Vaughany's Soccer Plays...

[Simen236]

Scheisse Should have played it. Well, you never know.

[hundo]

Thanks Vaughany, appreciate the help!

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

Yoo Hoo Koln won!

YooHoo Koln won 2-0!!!



for da house!

[Vaughany]

One small play tonight is Mansfield PK @ +108 away at Wrexham...

Wrexham are rightly the favourite as they are very difficult to beat at home (lost 2 games, and have +20 goal difference), but I think this Mansfield side have enough quality to get at least a draw. Mansfield are on fire at the moment with 9 wins on the bounce, and I'm sure that some will be betting on Wrexham with the theory that Mansfield's run has to come to an end eventually, but I don't think it will end quite yet, and is perhaps more likely to end against one of the weaker teams in the division who Mansfield may over-look and be complacent against.

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

I am tailing you Vaughany

Cheers from across the pond.

Love your write ups and alll the great info!

Let's get the win!




I loved that Koln Win yesterday!! It confirmed one of my picks.

[Vaughany]

FC Twente PK @ -173 away at Groningen...

]Also added Under 3 goals @ -185...

At first glance the play on Twente PK seems a little risky as Twente are one of the most out-of-form teams in the league with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 games (no victories so far this year). Groningen on the other hand have improved recently and have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 home games, however, those two wins were against mediocre opposition in RKC and Zwolle (two relegation candidates). Groningen have won 4 games at home this season, and all 4 have come against teams from the bottom half of table in Heracles, Roda, and aforementioned RJC and Zwolle. Groningen's main issue has been their weak attack. Their top scorer this season is a midfielder de Leeuw with 8 goals, followed by striker Zeefuik's 3 goals. Only bottom of table Willem II and fourth from bottom Zwolle have scored fewer goals than Groningen. Recently, scoring goals has also been an issue for Twente. Since the continuation of the league in January after the winter break, Twente have only scored 5 goals in 8 games which is very unlike them and the main reason why they haven't been able to win a game yet. To put that in to perspective, Twente were able to score 6 goals in just their last 2 games before the winter break when they beat Hercules 3-2 at home then beat AZ 3-0 away! Aside from the fact that Twente dont have a prolific goal-scoring striker like they have in the past with Janko in 2010/11 season, or De Jong last season, I believe this dip in attacking quality has coincided with Nacer Chadli being out injured for past couple months. Chadli is back in training and should feature this wknd although it's unlikely he'll start the game. There is a lot of reliance on top scorer Dusan Tadic (26 apps, 11 goals, 11 assists) to create chances and score goals for Twente, and Groningen will be paying particularly attention to him as he is a former player of theirs and where he made his name before joining Twente.

Some other things to consider:

- Twente beat Groningen 4-1 in the reverse fixture back in August 2012. Twente also won 4-1 in January earlier on that year;

- Twente have won 1, drawn 2 in last 3 visits to Groningen;

- Only 2 out of a total 16 games between these two at Groningen's ground have gone over 3 goals since 1993 (16 games);

- Groningen have midfielder Rasmus Lindgren suspended, but Twente also have a defensive mid suspended in Wout Brama;

- Only RKC matches average fewer goals per game (2.35) in the league compared to Groningen and Twente who each average 2.5 goals per game;

- Twente have only lost 3 games on their travels, and have conceded the fewest goals away from home with just 12, 4 less than the next best away defence of Vitesse. Two of those away losses were against the two top teams in the Eredivisie in Ajax and PSV, while the third loss was their most recent away game to Heerenveen (most in-form team in the league outside of the big three of Ajax, PSV, and Feyenoord) where Twente had 59% possession but just couldnt convert their chances again;

- Twente were very unlucky to not get at least a point out of their last game against Vitesse. The ref didn't give a blatant penalty, and they missed a lot of great chances (10 shots on target compared to Vitesse's 5, 5 shots wide compared to Vitesse's 1).


I think it's only a matter of time before Twente start finding the net again and their bad run has to come to an end sooner or later! IMO Groningen with their average attack aren't the type of team that are going to make Twente pay for not converting their chances like other teams have done who have good attacking options (Ajax, Vitesse, and Heerenveen).

