingur Reykjavik +0.25 @1.910

Iceland Division 1 is just a roulette: every team could beat basically each other in the league.
Throttur is a very up&down team and I don't get these odds. They were simply awful at home before their last three games on their own turf, having scored just 4 points in 6 games.
Since they won 3/3 but continued to struggle on the road.
I'm quite sure this positive trend at home could stop today and step back to normal less than 1 point per game avg. also because last 3 overall games, once they were sure to remain in 1. Division also in 2013, they badly lost against Bolungarvik on the road, they barely beated the already relegated IR and they lost last game too.
Plus both teams have nothing to play for, except for the fact Vikingur need a point to consider itself completely safe.
A draw imho is very likely and the payout could be satisfying.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Germany»Regionalliga North
TSV Havelse - Hamburger (Am): TSV Havelse +0 @1.800

Havelse hadn't start well this season but they have the quality to beat the second team of Hamburg at home.
Last season they were 4th in the standings, with something like 15 points over the relegation zone and they didn't dismantled the team so there's no reason to think they couldn't be able to do the same this year.
They've yet to win a game on this season and Hamburg, despite the good start, is full of youngsters which could pay the inexperience at a senior level over the long term.
The DNB option isn't so juicy on SBObet (offered @1.80) and give a nice backup in case of a not so unlikely draw.

2-0 Havelse, with an early lead and a well handled Hamburg reaction in the 1st half.
Good start of the weekend.

SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
3 W - 0 L - 0 P +2.90u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Iceland»Division 1
Throttur - Vikingur Reykjavik: Vikingur Reykjavik +0.25 @1.910

Iceland Division 1 is just a roulette: every team could beat basically each other in the league.
Throttur is a very up&down team and I don't get these odds. They were simply awful at home before their last three games on their own turf, having scored just 4 points in 6 games.
Since they won 3/3 but continued to struggle on the road.
I'm quite sure this positive trend at home could stop today and step back to normal less than 1 point per game avg. also because last 3 overall games, once they were sure to remain in 1. Division also in 2013, they badly lost against Bolungarvik on the road, they barely beated the already relegated IR and they lost last game too.
Plus both teams have nothing to play for, except for the fact Vikingur need a point to consider itself completely safe.
A draw imho is very likely and the payout could be satisfying.

1-0 Vikingur on the road.
Another hit, and the record is still perfect.

SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
4 W - 0 L - 0 P +3.81u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Los Angeles Angels to Win @2.260


Good night to everyone.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Los Angeles Angels to Win @2.260

6-1

MLB RECORD (since 09/05)
O/U: 0-3 -3.00u
ML: 3-4 -0.43u
RL: 1-1 +0.56u
OVERALL: 4-8 -2.87u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Norway » Adeccoligaen
Notodden - Mjondalen: Notodden +0 @2.220

This is a strange one, I admit it.
Mjondalen is on a positive streak, while Notodden is having a winless one but a +0 means that both could continue their trends.
But I think, leaving the draw apart, Notodden have a slight advantage over Mjondalen.
Vegard Hansen's team is not built for an high standing place and despite their actual position I think they just overperformed in last period. They'll be missing american starting defender Bernstein (17/0) in tonight game and even they'll play for a win, their performances on the road this season were average at best before the midseason break.
Notodden desperately need a win as b/c of their awful period they're now deep in relegation zone. Their last outing (3-3 in Sandefjord) makes me think they're slowly trying to exit from this bad moment and today could be the right opportunity to make it.
It has to be said that in the first matchup of the season between these two teams, actually played after the midseason break, Notodden stopped Mjondalen on the road 2-2 and it was their last point gained.
Price now is up to 2.22 on Pinny, too much tempting to pass.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

NFL

Philadelphia Eagles to cover -9.5 @1.970
Jacksonville Jaguars to cover +3.5 @2.000
New York Jets to cover -3 @1.952
PHI @ CLE U 43 @1.920
NE @ TEN U 48 @2.000
JAC @ MIN U 37.5 @2.070
ATL @ KC U 43 @1.917
Miami Dolphins to Win @7.900
Buffalo Bills to Win @2.260


MLB

NYY @ BAL U 9 @1.970

[TheSportsAnalyst]

MLB

Oakland Athletics to Win @1.880
ATL @ SD U 7 @1.980


NFL

SF @ GB O 46.5 @1.943
Carolina Panthers to cover -3 @2.000
CAR @ TB O 45.5 @1.971
Seattle Seahawks to cover -2.5 @1.885
SEA @ ARI U 41 @1.975
San Francisco 49ers to Win @3.240

[Vaughany]

1-0 Vikingur on the road.
Another hit, and the record is still perfect.

SOCCER RECORD (Italian leagues not included)
4 W - 0 L - 0 P +3.81u

THey great plays there buddy

[Vaughany]

On Monaco at 4/5 at home to Dijon tonight. Dijon being slightly-over-rated IMO because of their form so far. But a big part of that haas been Corgnet who was their best player and left last week to join Lorient for 4million. Dijon were losing at home to bottom of the league Ajaccio Gazelec last time out until Corgnet came off the bench and saved the day! They wont have him this time to save them against the best team in the league and who will be very motivated to bounce back from Le Havre loss with a win. Bamba, one of Dijon key defenders is also out suspended.

[Vaughany]

Monaco bottled it... need a Spezia win tomorrow big time now