Ggg ;)

[GGG]

Crusaders -1 went up in 2.10 earlier today. It's on the way down to the 1.80s again now.
Still available at some books at around odds 2.00 which definitely represents some value.

[Romanov]

tailing your two bigger plays today. my book isn't offering bayern by 1

[GGG]

Ok. It might be Gladbach - Bayern (1-0), X at some Eurobookies.

[GGG]

PSG (to score) over 2.5 goals, is now down in odds 1.61. I wouldnt recommend betting it that low.
Crusaders -1 have dropped, as expected, down to the 1.80s again.

[Romanov]

i got similar #s to yours. my books is only offering exact scores like bayern 2-1 for that match. thx for the plays. best of luck today!

[GGG]

Alright. Thank you.

[GGG]

---------------------
Total +/-: +11.082
---------------------
Week 01: +4.586
Week 02: +7.871
(Current) Week 03: -1.375
---------------------
20. January.

Sable-sur-Sarthe FC - PSG, PSG (to score) over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 - 2.50 Units (W +2.00)
Moenchengladbach - Bayern, Bayern to win by exactly 1 goal @ 3.80 - 1.00 Unit. (L -1.00)
Crusaders - Ballymena Utd, Crusaders -1 (AH) @ 1.81 - 2.50 Units. (L -2.50)

20. January -1.50

Would have been nice with a profit today but Crusaders couldn't hold on to their early 2-0 lead.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

21. January.

Cardiff - Portsmouth, Cardiff @ 1.83 - 2.40 Units.
Reading - Hull, Hull +0.5 @ 1.88 - 2.00 Units.
West Ham - Nottingham Forest, West Ham -1 (AH) @ 2.04 - 2.00 Units.
Preston - Leyton Orient, Leyton Orient +0.5 @ 1.80 - 2.10 Units.
Notts County - MK Dons, MK Dons (to score) over 1.5 goals @ 2.12 - 2.20 Units.
Morecambe - Torquay, Torquay AH 0 @ 2.03 - 1.75 Units.
Cheltenham - Bristol Rovers, Cheltenham @ 1.82 - 2.35 Units.
Fulham - Newcastle, Fulham @ 2.03 - 1.75 Units.
Babelsberg - Burghausen, Babelsberg -0.25 @ 1.96 - 3.05 Units.
Oberhausen - Preussen Munster, Over 2.5 @ 2.29 - 1.65 Units.
Hoffenheim - Hannover 96, Both teams to score @ 1.83 - 1.65 Units.
Wycombe - Rochdale, Rochdale AH 0 @ 2.23 - 2.00 Units.

Our week is most likely gonna be decided this Saturday.

[justin81]

What was your reasoning for Bayern by 1 goal? (just want to know)

[PHyldahl]

Respect that you have so many leagues in your arsenal and are doing well. hope you'll continue. feel free not answer this question, but what's your statistics like in the EPL?

And in which leagues are you doing best? not only this season, but in your history..

ggglhf to ggg.

[GGG]

Yeah. That bet went to death pretty quickly.
I came up with the conclusion that Bayern would have the biggest chance of winning, but not big enough to qualify for a bet to win outright.
I had them at a 29.2% chance to win by exactly 1 goal @ 3.80 = 110.96 Betvalue.

I normally don't bet games under a betvalue of 105, even though, in theory, anything above 100 should be bet-able.
I believe it's impossible to come up with a 100% accurate chance estimate, so I rather be on the safe side.

[GGG]

PHyldahl my ROI at the EPL is at 117,80%.
Feel free to ask about all the leagues you want. I got all the stats.

My best league is no doubt the Norwegian Tippeliga at 133,30% ROI
My second best league is the Brazil, Serie A at 129,44% ROI

My worst league is Sweden, Superettan at 57,31% ROI. (I've given up capping this one)
My second worst is UEFA, Champions League at 97,08% ROI

[PickApprentice]

Your way will only work if you flat bet, and it is really a long term perspective like that.

[PickApprentice]

any games this weekend on English Premier League?

[GGG]

Your way will only work if you flat bet, and it is really a long term perspective like that.

?
It has been working for me for a long time now
I've been betting with my customized unit sizes all the time, which increased my ROI by around 2-4% since I launched it. I'm using some special made equations to figure out what my unit size should be. I started out with betting by using the Kelly Equation as I got more and more experience I figured out to make my own in order to gain max profit from my betting style.