Dortmund -1 A.H. @ -160 at home to Freiburg...

Siena/Cagliari Over 2 Goals @ -143...

Southampton/Liverpool Over 2.75 Goals @ -108...

In the past Liverpool have struggled away at Southampton and the games have usually been tight and low-scoring with last 4 games between these two being under 2.5 and Liverpool have lost last two at St Mary's 2-0 each time. However, these two games were back in 2005 and 2004, and this year these two have been an Over bettor's dream! Games involving Liverpool average 3.17 goals per game (second highest in league after Man Utd), while Southampton matches average 3.10 (joint 5th highest in league with Newcastle). Every game Liverpool have had away from home in 2013 has seen at least 3 goals, and their last 8 away games has had at least 3 goals. Suarez is in red-hot form having scored 7 goals in last 4 games in League and Europa and is top scorer in the league and Gerrard and Sturridge are also looking very dangerous at moment.

Saarbrucken +0.25 A.H. @ -112 away at Unterhaching...

Osijek +0.25 A.H. @ Evens away at Slaven Koprivnica (Croatia 1.HNL)...

Slaven are always tough to beat at their ground, but they are in a bad run of form and sacked their manager last week after losing 2-0 at home to relegation candidate Cibalia. Slaven will be without their most important player - experienced forward Davor Vugrinec (15 apps, 8 goals) who has a virus. Also, key defenders Maras (20 apps, 1 goal), Grgic (18 apps, 1 goal), and Bubnjic (18 apps, 1 goal) will all be missing, as well as important midfielders Gregurina (14 apps, 1 goal), and Canadija (17 apps, 3 goals). Osijek are coming off two 0-0 away draws on the bounce, which were against the two teams who have the best home records in the league in Split and Dinamo Zagreb. So with this in mind combined with key players being out for Slaven I dont see why the away side Osijek cant get another draw at least today.

fuuck it, thts got me all nostalgic about tht great Depor side so gonna have to take that as a sign and play them!

Deportivo PK @ -157 at home to Celta Vigo...

Just gotta hope Iago Alpas has a bad game!

Playing Unterhaching PK @ -173 live.... can't see Saarbucken scoring...pretty much playing for the 0-0

Adding Emmen +1 A.H. @ -139 away at De Graafschap...

Emmen are the 4th most in-form team in the league with 4 wins on the bounce, including a 2-1 win away at promotion contenders MVV. THey have lost 6 games away from home this season and have only lost by more than a 1 goal margin on two occasions which were their first two away games back in August last year. The main reason for playing this though is because De Graafschap's top-scorer Anco Jansen (26 apps, 17 goals) is suspended. He has scored almost 50% of their total goals this season, and scored two in the 3-1 win at Emmen earlier in the season. Furthermore, they will also be without regular defenders J. Jansen (24 apps), van de Pavert (21 apps, 1 goal), and van Kouwen (17 apps), while Massop (16 apps, 1 goal), and midfielder Garcia-Calvete (16 apps, 1 goal) are doubtful.

PLayin the Over 3.5,4 live in Emmen game. Emmen have scored almost 60% of their total goals in second half of games, and also concede more in second half. Last time these two met Emmen lost 3-1 and all 4 goals were scored in second half. Think there's a chance this finishes 3-1 or 3-2

NAC Breda -0.75 A.H. @ -115 at home to Willem II...

Parlay (double): Man City PK (-200), & Catania PK (-275)...

Everton is always a very tough place to go and Man City don't have a great record there. The home side will also be very motivated to put in a hard-working performance after the embarrassing 3-0 loss at home to Wigan last weekend in the FA Cup. Nonetheless, they are still without GK Tim Howard and centre-back Jagielka who are key players, and I just don't trust their replacements Mucha and Heitinga against players of Man City's calibre.

