Leo Messi's Soccer Picks

LeoMessi · 02-03-12, 10:21 AM

Pick #1 Spanish 2nd Division -> Villarreal B - FC Barcelona B over 2,5 goals

My first play in this forum will be a very common one, going with the over in Barcelona B matches is a consistent way to make money in this league. It's a team made to try players in a proffesional level, they cannot advance to 1st Division and they are way too good to be in relegation problems. When they have a bad streak of results, they just stop playing for fun and fight the games and always the bad streak ends.
In this particular game both teams have to make a lot of changes from their preferred lineups, home team because they lost more than 10 players this week due to market movements and visitors because some players are with the A team (Tello, Dos Santos, Sergi Roberto) This players missing the game takes some value from the picks but I think that after the last two wins in a row, Barcelona B will be in the "comfort" spot I said before whilst Villarreal B is fighting to avoid relegation zone, so I can see an open game with lots of alternatives in the score.
I will play this at -135 for 1x (I'd rather use decimal odds, if someone reads this I would like to know your preferences about which odds system you like the most)

Good luck to everyone. I'll post some picks for the weekend

DHB · 02-03-12, 03:28 PM

looks like every man and his dog are on this one.

good luck mate.

decimals!

showtiime · 02-03-12, 03:36 PM

Messi wtf you doing on sbr

southpaw74 · 02-03-12, 04:00 PM

Looks like another match where everyone likes it so it burys the board

LeoMessi · 02-03-12, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by LeoMessi

Pick #1 Spanish 2nd Division -> Villarreal B - FC Barcelona B over 2,5 goals

My first play in this forum will be a very common one, going with the over in Barcelona B matches is a consistent way to make money in this league. It's a team made to try players in a proffesional level, they cannot advance to 1st Division and they are way too good to be in relegation problems. When they have a bad streak of results, they just stop playing for fun and fight the games and always the bad streak ends.
In this particular game both teams have to make a lot of changes from their preferred lineups, home team because they lost more than 10 players this week due to market movements and visitors because some players are with the A team (Tello, Dos Santos, Sergi Roberto) This players missing the game takes some value from the picks but I think that after the last two wins in a row, Barcelona B will be in the "comfort" spot I said before whilst Villarreal B is fighting to avoid relegation zone, so I can see an open game with lots of alternatives in the score.
I will play this at -135 for 1x (I'd rather use decimal odds, if someone reads this I would like to know your preferences about which odds system you like the most)

Good luck to everyone. I'll post some picks for the weekend

Failed pick. Not much to say. If someone watched the match, would agree with me that 0-0 at the end is unreal. So many chances and a very open game, even when Villarreal had a man sent off they keep trying to score. In soccer it's always decisive the first goal. I thought today it will come early because of the unexperienced player, but it never came so nothing else to say. Forget this one and start working on the weekend. More picks to come. Sorry if you tailed me.

Season results so far in SBR:

0-1 -1.4 units

LeoMessi · 02-03-12, 11:19 PM

Quick picks for saturday

I will be out today so I will write here my picks for saturday. All the picks are done to win one unit, and the odds I made them will be from -130 to -105. I will have more time for sunday to make writeups and discuss anything with you, but today I like a lot of plays, so here they are:

Spanish 1st division

Play #2 Levante -0,25 AH vs Racing Santander
Play #3 Bilbao - Espanyol over 2,25 goals
Play #4 Mallorca -0,25 AH vs Betis
Play #5 Barcelona -2,5 AH vs Real Sociedad
Play #6 Barcelona - Real Sociedad over 3,5 goals

Spanish 2nd Division

Play #7 Celta de Vigo - Murcia over 2,25 goals
Play #8 Elche -0,75 AH vs Girona
Play #9 Elche - Girona over 2,25
Play #10 Almeria -0,25 AH vs Córdoba
Play #11 Almería - Córdoba over 2 goals

English Premier League

Play #12 Arsenal -1,5 AH vs Blackburn
Play #13 Arsenal - Blackburn over 2,75 goals
Play #14 Bolton +0,5 AH
Play #15 Norwich - Bolton over 2,5 goals
Play #16 West Bromwich Albion - Swansea over 2,25 goals
Play #17 Stoke City -0,25 AH vs Sunderland

No big surprises. Home favourites and a lot of overs as I think the matchups these weekend are favorable to overs. Good luck to everyone. I will update this post with the results and a little commentary of the matches. Let's make some money this saturday

TonyDimy · 02-04-12, 03:22 AM

If someone watched the match, would agree with me that 0-0 at the end is unreal. So many chances and a very open game

wut? Both teams played like crap. Barca began to play only when there was about 10 minutes left in the game. The first half was just horrible to watch, I'd rather kill myself if someone would force me to watch this game again.

