Vaughany's Soccer Plays...

[Vaughany]

Inter/Tottenham Under 3 goals @ -197...

Spurs without Gareth Bale (25 apps, 16 goals in Premier League, 7 apps, 3 goals in Europa League) so straight away the chance of Spurs scoring goals on the counter is reduced significantly. Inter have a lot of players out including Milito. All of Tottenham's away games so far in this competition have been Under 2.5 and were all draws, including a 0-0 at Lazio. They will be more than happy to have a similar result tonight and I think that is what they'll play for - a 0-0 or 1-1 type game. Tempted to go reasonably big on this but obviously Inter need to score goals as they are 3-0 down so you can't rule out the possibility that they take lots of chances which opens the game up, so with this in mind I'm keeping the play small stake.

[Vaughany]

Parlay (treble): Rubin/Levante Under 3.5 Goals (-450), Tigre PK (-275), & NAC Breda PK (-450).

[Vaughany]

NAC Breda -0.75 A.H. @ -115 at home to Willem II...

[Vaughany]

FC Twente PK @ -173 away at Groningen...

[hundo]

Hey Vaughny, signed up to thank you for your picks but it won't let me send a PM without first acquiring 20 posts.

Just wondering what books you use, I know pinny for sure, but where did you find that NAC Breda line?

[Vaughany]

Hey Vaughny, signed up to thank you for your picks but it won't let me send a PM without first acquiring 20 posts.

Just wondering what books you use, I know pinny for sure, but where did you find that NAC Breda line?

No worries

Mainly use Paddypower and skybet for parlays. Pinnacle for non-parlays. The NAC -0.75 was on Pinnacle (but it's stated as "-0.5 and -1 at -120").

Will give my reasoning for these plays later

[Vaughany]

Dortmund -1 A.H. @ -160 at home to Freiburg...

[hundo]

No worries

Mainly use Paddypower and skybet for parlays. Pinnacle for non-parlays. The NAC -0.75 was on Pinnacle (but it's stated as "-0.5 and -1 at -120").

Will give my reasoning for these plays later

Ah damn man, now I feel stupid for not seeing it like that, haha, -0.75 makes sense now!

Just using Pinnacle right now as their lines seem to be close to what you're getting. I notice that they really only have props for the big games though...

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

How do you like Levante today?

Heya Vaughany,

How do you like Levante +0.5 today?

BTW keep posting I am reading everyday and learning more!!

[Vaughany]

Heya Vaughany,

How do you like Levante +0.5 today?

BTW keep posting I am reading everyday and learning more!!

Tough game to cap, Rubin are without two key defenders in Ansaldi and Cesar Navas. While LEvante only have two strikers as Martins is leaving for Seattle and Midfielder Michel is out. Levante might be able to scrape a draw, but the Spaniards arent going to like the weather too much in Moscow!
I think the under might be best play but Im just putting UNder 3.5 in a parlay (posted above)

[bolek]

1-1 levante draw

[Vaughany]

1-1 levante draw

yeah, Im expecting some low scoring draws as well. I think Bordeax/Benfica has decent chance of being 1-1 type game, same with Fenerbahce and Lazio games. Tempted to play the draw on each of those

[bolek]

Ya same I see all games drawing except zenith ml and perhaps stea for the upset.

Gl

[Vaughany]

Siena/Cagliari Over 2 Goals @ -143...

[Vaughany]

FC Twente PK @ -173 away at Groningen...

Also added Under 3 goals @ -185...

At first glance the play on Twente PK seems a little risky as Twente are one of the most out-of-form teams in the league with 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 games (no victories so far this year). Groningen on the other hand have improved recently and have won 2 and drawn 1 of their last 3 home games, however, those two wins were against mediocre opposition in RKC and Zwolle (two relegation candidates). Groningen have won 4 games at home this season, and all 4 have come against teams from the bottom half of table in Heracles, Roda, and aforementioned RJC and Zwolle. Groningen's main issue has been their weak attack. Their top scorer this season is a midfielder de Leeuw with 8 goals, followed by striker Zeefuik's 3 goals. Only bottom of table Willem II and fourth from bottom Zwolle have scored fewer goals than Groningen. Recently, scoring goals has also been an issue for Twente. Since the continuation of the league in January after the winter break, Twente have only scored 5 goals in 8 games which is very unlike them and the main reason why they haven't been able to win a game yet. To put that in to perspective, Twente were able to score 6 goals in just their last 2 games before the winter break when they beat Hercules 3-2 at home then beat AZ 3-0 away! Aside from the fact that Twente dont have a prolific goal-scoring striker like they have in the past with Janko in 2010/11 season, or De Jong last season, I believe this dip in attacking quality has coincided with Nacer Chadli being out injured for past couple months. Chadli is back in training and should feature this wknd although it's unlikely he'll start the game. There is a lot of reliance on top scorer Dusan Tadic (26 apps, 11 goals, 11 assists) to create chances and score goals for Twente, and Groningen will be paying particularly attention to him as he is a former player of theirs and where he made his name before joining Twente.