Catania are solid at home, only thee losses with those coming against Juve, Inter, and Milan so nothing to be ashamed of there, plus they were all tight games. They were beating Inter 2-0 then fell apart in second-half, and were beating Milan 1-0 but then had Lodi sent off just after half-time and ended up losing 3-1. Udinese are not so great on their travels with just three wins. They will be without some key players like talisman and top-scorer Di Natale (25 apps, 15 goals, 2 assists), and leading assistant Lazzari (19 apps, 1 goal, 4 assists). Also be without Dusan Basta (19 apps, 1 goal), Heurtaux (15 apps), Domizzi (22 apps, 1 goal), Pasquale (17 apps, 1 goal), Pinzi (15 apps, 2 goals), and Maicosuel (18 apps, 1 goal).

The one thing stopping me from playing Catania ML is the possibility of Bergessio not being involved due to a knock who is key striker for Catania (23 apps, 8 goals, 3 assists).

Forgot about a small play on West Brom PK @ +126 just as a fade of Stoke! Probably be 1-1 or 2-2 tho. In 5 out of last 6 matches between these two the away side has been victorious (the other was a 1-1 draw)...so bodes well!

Small play on Hertha Berlin PK @ -118 away at 1860 Munchen...

1860's home form has not been good so far this year picking up just a point from their 3 games at the Allianz Arena. This includes a 1-0 loss to relegation battlers Bochum, in a game were the away side only had 10 players on pitch for 3 quarters of the game yet 1860 could still not score. I can't see them outscoring the league leaders Hertha today who have great attacking options in Ronny (25 apps, 13 goals), Allagui (16 apps, 6 goals) and Ramos (23 apps, 9 goals) who will all start, then Sandro Wagner (24 apps, 4 goals), Ben-Hatira (11 apps, 3 goals), and Ben Sahar (12 apps, 2 goals) on the bench who can come on and have a big impact if required.

Added:


Yokohama F Marinos ML @ -152 at home to Jubilo Iwata (J-League 1)...


Yokohama F Marinos have started the season in style beating Bellmare 4-2, and then crushing S-Pules 5-0 away last weekend. 36 old Brazilian vet Marquinhos is on fire scoring 5 of those 9 goals, and Japan Legend Shunsuke Nakamura is looking superb in midfield creating the chances. Jubilo on the other hand haven't looked very good in first two games drawing away at a Grampus side that are without the injured Joshua Kennedy and looking very weak going forward and will probably be lucky to finish in top-half of the table, and then losing at home to Ardija who are probably going to battling against relegation this season. It won't be easy, and I doubt Marinos will thrash them like they did at S-Pulse but I do think they will win 1-0 or 2-1.


Gamba Osaka -1 A.H. @ -110at home to Yokohama FC (J-League 2)....

Gamba Osaka were surprisingly relegated last season from the J-League and now find themselves as one of the favourites to win the J-2 after managing to keep hold of a lot of their key players. Experienced J-League players like Japan Internationals Yasuhito Endo and Yasuyuki Konno demonstrated their loyalty by sticking around despite still being good enough to play in the J-League. And other solid players with plenty of experience have also stayed such as Akira Kaji, Myojin, Futagawa, Ienaga, Leandro, Paulinho, Sato, and Hirai. All of these players could probably still play in the league above. Leandro in particular should flourish at this level, he scored 14 goals in 15 appearances last season in the J-League and if he'd of played closer to 25-30 games they might of been able to stay up as he'd of undoubtedly scored half a dozen more goals or so that could of been vital. In this league I'm expecting Leandro to be at the top of the goalscorers chart come the end of the season (as long as he can stay fit) with 20-25 goals at least, similar to BRazilian Davi who bagged 32 last year for Ventforet and was the main reason why they got promoted.

Adding Sunderland -0.5 @ -162 live-in-play (half-time) at home to Norwich...

Norwich down to 10 men, surely Sunderland won't screw me like Dundee Utd did against 10 men!

Ajax ML @ -124 live

Juventus PK @ -278 away at Bologna (live-bet at half-time)...

Chalky but don't see Juve losing this. Should of scored a couple in first half, in total control...should see Asamoah and Lichsteiner come on soon for Peluso and Padoin..

Parlay (treble): Sparta Prague PK (-450), Ajax PK (-300), & Velez PK (-350).

Chievo Verona PK @ -143 away at Pescara...


Dundee Utd -1 A.H. @ -159 at home to Dundee (Live-bet)...