LeoMessi · 02-04-12, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by TonyDimy

wut? Both teams played like crap. Barca began to play only when there was about 10 minutes left in the game. The first half was just horrible to watch, I'd rather kill myself if someone would force me to watch this game again.

I'm sorry but I have to disagree. It was not the best game I've watched, that's true, but chances enough to score early on in the match. If you expect to watch something like Barcelona A team then I understand you're disappointed, but it was an open game, that's all I say. Poor shooting and lack of a good last pass, but open, and when you play an over, with an open game and poor defenses your chances of hitting are usually EV+. Anyway, I appreciate your answer and even if in this particular match we don't agree, I'd like to discuss more in other games. Any feedback is very welcome. Let's hit some winners today

corgon · 02-04-12, 06:11 AM

I must agree

LeoMessi · 02-04-12, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by LeoMessi

Quick picks for saturday

I will be out today so I will write here my picks for saturday. All the picks are done to win one unit, and the odds I made them will be from -130 to -105. I will have more time for sunday to make writeups and discuss anything with you, but today I like a lot of plays, so here they are:

Spanish 1st division

Play #2 Levante -0,25 AH vs Racing Santander -0,55x
Play #3 Bilbao - Espanyol over 2,25 goals +1x
Play #4 Mallorca -0,25 AH vs Betis +1x
Play #5 Barcelona -2,5 AH vs Real Sociedad -1.2x
Play #6 Barcelona - Real Sociedad over 3,5 goals -1.2x

Spanish 2nd Division

Play #7 Celta de Vigo - Murcia over 2,25 goals -1.2x
Play #8 Elche -0,75 AH vs Girona +0.5x
Play #9 Elche - Girona over 2,25 -1.25x
Play #10 Almeria -0,25 AH vs Córdoba +1x
Play #11 Almería - Córdoba over 2 goals +1x

English Premier League

Play #12 Arsenal -1,5 AH vs Blackburn +1x
Play #13 Arsenal - Blackburn over 2,75 goals +1x
Play #14 Bolton +0,5 AH -1.15x
Play #15 Norwich - Bolton over 2,5 goals -1.35x
Play #16 West Bromwich Albion - Swansea over 2,25 goals +1x
Play #17 Stoke City -0,25 AH vs Sunderland -1.2x

No big surprises. Home favourites and a lot of overs as I think the matchups these weekend are favorable to overs. Good luck to everyone. I will update this post with the results and a little commentary of the matches. Let's make some money this saturday

Final result, -1.6 units today. Very, very frustrating day. Barcelona game ended being a 2.4 units loss when it should be +2 units even at halftime. No more excuses, let's keep working and the results will come. More picks for tomorrow. Best of luck for everyone

The Hot Pepper · 02-04-12, 06:58 PM

I hope both real madrid and barcelona players get gangbannged by rabid gorillas.

LeoMessi · 02-04-12, 07:10 PM

Picks for Sunday

Play #18 Sporting de Gijón - Osasuna This is a special pick. I did it in bet365 and I don't know if it's available in other bookies. For this first pick i'm raising the stakes and playing to win 2 units. The pick is on the bookings, over 6.5 bookings (yellow card=1 point, red card=2 points) @1,85 decimal odds

Play #19 Sevilla -0,5 AH vs Villarreal. Sevilla must end their bad streak of results at home against Villarreal. I can see a lot of value in the 1.84 odds. Villarreal signed a new striker this week, but if you remember the match between this 2 teams in the first half of the league, Sevilla started winning and Villarreal only managed to score and then take the lead because of italian striker Rossi's great performance. In all the individual matchups all over the field, Sevilla had advantages, both attacking and defending. I can't see any real danger in Villarreal's attack and solid Sevilla defense shouldn't have problems stopping them. Villarreal defense, in the other hand, will have a really tough evening against powerful Sevilla attack. If this match was played in Villarreal I'd understand the odds, but here I have to go with home team.

More picks to come tomorrow

LeoMessi · 02-04-12, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by The Hot Pepper

I hope both real madrid and barcelona players get gangbannged by rabid gorillas.

I agree with you that we all had a lot of expectations in this two teams today, but if I'm honest I didn't play anything in Real Madrid's game even when this year is by far the team with which I made more money. The reason: Getafe's coach always keep games close against top teams. Even last year with Levante he suffered big losses in Bernabeu, but he was able to win at home against Real (a meaningless game, that's true). I don't know, this kind of memories kept me away from playing Madrid AH today. Next week, at home, will be a different story. AH and over for the game, I can tell you now that I will make those 2 big bets in Real Madrid - Levante. But, all this said, yes I'm with you hoping they "get gangbannged by rabid gorillas"

LeoMessi · 02-05-12, 03:34 AM

Play #20 Aston Villa +0.5 AH

Play #21 Newcastle vs Aston Villa over 2,25 goals

Writeup to come later

TonyDimy · 02-05-12, 03:40 AM

Very, very frustrating day. Barcelona game ended being a 2.4 units loss when it should be +2 units even at halftime.