I'm not saying my own equations are perfect and I'm still making small adjustments as I go.
But in a couple of years, hopefully, they'll be as good as possible.

My best leagues are on a break right now.

[GGG]

any games this weekend on English Premier League?

All I have for EPL so far is Fulham - Newcastle, Fulham @ 2.03 - 1.75 Units.

I haven't loooked at any games for Sunday yet.

[GGG]

The Kelly Equation.
Chance * Allowed Risk (% of total bankroll)* Betvalue = % Of your bankroll you should stake on that bet.
Example: You have Manchester United - Manchester City. You determine that Manchester United have a 50% of winning the match. The odds are at 2.10, giving you a betvalue of 105.
You can always change the risk factor depending on how aggresive you wanna be betting.

(50% Winning Chance)*(0.3% Allowed Bankroll Risk)*(105 Betvalue)
0.5*0.03*105 = 1.575% of your bankroll should be bet on this bet.

It's a very simple equation but it really works if you're making estimates on the chance your bet have for a win.
Making a equation that is specially customized for your own betting style is of course the best. But if you do not have the needed stats for that you can get a lot out of the Kelly equation.
Unit staking is some of the most important in the betting world (imo) so you should really look into this. Flatbetting wont get you a maximum profit out of your bets.

If you're trying to do some serious valuebetting, start out with this equation. It works.

[GGG]

If anyone got any questions, feel free to ask, in the thread or by PM. I'm here to help.

[GGG]

Your way will only work if you flat bet, and it is really a long term perspective like that.

Since the start of the new year, my betting have been at a down trend. It's most likely because my best leagues are at a break.

Here's how it should be looking when everything is going as it should:

http://www.oddsbook.se/dk/groups/allsvenskan-se/forum/topic/westcoasts-spil-27-juni/?topic_page=1&num=15

http://www.oddsbook.se/dk/groups/other-european-leagues/forum/topic/2410-3010-westcoast/?topic_page=1&num=15

I'm Westcoast and Westcoast2
I'm not at that forum anymore as it's dead.

[brunofortes]

PHyldahl my ROI at the EPL is at 117,80%.
Feel free to ask about all the leagues you want. I got all the stats.

My best league is no doubt the Norwegian Tippeliga at 133,30% ROI
My second best league is the Brazil, Serie A at 129,44% ROI

My worst league is Sweden, Superettan at 57,31% ROI. (I've given up capping this one)
My second worst is UEFA, Champions League at 97,08% ROI

133% ROI ?
is that even possible ?
whats your ROI overall and with how many bets ?

[GGG]

100% being my own money.
The 33% being the profit.

I'm used to the Danish term of ROI.
The international way might be 33,30% ROI.
Sorry for the confusion.

[brunofortes]

I guess even tho..
one of the most sucessfull sport bettors i heard about had roi around 8-9% on nba
could you reveals how many bets you made ?

[GGG]

Sure.
After 3122 bets it's at 117.4%. or at 17.4% however you wanna put it.

Imo, capping NBA is hard as hell.
The league is getting so much attention so it's obviously a lot harder to cap than lesser known soccer leagues.

[brunofortes]

So how well you go at spanish, italian and english football leagues ?

[GGG]

Not really that good at the Spanish or Italian leagues. I'm not actively betting the Italian Serie A atm as I feel it's kinda random. But here are the stats for them.

Spain, Primera Division 106.86%
Italy, Serie A 101,28%
England, Premier League 117,80%
England, Championship 108.33%
England, League 1 122,65%
England, League 2 119,22%
England, Blue Square Premier 120.20%

[brunofortes]

Cool! nice results !
so what do you think is still very exploitable ? and do you watch minor leagues online ? where ?

[GGG]

Am I allowed to link to streaming sites?

I'm not watching every single game, I wouldnt have time for that obviously.'
I haven't come across one single streamed Blue Square Premier match so far. It's very rare they got TV coverage. Same thing for League 2.

Imo, the soccer market, is just there waiting for people to make cash on it.
It's so gigantic that you will always be able to find value.

I really don't get people who spend their life trying to cap NBA or NFL.
The bookies are ready for those high profile matches, you have to be very sharp to cap those.

[GGG]

Are you familiar with the terms valuebetting and money management? Because before starting betting soccer you have to be able to master those. There are plenty of articles around the internet about it. If you don't know about it, I suggest you read up on some of it.

I'm gonna hit the bed, it's 03:44 at my place.

[brunofortes]

Am I allowed to link to streaming sites?

