Foot off the Gas theory..

[beefcake]

Anyone else ever notice in Champions League or Europa League qualies when a team has a insurmountable goal difference and the team that got their ass kicked comes home the away team tends to take their foot off the gas and more or less doesnt give a shit if the home team wins by a small margin. Reason I'm saying this is we have 2 games today that would fit this mold.

Breidablik down 0-5 to Rosenborg..+720 to win..

Borac Banja Luka down 5-1 to Maccabi Haifa +650..

You would think that the home team has a lot of pride and wants to go out on a good note for the fans and the away side would tend to play conservative and maybe not start a player ir 2 or take out the top guys say in the 60th or 70th min if the score was tied with no chance of losing the advantage.

[JT OZ]

Solid logic with the potential for a big payout, are you biting?

[RubberKettle]

Breidablikis a bad team and the 1st leg score could have easily been 8-0 if Rosenborg had their shooting boots on in the 1st half.....but if Rosenborg leave out players like Henriksen, Prica and Skjelbred it could be a draw or a narrow win.

[beefcake]

Thanks for the player names Kettle, I'll look at lineups and if they are not in I might play em ML small or +1

[RubberKettle]

Skjelbred has transferred to Hamburg HSV so don't look for him

EDIT: seems as if he will leave in January 2012 so hes eligible to play for Rosenborg till then.

[RubberKettle]

Its looking very good so far Beef

[awesomeness]

looking nice!!!!!!!!

[beefcake]

Dam you Dvalishvili!! I would do cartwheels to get 1 out of 2 here..

[beefcake]

YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pouroupoupou]

Great picks beefcake.

[RubberKettle]

Did you end up playing these on ML's?
Even +1 you did great

Very impressive

[The Special One]

fantastic work.

[theplagy]

cashed both !

[necro]

very nice picks beefcake, i've taken banjaluka live dnb +260 when the score was 2-2 )

[beefcake]

Played ML for .25 unit and Spreads for 1..

Thanks guys...

[beefcake]

I see a few today...

FK Sarajevo +324

Vaduz +267..

[cogiditopapa]

I see a few today...

FK Sarajevo +324

Vaduz +267..

GL, I am tailing you on both!

[beefcake]

Hold em off Vaduz!

[beefcake]

Looks like 1-1 today..I'll take it

[cogiditopapa]

Looks like 1-1 today..I'll take it

I applied your concept to the Hacken vrs Nacional Game and it was a win!

Thank you for your post great details !!!!

[beefcake]

I would prefer a 4 or 5 goal cushion for these games, but glad you hit with hacken!

[beefcake]

Well Malmo is down 4-1 and at home and is +250..I usually would prefer a 4 goal or more cushion, but might be worth a go..

[beefcake]

Looks like another winner!

[OneTipster]

Congrats!

[beefcake]

4-1 so far..Rabotnicki, maybe Dnipro,Panathinaikos,Alania on thursday..

[beeps220]

Love these plays beefcake! I missed this one but great hit.

[beeps220]

Love these plays beefcake! I missed this one but great hit.

[cogiditopapa]

Well Malmo is down 4-1 and at home and is +250..I usually would prefer a 4 goal or more cushion, but might be worth a go..

I hit the Malmo game DNB at 2.75, I use your theory here.
I have it now as a rule of thumb!

this info was golden!

[beefcake]

Sucks that The qualies are almost over..maybe this would work for AFC Qualies or CONCACAF???

[pavyracer]

It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.

[cogiditopapa]

Sucks that The qualies are almost over..maybe this would work for AFC Qualies or CONCACAF???

I will try it on concacaf.
Right now they are onthe group stage so we will have to wait until the next rounds.

[cogiditopapa]

It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.

Foot of the gas meaning the team that has an adventage doesn't need any more goals = They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg

Same thing, Cake just called it " foot of the gas".

[beefcake]

Yes, I have to admit my betting theories are whacked a bit, but that's the kind of bettor I am, sometimes they work and sometimes they fall flat..

[The Special One]

It's definitely not "foot of the gas". They are defending a previous result on the 1st leg.

yes it is... foot TOTALLY off the gas

[pavyracer]

So Arsenal is playing with the foot off the gas now because they have already won first game.