Do FIFA Rankings Mean Anything?

[Ira Wilton]

Looking at the odds vs the FIFA rankings it seems that rankings mean very little. Czech #2, USA #4. Czechs are something like 35/1 and US is 75/1. Even with the (in my opinion) overrated statistic that only 1 non-euro team....
Also, last time I looked at a map the czechs were in Europe. I don't understand but i'm sure there is a good reason for this; I just know nothing about soccer.

[Baphomet]

Brazil and european teams are by far the best soccer teams.
But that rating is only a sum up of international matches.
After the WC you will see many changes on that list, it'll be more realistic.
USA being #5 is just crap, but they want to promote soccer in USA, that's my guess. Germany is #19 and they just beat USA 4-1, two months ago.

[Ira Wilton]

What about Czech?

[adriano]

those rankings are based only on results in the last i don't know how many years, nothing to do with the strength of the opponents played. They really mean NOTHING.

Czech republic is a good to very good side, though ageing. They have almost perfect records in qualification for the big tournaments, but are always unlucky in the cups, screwed in the lots or by the refs.

If you think of betting such a long shot, forget it. Only teams with realistic chance are Brazil, Germany, Argentina maybe Italy.

[Baphomet]

Italy has been weak lately just like England.
Again, after the first row of matches it'll be easier to forecast.
For now, Germany and Brazil are the favorites all the way.
Those rankings add the points earned by teams.
Each match won = 3 points, ties count one, and losses none.
So older teams have more points, Czech being a fairly newer country than Germany and Argentina for example has summed a lot more points. I think psychlogical pressure helps at the finals.
Brazilians and germans train to be champions not just to see what happens.

[Dark Horse]

I've begun to cap the tournament based on L10 matches. Did you know that Holland not only went unbeaten in qualifying, twice beating the Czech Republic, but has allowed only 1 goal in it L10!? Total score over L10: 19-1. And this is an offensive side!!

Most folks out there are seriously underestimating Naranja Mechanica. Remember that the Dutch will be playing at 'home'. The only time they'd be on the road would be against Germany.

[tacomax]

Explanation of the ranking calculations here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Rankings#Top_20_Rankings_as_of_May_2006

[pjesnik24]

Those rankings do not tell you anything. The reason why USA is so good is because they play in weak qualifying region so they have a lot of easy wins while many great European teams lose a lot og games because they have very tough opponents.
WC is actually a fight between European teams + Brazil and Argentina. I do not think it will change this year either.

[Ira Wilton]

Thanks Taco that site was informative. What do you guys think about the ELO rankings?