Dundee down to 10 men, home side should win by at least 1 goal now

Atletico Madrid PK @ -199 away at Osasuna...

Expecting Simeone to have read the riot act after their first home loss of season last wknd and should see a fired-up performance. They are not good away from home but should still get at least a point at Osasuna, especially as their top-scorer Kike Soler (23 apps, 7 goals), and Chilean midfielder Francisco Silva who has been a solid signing are both out for the home side.

Newell's Old Boys PK @ -137 at home to River Plate...

Today's plays:


Koln PK @ -172 away at Dynamo Dresden (German 2. Bundesliga)...


Piast Gliwice PK @ -143 at home to Lechnia Gdansk (Poland Ekstraklasa)...

Was a toss up between playing this or the Over 2 goals. Both teams are not the best defensively, and both are in top 5 for highest goals per game average. However, Gdansk do seem to defender better away from home which would explain their better away record where they've only lost two games and conceded just 7 goals (second lowest in league after Lech Poznan's 5). They are also playing just one striker in Ricardinho and packing the midfield with 5 players which suggests a slightly more conservative approach.

I've watched Gdansk a couple times recently and not been impressed with them going forward or defensively. They are clearly missing Abdou Razak who was their top-scorer with 9 goals in 13 games before leaving for Gaziantepsor during Winter off-season, with replacement Rahoui not looking like he's at a similar level to Razak. I placed a live bet on Gdansk -0.5 in their last game (at home to Korona) after they went 1-0 up and Korona had had Kuzera sent-off after just 15 minutes. As Korona are yet to win a game on their travels and only drawn 3 I thought Gdansk would add at least one more and kill the game off and keep a clean sheet. Instead they struggled to score and actually went and conceded in the 54th min. They looked so poor defensively at times that I played the Over 2.75 goals live at 65min mark. Gdansk went on to score two in space of 6 minutes and I thought I was going to hit both the -0.5 live play and the Over 2.75, but they went and conceded a second against the 10 men in injury time. Conceding two goals against an average Korona team with only 10 men on pitch shows that they are not solid defensively, and I feel Gliwice have enough quality going forward in Ruben Jurando and Docekal to take advantage of this at home.

Record for plays (exluding parlays) since last Friday:

16 winners

4 pushes

5 losses


Parlays:

1 winner

1 loss

[hundo]

Yeah great job man, nice little run you are on!

[Vaughany]

Pending play:

Locking in this World Cup Qualifier play early doors...not sure if it will get better or not so just taking it now (either way I don't expect it to change drastically)...

Montenegro -0.75 A.H. @ -121 away at Moldova...

IMO Montenegro continue to be under-rated just because they are not a well known country and people tend to think "Montenegro, never heard of it!" Fact is they have two elite strikers in Jovetic and Vucinic and so are always good to back to score goals and to beat other Eastern-Bloc teams with average defenses. I've bet on Montenegro in each of their last 3 games, twice on the handicap away and at home against San Marino, and I also bet on the +0.5 when they were away at Ukraine and got very generous odds in that one too as they were massively under-rated despite having the better attack (and actually ended up winning 1-0 without Vucinic even playing). Both Vucinic and Jovetic are in good form, and they are supported by some solid players behind them who play at a decent level such as... defenders: Basa (Lille), Zverotic (Young Boys Bern), Savic (Fiorentina), Volkov (Partizan Belgrade), & Kecojevic (Gaziantepsor); midfielders: Novakovic (Amkar Perm), Drincic (Krasnodar), Pekovic (Greuther Furth), & Boskovic (Rapid Vienna); and back-up strikers in: Damjanovic (Seoul), and Delibasic (Rayo Vallecano). When you compare this team with Moldova's side Montenegro are clearly better in every position - especially in attack where there is a gulf in class. Montenegro should be winning this by at least 1 goal, and I'm expecting a 2-0 or 3-0 win.

[Vaughany]

Yokohama FC PK @ -135 away at Thespa Kusatsu...

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

How do you like this pick?

Citadella 0, -0.5 ????

Do you know anything about this team?

What soccer league are they in?

[onemoregoal]

http://www.flashscore.com - Most fixtures for the day.
They are in Seria B (Italy)

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

Thanks onemoregoal. How do you like this pick?