They played like crap again. Stop your excuses.

LeoMessi · 02-05-12, 06:07 AM

Originally posted by TonyDimy

They played like crap again. Stop your excuses.

Even playing like they did yesterday, they should have scored at least 4 goals. If you don't agree with that, I think we are talking about a different match... Did you see what Messi didn't score in the first half? And Fabregas? And the goal that didn't count because unfortunately Alves was inside the goal line and went out for no reason? They don't need to play well to score lots of goals. But no problem, you see it one way, I see it another way. That's the beauty of soccer I guess

LeoMessi · 02-06-12, 01:10 PM

What a bad weekend. Bad picks, no doubt I chose the wrong ones. However, I will keep working and hopefully the good results begin to come.

Results to date: 21 plays (9W-12L) -7.4units

Play #22 Granada vs Málaga over 2,25 goals x2 units

Over is the common result in matches played on monday in La Liga. I know it's a stupid stat to follow, but it has hit 80% since last year started the matches on monday, so maybe it's not so random as it looks.

Granada is struggling to avoid relegation and Malaga is now out of the places for european competitions. A draw here would be of no help for anyone. I expect Malaga to control the game and Granada to fight hard to steal balls and counterattack, which has been their only dangerous weapon this season. Usually at home they cannot play like that, but with Malaga, as they did with other teams that like to have a lot of possession, they can and I think the will.
Good luck to everyone

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:30 PM

can we get a goal inthis first half?

jesus... come on, guys

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:31 PM

28 min in. they aint scoring jack

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:32 PM

in 7 of last malaga 8 games.. there was a goal in the 1st half

they aint scoring shit today

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:33 PM

8 out of last 9 for Granada

lucky me that I get the game where they don't get 1 goal in the first half

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:34 PM

32 min.. nothing

baskets · 02-06-12, 03:36 PM

3 corners in a row.. nothing

34 minutes

0-0

**** me

laxbrah420 · 02-06-12, 04:03 PM

I just want to say it's an incredible honor to have you post here and that your English is better than I expected it would be

LeoMessi · 02-06-12, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by laxbrah420

I just want to say it's an incredible honor to have you post here and that your English is better than I expected it would be

LOL, I use Google translator, but it's an honor for me too

LeoMessi · 02-06-12, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by LeoMessi

Play #22 Granada vs Málaga over 2,25 goals x2 units

Over is the common result in matches played on monday in La Liga. I know it's a stupid stat to follow, but it has hit 80% since last year started the matches on monday, so maybe it's not so random as it looks.

Granada is struggling to avoid relegation and Malaga is now out of the places for european competitions. A draw here would be of no help for anyone. I expect Malaga to control the game and Granada to fight hard to steal balls and counterattack, which has been their only dangerous weapon this season. Usually at home they cannot play like that, but with Malaga, as they did with other teams that like to have a lot of possession, they can and I think the will.
Good luck to everyone

After a scoreless first half I still had no doubts about this play. The pace of the game was high, there were chances enough to score more than one goal and if you watched the whole game, when they were tied 1-1 neither team slowed the rythm of play, so I think the play was right.

1-0 today +2 units.

Global results: 10-12 -5.4 units

More picks to come tomorrow or on wednesday

baskets · 02-06-12, 07:34 PM

great pick, Messi

you pulled that out of the hat with 3 in the 2nd half.... unfortunately, I had 1half over 1. unreal slap in the face for me

congrats on your win, though

LeoMessi · 02-06-12, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by baskets

great pick, Messi

you pulled that out of the hat with 3 in the 2nd half.... unfortunately, I had 1half over 1. unreal slap in the face for me

congrats on your win, though

I also had a few bucks in the 1st Half over and I can't believe they didn't score until 2half. In the first minute they could have been 0-1 with a very clear chance for Maresca. Thank you for your congrats, my confidence really needed this win

LeoMessi · 02-13-12, 02:42 PM

Hello everyone, after one week out, in which I made some bets but not big ones really, I'm back here with my Monday over.

Play #23 Real Sociedad vs Sevilla over 2,5 goals @1,84 decimal odds
Play #24 Real Sociedad Sevilla over 0,75 goals HalfTime @1,7 decimal odds

No time for a full writeup, but I think the logic behind this over is unquestionable, we have two teams that need a win, and Sevilla has changed his defensive minded coach for the offesnsive minded Michel (former Real Madrid player). Real Sociedad at home is a dangerous team, so I can see both teams scoring with the lineups they present (Vela and Aguirretxe in my oppinion are the two best players of the team) and Negredo, Del Moral Navas and Reyes in Sevilla's starting XI)
Good luck us and let's cash this Monday Night Over once again