Thursday's [12/1] Europa League Ninja Plays

[EaglesPhan36]

Lokomotiv Moskva-Sturm Graz Over 2.5 [-131]
The Russians have scored at least two in three of their four group matches in the EL and should be looking forward to today's match after recent failures in the Russian Premier League. Sturm Graz have conceded at least twice in three of their four group matches. Currently, they carry a four match road streak where they have given up three goals in each match. The added pressure here for the Austrians is not only do they need a win to give themselves any hope of having something to play for on the final match day .. they need to do it by a large margin to overturn goal differential where the Russians hold a big edge standing in 2nd place, six points ahead of Sturm Graz. The Austrians may not always be at their best, but in their last 15 road matches, they have only failed to score twice and both times - they gave up three goals to make the OVER a winner. Eight straight on the road in all competitions for them have gone OVERs.

[cherub]

Very solid pick! Backing it + PSG tonight. All other EURO-league games are way too sketchy for any real action.

(new here, hi hi!)

[EaglesPhan36]

Also going for the Draw Project Today. Pick Two. Split & Profit. That's the goal.

1pm ET Starts
Twente-Fulham +229
AEK Athens-Anderlecht +259

[serc]

I hope you hit this one.

[southpaw74]

I was looking at lokomotiv last night and was going to take 1H over and game over. Glad you like it to!

[ThePatriots1988]

Hi,

I'm new to the forum, so be nice :-)
To be honest I don't necessarily see an "over 2,5" in the Lok vs Graz match. I project sth. like 2.3 goals in this game. So it's quite possible that you are right, but far from a sure pick.

I'd rather take the Athens vs. Anderlecht game (I project sth. around 3,9! goals - should be an over 2.5 easily.
If you like betting over/under I'd pick Stoke vs. Kiew under (I project 1,8 goals) and Twente vs Fulham over (where i see sth. around 3,7 goals scored)...

Good luck anyways!

[onacloud]

Hi,

I'm new to the forum, so be nice :-)
To be honest I don't necessarily see an "over 2,5" in the Lok vs Graz match. I project sth. like 2.3 goals in this game. So it's quite possible that you are right, but far from a sure pick.

I'd rather take the Athens vs. Anderlecht game (I project sth. around 3,9! goals - should be an over 2.5 easily.
If you like betting over/under I'd pick Stoke vs. Kiew under (I project 1,8 goals) and Twente vs Fulham over (where i see sth. around 3,7 goals scored)...

Good luck anyways!

Where do you get these projections? You said in the Athens game you project 3.9 goals? The O2.5 is only -105 ... Can you explain your "projection"

[alansmith23]

I don't know aek sits and defends at home anderlecht is already thru...

[birdmanweezy]

love that over

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't know aek sits and defends at home anderlecht is already thru...

Precisely why I am trying the draw in that one personally.

[EaglesPhan36]

More of the Draw Project

3:05pm Starts
Vaslui-Lazio +255
Salzburg-PSG +245

[ThePatriots1988]

I've developed some sort of formular based on statistics to evaluate each game. It's pretty complicated, but I take variables such as goals scored, home and away performance, value of the team, injuries etc. into account and weigth these variables differently. I'll give you an example:
AEK Athens has one of the worse defenses in this years EuropeLeague: 12 goals already, which averages 3 each game. On the other hand Anderlecht has a decent offense: 11 goals scored (ave. 2,75).

Before I projected the results I've evaluated all defenses/offenses of the EuropeLeague participants by taking their performence in international games and their local league into account and ranked them from 1 to 48. I then assigned different multipliers according to their rank (e.g. AEK Athens has the 44th worst defense in this years Europe League, therfore I value a goal against them about 25% less than against the average EuropeLeague team - please note, that I did not just count the goals they've received - I'm not stupid ).
I figured, that it's far easier to score against bad teams, so I multiply the number of goals scored against each team by the teams multiplier to get the "realistic number of goals" scored and received (example: if AEK Athens plays against a great offense like Chelsea - end result 4:0 Chelsea - , I lower the number of goals the received by 25%, which makes 3, etc..
I then use this more accurate statistic to predict the number of goals in each match. I'd like to explain the way I evaluate in more detail, but as you all noticed my English is pretty bad (I'm German) and so I'll leave it with that.
Just note, that these numbers are still "bad" predictions because the sample size is too small - so I have to use more local leagues results (which I value again), but in average these predictions are more off then my local league predictions (with a much bigger sample size). Then's why I'm rather careful with those numbers and I only use them as one hint to pick the "right" result.

@alansmith23: You might be right about that, but Athens is out aswell, which means the result won't really count. So I expect a rather offensive game. I do also think that Athens will attack right away because the don't want to leave the EuropeLeague season without a single point. It's also there last chance to impress their home fans this season in an international game.

[ad617]

loko is a bunch of bums and the austrians are toothless...these guys did not come to play. no hate, EP - i love your picks

[southpaw74]

That's interesting info patriot. The important question is does it actually win more than lose using that formula??

[ThePatriots1988]

@southpaw: well, to be honest I'm still testing the formula on an international level. In the German Bundesliga it works fine for me. The tough problem is not necessarilliy to predict the over/under, but to relate this to the odds and to calculate the expected value.

[pinnerpsk]

Lokomotiv Moskva-Sturm Graz Over 2.5 [-131]


Three goals in the 2nd half. Nice!

[ad617]

EP - how many of your overs fukkin cash after 0-0 ht? unreal...ur the sickest

[milkncereal]

. i dont think the explosion second half was a fluke....i think sturm graz was tired and had to go for broke in the second half

[dxunchuk]

its interesting patriot have you deduced your formula yourself, or you took it from somewhere your post remind me the movie "moneyball" which I watched this days , in general similar formula for choosing players for teams

[southpaw74]

Well Athens is already a winner 2-1 at half. Good call to both EP and patriot. Always nice to start the day at plus money

[cherub]

Very nice but that Twente wager was always very questionable. Such as formula needs serious tweaking to be a useful tool outside of individual league so if I used it - I'd probably stick to the league I know and just keep plugging away. Knowledge + Heart = Monetary bliss!

[EaglesPhan36]

EP - how many of your overs fukkin cash after 0-0 ht? unreal...ur the sickest

Been a few lately, but I never like the chances when that happens. Thought the draw project was going to hit in the early starts, but Twente gets a goal in the 89th minute. Hopefully the 2nd wave of matches we can snag a draw and some profit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Got the Vaslui-Lazio draw, so at least got the split there.