Suicide Betting 9/17-18

[Radio Bemba]

what's up people, been a small-time grinder for a long time, never started with BR of at least 500+ except twice. always built my way up. i've tried 200+ bets just 3 times, of i'm 1-2 (2 a few years ago, 1 on a brazilian over that ended 0-0, 1 a live-in play in football 4th quarter garbage time which was about -400, and 1 on arsenal-liverpool with arsenal pk, we know how that turned out). finally decided to come back for a while, and instead of slowly building my way up this time i'm going to try an all or nothing "smash and grab" this weekend. i've already been looking around to see what i'm going to play this weekend and i've come up with a preliminary list.

starting BR is of $600. thinking about starting with 2 plays saturday morning. too chicken to go all-in at the start, but then again the only worse thing than losing an all-in is going 0-2 all-in. so it's either 2 plays, 3, or 4 to begin with.

so far epl/bundesliga i'm thinking about:

bolton win
leverkusen win
nurnberg/bremen over 2.5, 3
hoffenheim/wolfsburg over 2.5, 3

• i'm confident about bolton handling business even though norwich is a defensively solid team. bolton has had false results playing against such tough opponents at the start.
• leverkusen playing hapless koln looks obvious enough, but this line is already at around -230, i wouldn't be sure how to incorporate this play into anywhere
• 5 games in both nurnberg/bremen stand at 3 unders 2 overs. but you see the games: nurnberg shocking hertha first day, at dortmund and at home to very closed off augsburg. bremen 2 2-0's at home and a 0-1 away to leverkusen. i dont expect this game to be one sided at all. somehow in bundesliga evenly matched doesnt mean 0-0, it means 2-1/2-2.
• same thing goes for wolfsburg and hoffenheim. 3 unders 2 overs each. the teams anchor their defense away from home and against tough elite opponents (bayern/dortmund/leverkusen) and are happy to fight it out with the lesser elites.

so i dont know how i'm going to be playing these four leans, i bet the 2 i choose end up going 0-2 and the others go 2-0, its just how it is! so i'll end up going with my gut, and i prefer playing overs than a straight win. maybe play all of them, parlay leverkusen/bolton and the other two straight.

then if things go right:

vvv/heerenveen over 3 (very juiced, will probably go to 3, 3.5)
vitesse roda over 3
lille/sochaux over 2.5

after that it's brazil:

sao paulo win
vasco win

so yeah. time to put things in motion, will update tomorrow.

just a stupid experiment, but a serious experiment.

[TomJSports]

I like the Bolton play.

I like Leverkusen, especially at home, against Köln. Chelsea played bad, but Bayer played even worse, which would be my big hesitation. Köln also showed against Hamburg that it does have offense, but Leno has been damn good for Bayer. Again, I have my reservations, but I would be reasonably willing to take the -1 on Bayer. I see it as a potential 3-1 win.

Nürnberg is a pretty tight ship and it will depend on if Werder Bremen can dictate play. Nürnberg is content to play low scoring and Bremen likes to score. Bremen doesn't have the tightest defense, so I could see this being a 2-2 like you said, but I could also see this being 0-0. All of that said, it's certainly a reasonable play. If I had to pick a play right now in this match, I'd likely go Werder PK.

Wolves and Hoffenheim over? I love it. Not much to say. Like you said, these mid-tier squads get together and you see 2-1 at the least, more like 3-1, 3-2, 4-1, 4-3, etc.


Another play is with how awful Hamburg is this year, I would like the over in that one against Gladbach. Best of luck on your plays!

[samitarian]

smash and grab huh? good luck.

How much are you gonna put down for your first 2 bets?

[Radio Bemba]

thanks a lot for the feedback. don't want to rely on any -1 or pk for straight wins, i have more faith in overs than an away win (or any toss-up match) in bundesliga.

added 1 play for today, half action half i love it, which is vila nova bragatino over 2.5 for 100.

i've confirmed 200 for bolton/leverkusen parlay, 200 for hoffenheim/wolfsburg over 2.5, 3, and 100 for nurnberg/bremen over 2.5,3 with an additional 100 on it if the brazil play wins.

decided to chicken out and do three plays instead of one or two.

[Radio Bemba]

winner on that one, a bit lucky after bragantino had to go down to ten men and the 3rd was scored on a pen in the 86th

im taking all winnings on this play and putting it on portland/new england over 2, 2.5, it's like ever since new england lost hope of the playoffs they've been playing with a fire very unlike the revolution of recent years. open games, many goals. both teams have the potential for a nailed-on 0-0 but going by recent form i think it could be a very open and entertaining (aka goalfest) game

[TomJSports]

Won't play the o/u in the Nürnberg match, but I'll be rooting for you. May still do Werder, but you're 100% correct on away teams in Bundesliga play. Good luck, good start!

[Radio Bemba]

Won't play the o/u in the Nürnberg match, but I'll be rooting for you. May still do Werder, but you're 100% correct on away teams in Bundesliga play. Good luck, good start!

thank you for the kind words sir

200 for bolton/leverkusen parlay, 200 for hoffenheim/wolfsburg over 2.5, 3, 200 for nurnberg/bremen over 2.5,3, 200 for leeds/bristol over 2.5

added one play with the winnings from yesterday, we'll see how it goes

[Radio Bemba]

adding leeds/bristol saved yesterday's profits. was a 400 dollar swing on one lucky that i luckily got by leeds. 2-2 on the plays today, 2-0 yesterday. up around 135.

2nd part of the plan is up

heerenveen/vvv over 3, 3.5 and will edit with roda over if that becomes available.

[Radio Bemba]

adding 2 french plays at 200 each, seems books have put up o/u as 2 across the board, and i see these two as most likely to reach 2 goals (coincidentally these are the two must juiced towards the over)

auxerre/caen over 2
lorient/st etienne over 2

[Radio Bemba]

pretty stupid update

played and won 50% til i went all in, got three big wins going all in once, winnings of the all in after that for the 2nd bet, then half of that for the 3rd bet. so very successful, even got a withdrawal in but i ended up losing about 800 on a misguided big play (sounders) and a bad run of 0-7 after that.

experiment over, i ended up about 100 dollars up in all and made 200% at the highest point (at around 2000), highest at end of a day was around 1500, then withdrew and lost the rest ~800 and it was fun while it lasted i guess

MONEY MANAGEMENT failure, after a good beginning. encouraging to be honest, for my biggest plays i was something like 3-1. it's the small action bets, and going overboard at key moments that ended the experiment.

[beeps220]

pretty stupid update

played and won 50% til i went all in, got three big wins going all in once, winnings of the all in after that for the 2nd bet, then half of that for the 3rd bet. so very successful, even got a withdrawal in but i ended up losing about 800 on a misguided big play (sounders) and a bad run of 0-7 after that.

experiment over, i ended up about 100 dollars up in all and made 200% at the highest point (at around 2000), highest at end of a day was around 1500, then withdrew and lost the rest ~800 and it was fun while it lasted i guess

MONEY MANAGEMENT failure, after a good beginning. encouraging to be honest, for my biggest plays i was something like 3-1. it's the small action bets, and going overboard at key moments that ended the experiment.

I would say that's my crack cocaine, sometimes playing those small plays add up, like just to bet something on tv I've been much better eliminating those lately and has helped a ton.