Is Vaughany around also?

[Vaughany]

Serie B is tough to cap. Can be erratic. One play I was interested in was Sassuolo PK away at Juve Stabia, but Sassulo have a couple of regular midfielders out in Missiroli and Bianchi so Im staying away

[SlowNsteady]

Nice week V! You are solid!

[Vaughany]

Citadella 0, -0.5 ????

Do you know anything about this team?

What soccer league are they in?

Citadella in Italy Serie B. THey dont have any players that stand-out, but they are a well organised and hard-working team that are solid at home losing just 3 games there. THey've beaten a couple of the top teams in the league at home such as Verona and leader Sassulo and they beat Spezia who they are playing tonight 3-0 earlier in season. However, Spezia had a players sent off in 58th min of that game that helped Citadella a lot. Spezia are a team that have great potential but have just flopped this season. They spent a lot of money for Serie B standards and have the best striker in the league in Sansovini. They have other talented players like Di Gennaro, Sammarco, Antenucci, and Okaka, but they have just not clicked and have been poor defensively at times. If anything I'd play Citadella PK (draw-no-bet) due to their strong home record, but on their day SPezia can beat any team in this league, and on paper they do have superior players to Citadella.

[Simen236]

Do you guys bet to really make money or just because it's fun? Do you think Yokohama looks most solid today?
Wrexham v. Mansfield postponed.

[gossie]

http://www.flashscore.com - Most fixtures for the day.
They are in Seria B (Italy)

there are several matches in England League Champ tonite, i am checking those

[Vaughany]

Do you guys bet to really make money or just because it's fun? Do you think Yokohama looks most solid today?

well I've made £3,800 since Feb 1st on soccer so it's not just for fun for me I guess!

I will give my thoughts on Yokohama play later

[Vaughany]

Empoli PK @ -111 away at Modena...

[Simen236]

well I've made £3,800 since Feb 1st on soccer so it's not just for fun for me I guess!

I will give my thoughts on Yokohama play later

Well... that's just awesome!!!

[Vaughany]

Empoli PK @ -111 away at Modena...

Haven't got much time to post my thoughts on this so will just post some key points:

- Empoli are the third most in-form team in the league, unbeaten in last 8 games home and away, and unbeaten in last 8 away games. The last away game that they lost in was back in November to Crotone who are very strong at home (8 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses) and Empoli had Signorelli sent off at 45min mark which made it an even tougher challenge. Empoli were still able to equalise in 70th min even with 10 men but Crotone managed to snatch a winner in 76th min and win 3-2. Their only other two away losses came 2nd in league Livorno and 7th in league Padova both in September and Empoli were without top-scorer Tavano for both those games. Ultimately, Empoli have the second-best away record in the league with 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses;

- Modena are on the opposite end of the form table with the third worst form in the league after collecting just 2 points out of their last 5 games home and away, which included a 2-0 loss at bottom of table Grosseto last weekend. From the end of September to the end of the year Modena went on a great run at home where they went 9 games without losing, winning 6 of those games. However, since the new year they are yet to win a home game, drawing 3 and losing 2;

- Modena will be without Captain and regular defender Armando Perna (30 apps) along with usual defensive partner Zoboli (26 apps, 1 goal). Midfielder Dalla Bona (14 apps), and striker Lazarevic (25 apps, 5 goals) are also unavailable;

- Empoli also have some issues defensively as experienced centre-back Pratali (19 apps, 2 goals) is still injured, and Hysaj (21 apps) is away with Albania Under 21 National team. However, they have Pietro Accardi who can come in and do a good job as he is an experienced player who has been a regular in Serie A before with Sampdoria;

- Empoli have arguably the best strike-force in the league with experienced strikers Maccarone (28 apps, 11 goals) and Tavano (25 apps, 15 goals) supported by talented Italy Under 21 International Saponara (26 apps, 9 goals). Few teams have a trio like that to choose from in this league, and as long as they are in sync Empoli can beat anybody in Serie B.

