DarkNite Pick on Thursday

[DarkNite]

Paok v Udinese //////// Paok to win
Tail or fade me is up to you. I go with my own pick.

[allin1]

Is this made by analyzing line moves?

[DarkNite]

Is this made by analyzing line moves?

Yes.
Another one is Wisla Krkow = DblC or DNB
Ajax will get a Draw today.

[DarkNite]

Legia Warszaw = DNB. If taking ML is too much money @6.00

[DarkNite]

Go ahead, make your move!
Or if you want, you can bet all the favorite teams.
That's all my picks for today.
Good luck to all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[littlezola]

Quick question about analysing line moves.

How are you distingusing between the positive and negative factors involved in line movement?

That's always been my problem with this idea.

[allin1]

do you like the under in twente match? I think I am going with it

[allin1]

Besides paok your other bets are looking good with only 20 minutes of play left

[DarkNite]

Yes, I cannot be perfect but not bad for the day.

[DarkNite]

I was wrong on Paok, line changed so fast before game, Krakow (0-0) -> DblC ( DNB) = win, Warszaw lost 0-1 ( wrong), Ajax won SU ( I picked as Draw-> I bet on Ajax as Double Chance, so I won this game.
Early Friday, A-League, everywhere has been written that New Castle will be the winner, but I pick Adelaide as DNB.
........................................ ........................................ ...............................
This is the way I look at the lines Allin1:
New Castle: ATS: Open -116, current -110 = not much change.
ML: Open: -111, current: -110; no change (only 1 pts, but with lots of bets and higher percentage but why the line does not go down, only one single points)
Adelaide: ATS: Open: +105, current +100;
ML: Open +334, current +270 ( change = 334-320= 14 pts ( This is good one, because the change is > 10 pts, with less bets but probably big money on this side, so it causes the line to move down, We have seen today on ManU v Ajax... the perfect exemple)
Draw: Open +266, current +270 ( no good because the line moves up = bookies want people to bet on Draw)
I am interested on ML only, I look at # of bets and the percentage, I see now ( 2 hours before game time), 246 bets ( 66%) bet on New Castle; 57 bets ( 15%) on Adelaide, and 72 bets ( 19%) on Draw.
My decision: Adelaide ( for insurance = DNB).

[BigTimeWinner]

interesting, will be watching your picks

[allin1]

Yes, I cannot be perfect but not bad for the day.

Not bad at all. You are going against the public in exactly those matches where the public seems to be wrong. Everyone thought Man U will cover the spread. You went with Ajax and it was a hit. Impressive