Some other things to consider:

- Twente beat Groningen 4-1 in the reverse fixture back in August 2012. Twente also won 4-1 in January earlier on that year;

- Twente have won 1, drawn 2 in last 3 visits to Groningen;

- Only 2 out of a total 16 games between these two at Groningen's ground have gone over 3 goals since 1993 (16 games);

- Groningen have midfielder Rasmus Lindgren suspended, but Twente also have a defensive mid suspended in Wout Brama;

- Only RKC matches average fewer goals per game (2.35) in the league compared to Groningen and Twente who each average 2.5 goals per game;

- Twente have only lost 3 games on their travels, and have conceded the fewest goals away from home with just 12, 4 less than the next best away defence of Vitesse. Two of those away losses were against the two top teams in the Eredivisie in Ajax and PSV, while the third loss was their most recent away game to Heerenveen (most in-form team in the league outside of the big three of Ajax, PSV, and Feyenoord) where Twente had 59% possession but just couldnt convert their chances again;

- Twente were very unlucky to not get at least a point out of their last game against Vitesse. The ref didn't give a blatant penalty, and they missed a lot of great chances (10 shots on target compared to Vitesse's 5, 5 shots wide compared to Vitesse's 1).


I think it's only a matter of time before Twente start finding the net again and their bad run has to come to an end sooner or later! IMO Groningen with their average attack aren't the type of team that are going to make Twente pay for not converting their chances like other teams have done who have good attacking options (Ajax, Vitesse, and Heerenveen).

[Shredder]

Like the Twente pick. They played pretty good football against Vitesse and should have won that game. Goals can be a problem but I see them getting out of their slump against a very very weak Groningen.

[Vaughany]

Southampton/Liverpool Over 2.75 Goals @ -108...

In the past Liverpool have struggled away at Southampton and the games have usually been tight and low-scoring with last 4 games between these two being under 2.5 and Liverpool have lost last two at St Mary's 2-0 each time. However, these two games were back in 2005 and 2004, and this year these two have been an Over bettor's dream! Games involving Liverpool average 3.17 goals per game (second highest in league after Man Utd), while Southampton matches average 3.10 (joint 5th highest in league with Newcastle). Every game Liverpool have had away from home in 2013 has seen at least 3 goals, and their last 8 away games has had at least 3 goals. Suarez is in red-hot form having scored 7 goals in last 4 games in League and Europa and is top scorer in the league and Gerrard and Sturridge are also looking very dangerous at moment.

[Vaughany]

Playin Zenit to Qualify @ -170...(live-bet)...

Basel down to 10 men and Zenit were all over them anyway. Zenit should add at least one more goal and get it to extra-time.

Betway have it at +130 currently for anybody that has an account there. Unfortunately it seems I've been limited to a £2 bet on there

[Vaughany]

Saarbrucken +0.25 A.H. @ -112 away at Unterhaching...

[Vaughany]

Danny hits it over from 2 yards out Sooo shiit

[Vaughany]

and they hit the post

no luck

[Vaughany]

haha and they miss a penalty,...jessus christ why isnt Hulk taking penalties!

[Vaughany]

cant even score against 10 men Basel...embarrassing

[Vaughany]

Zenit are an absolute joke team

[Vaughany]

Playing Inter PK @ -132 live

[Vaughany]

Palacio puts Inter 2-0 up. Need it to stay like this for next 50 mins now!

[Vaughany]

Great play by Cambiasso to win ball back then play perfect through ball

[onemoregoal]

did u place the betway bet? £2... just wanna know how they settled it -

[Vaughany]

Vintage performance from Cambiasso...every pass perfect, tackling perfect

[Vaughany]

did u place the betway bet? £2... just wanna know how they settled it -

Oh yeah I'd forgot about tht £2! Theyve settled it as a loss by looks of it. No doubt it would of been voided if Zenit had of gone through!

Annoying because I've only just been limited after winning £150 off the Bayern DNB in first leg at Arsenal. Since tht can only bet a few pounds...shame cos tht Zenit/Basel to qualify would of been a nice arb opportunity

[PuckIt]

Think Chelsea rolls today?

[onemoregoal]

Oh yeah I'd forgot about tht £2! Theyve settled it as a loss by looks of it. No doubt it would of been voided if Zenit had of gone through!

Annoying because I've only just been limited after winning £150 off the Bayern DNB in first leg at Arsenal. Since tht can only bet a few pounds...shame cos tht Zenit/Basel to qualify would of been a nice arb opportunity

Yeah I was just wondering if they voided it or not..... They are really bad with odds so you can arb, but ive never risked it as they seem a bit dodgy..

[Vaughany]

Inter/Tottenham Under 3 goals @ -197...

Spurs without Gareth Bale (25 apps, 16 goals in Premier League, 7 apps, 3 goals in Europa League) so straight away the chance of Spurs scoring goals on the counter is reduced significantly. Inter have a lot of players out including Milito. All of Tottenham's away games so far in this competition have been Under 2.5 and were all draws, including a 0-0 at Lazio. They will be more than happy to have a similar result tonight and I think that is what they'll play for - a 0-0 or 1-1 type game. Tempted to go reasonably big on this but obviously Inter need to score goals as they are 3-0 down so you can't rule out the possibility that they take lots of chances which opens the game up, so with this in mind I'm keeping the play small stake.

Playing Inter PK @ -132 live

Playin Zenit to Qualify @ -170...(live-bet)...

Basel down to 10 men and Zenit were all over them anyway. Zenit should add at least one more goal and get it to extra-time.

Betway have it at +130 currently for anybody that has an account there. Unfortunately it seems I've been limited to a £2 bet on there

1 winner, 1 push, 1 loss.

Parlay (treble): Rubin/Levante Under 3.5 Goals (-450), Tigre PK (-275), & NAC Breda PK (-450).

Rubin/Levante Under hits easily so parlay still alive.

[Vaughany]

Small play on Newcastle to Qualify @ -182 live...

[Dayman]

Small play on Newcastle to Qualify @ -182 live...

Nice hit. Took them live to win in 90, got lucky there but they all count.