As long as the Empoli defense can contain top-scorer Matteo Ardemagni (29 apps, 17 goals) then they have a great chance of getting three points out of this and basically securing a play-off spot. Modena's recent poor run of games has coincided with Ardemagni only scoring 1 goal in his last 4 appearances, while his strike partner tonight Stanco has only scored 1 goal his last 20 appearances (albeit a lot of those were short substitute appearances). Modena have only beaten 1 top 6 side this season which was Livorno, and I dont expect that to change tonight.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

^^^^^^ Thats quite a write up for not having much time.

[Simen236]

Sorry for being a noob, but what does PK really mean? Pushing money if I lose?

[Vaughany]

^^^^^^ Thats quite a write up for not having much time.

ha yeah, well they were just random ramblings I'd done earlier when I was researching so just copy and pasted! I meant that I havent got time to check it or anything!

[Vaughany]

Sorry for being a noob, but what does PK really mean? Pushing money if I lose?

yep PK is "Pick-em" so same as Draw-no-bet...stake returned if it's a draw

[Vaughany]

Bear in mind that I've had a decent run of form in last week or so so I'm due a bad run! Could start tonight

[Vaughany]

double-post!

[hundo]

Eh no jinx! haha

[docholiday]

Any opinions on the England 2 Rochdale over 2.5?
Thanks

[Vaughany]

Empoli PK @ -111 away at Modena...

Haven't got much time to post my thoughts on this so will just post some key points:

- Empoli are the third most in-form team in the league, unbeaten in last 8 games home and away, and unbeaten in last 8 away games. The last away game that they lost in was back in November to Crotone who are very strong at home (8 wins, 3 draws, 3 losses) and Empoli had Signorelli sent off at 45min mark which made it an even tougher challenge. Empoli were still able to equalise in 70th min even with 10 men but Crotone managed to snatch a winner in 76th min and win 3-2. Their only other two away losses came 2nd in league Livorno and 7th in league Padova both in September and Empoli were without top-scorer Tavano for both those games. Ultimately, Empoli have the second-best away record in the league with 7 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses;

- Modena are on the opposite end of the form table with the third worst form in the league after collecting just 2 points out of their last 5 games home and away, which included a 2-0 loss at bottom of table Grosseto last weekend. From the end of September to the end of the year Modena went on a great run at home where they went 9 games without losing, winning 6 of those games. However, since the new year they are yet to win a home game, drawing 3 and losing 2;

- Modena will be without Captain and regular defender Armando Perna (30 apps) along with usual defensive partner Zoboli (26 apps, 1 goal). Midfielder Dalla Bona (14 apps), and striker Lazarevic (25 apps, 5 goals) are also unavailable;

- Empoli also have some issues defensively as experienced centre-back Pratali (19 apps, 2 goals) is still injured, and Hysaj (21 apps) is away with Albania Under 21 National team. However, they have Pietro Accardi who can come in and do a good job as he is an experienced player who has been a regular in Serie A before with Sampdoria;

- Empoli have arguably the best strike-force in the league with experienced strikers Maccarone (28 apps, 11 goals) and Tavano (25 apps, 15 goals) supported by talented Italy Under 21 International Saponara (26 apps, 9 goals). Few teams have a trio like that to choose from in this league, and as long as they are in sync Empoli can beat anybody in Serie B.

As long as the Empoli defense can contain top-scorer Matteo Ardemagni (29 apps, 17 goals) then they have a great chance of getting three points out of this and basically securing a play-off spot. Modena's recent poor run of games has coincided with Ardemagni only scoring 1 goal in his last 4 appearances, while his strike partner tonight Stanco has only scored 1 goal his last 20 appearances (albeit a lot of those were short substitute appearances). Modena have only beaten 1 top 6 side this season which was Livorno, and I dont expect that to change tonight.

The late money has come in on Empoli which bodes well....Empoli PK is now -138 unlike the -111 that I got it at a couple hours ago.

[Simen236]

Let's see how this one turns out. C'mon Empoli

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Heavy rain has postponed the Mansfield match.

[Simen236]

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo ooal!

[Vaughany]

Goooooooooooooooooooal Massimo Maccarone! Empoli dominating from the start...superb finish at tight angle

[hundo]

Yeahhhhhhh