I'm not watching every single game, I wouldnt have time for that obviously.'
I haven't come across one single streamed Blue Square Premier match so far. It's very rare they got TV coverage. Same thing for League 2.

Imo, the soccer market, is just there waiting for people to make cash on it.
It's so gigantic that you will always be able to find value.

i know some streaming sites, but they have those minor leagues ?
why do you think norwegian soccer is so profitable ?
same question for brazil...

Are you familiar with the terms valuebetting and money management? Because before starting betting you have to be able to master those.

yes, im familiar !

[GGG]

No. Most minor leagues are not streamed.

I don't know why I'm doing best at Brazil and Norway.
I guess it's different from person to person.

I'll be glad to help you out a bit but I'm kinda tired and I wanna go to sleep before the damn birds outside my window wake up ;D
Hit me with a PM sometime later today/tomorrow, whatever timezone you're in.

[brunofortes]

Cool ! np
definitly contact you !
cya

[PickApprentice]

Very interesting!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

I wanna go to sleep before the damn birds outside my window wake up ;D

I have the same problem here...

[GGG]

21. January.

Cardiff - Portsmouth, Cardiff @ 1.83 - 2.40 Units. (+1.992)
Reading - Hull, Hull +0.5 @ 1.88 - 2.00 Units. (+1.76)
West Ham - Nottingham Forest, West Ham -1 (AH) @ 2.04 - 2.00 Units. (+0)
Preston - Leyton Orient, Leyton Orient +0.5 @ 1.80 - 2.10 Units. (W +1.68)
Notts County - MK Dons, MK Dons (to score) over 1.5 goals @ 2.12 - 2.20 Units. (-2.20)
Morecambe - Torquay, Torquay AH 0 @ 2.03 - 1.75 Units. (+1.8025)
Cheltenham - Bristol Rovers, Cheltenham @ 1.82 - 2.35 Units. (L-2.35)
Fulham - Newcastle, Fulham @ 2.03 - 1.75 Units. (+1.8025)
Babelsberg - Burghausen, Babelsberg -0.25 @ 1.96 - 3.05 Units. (-3.05)
Oberhausen - Preussen Munster, Over 2.5 @ 2.29 - 1.65 Units. (+2.1285)
Hoffenheim - Hannover 96, Both teams to score @ 1.83 - 1.65 Units. (-1.65)
Wycombe - Rochdale, Rochdale AH 0 @ 2.23 - 2.00 Units.(-2.00)

-0.0845
Very disappointing.
---------------------
Total +/-: +10.9975
---------------------
Week 01: +4.586
Week 02: +7.871
(Current) Week 03: -1.4595
---------------------

22. January
Levante - Zaragoza, Zaragoza DNB @ 3.30 - 1.50 Units
Palermo - Genoa, Over 2.5 @ 2.00 - 2.20 Units. (+2.20)
Westerlo - Standard Liege, Standard Liege @ 1.87 - 2.50 Units.
Barcelona B - Xerez, Xerez +0.5 @ 2.10 - 2.50 Units.
Cordoba - Celta Vigo, Celta Vigo AH 0 @ 2.06 - 1.90 Units. (+0)

[GGG]

22. January
Levante - Zaragoza, Zaragoza DNB @ 3.30 - 1.50 Units (+0)
Palermo - Genoa, Over 2.5 @ 2.00 - 2.20 Units. (+2.20)
Westerlo - Standard Liege, Standard Liege @ 1.87 - 2.50 Units. (-2.50)
Barcelona B - Xerez, Xerez +0.5 @ 2.10 - 2.50 Units. (-2.50)
Cordoba - Celta Vigo, Celta Vigo AH 0 @ 2.06 - 1.90 Units. (+0)

-2.8

Total +/-: +8.1975
---------------------
Week 01: +4.586
Week 02: +7.871
Week 03: -4.2595
(Current) Week 04: +0
---------------------

24. January.
Kidderminster - York, Kidderminster AH 0 @ 1.91 - 2.00 Units.
AFC Wimbledon - Macclesfield, AFC Wimbledon -0.25 @ 1.88 - 2.00 Units.
Ebbsfleet - Tamworth, Over 3.5 @ 2.70 - 2.25 Units
Kettering - Gateshead, Gateshead -1.25 @ 1.875 - 2.80 Units.

[GGG]

Ebbsfleet United - Tamworth, Ebbsfleet -0.25 @ 1.95 - 2.00 Units