Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System

[Fede_Gu]

Hi all!

I wanna share with you my soccer picks, based on a really simple system.

I called it ALT Chasing System because it is an Away Losing Team (ALT) 4 game chase.


Rules are very simple:
- odds are quite ever + money so (A) bet will be 1 unit, (B) bet 2 units, (C) bet 4 units and (D) 8 units.
- Losses are quite ever about 15.00 units.
- It's and Asian Handicap based system.
- It's a 4 game chase, pushes are considered no plays.


Last year I've tried it for some leagues but after this I've remodeled the system so future +units could be more than I've earned.

For example, my results on 2010/2011 Italian Serie A are these:

Record: 16-4
Profit: +32.8 units


Basically I bet on ENG - SPA - ITA - BRA - GER but also on FRA, ARG and some other leagues (especially in summer).
I estimate something like 2/3 new plays a week and about +175 units per year, on average.

Money management is ever a personal choice but I recommend to play no more than 1% of your bankroll on a single bet, 0.5% if you have a larger BR.
Due to the low number of plays it's possible to use an aggressive strategy (like 1.5% of bankroll on every bet) but it could be dangerous.


Yess, it's not a full loaded system (2/3 plays a week are nothing) and +175 units a year are a small profit unless you bet 50+ €/$ on each play...

But I enjoy it and I want to share with SBR my little simple system.


A last word: profits are NEVER guaranteed, even if I didn't have a single losing year in my backtest, so you can follow, fade or simply skipping it watching me losing money but ever AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Bet smart!!! And good luck to all!!!


(Sorry for my english)

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALTChasing System


Plays for 06/17:

(C) Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (Ireland - Premier) - Galway United +2.5 [+139]


Upcoming Plays:

06/18 (B) Sligo Rovers vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier)
06/19 (B) GAIS vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska)



Notes: As you can see I start with (C) and (B) bet, as they are in the system, but I'll keep record of plays since today, because I don't want to claim unproven wins.

[killim]

Thanks for the winners, Fede (are you Italian?)

[Fede_Gu]

Yes Killim, 100%!

[Fede_Gu]

Italian Serie B 2010/2011:

Record: 19-0
Profit: +70.5 units

[sfi50]

wow that will be interesting all the money is on sham-2.5

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System


Series Record (since 06/17): 0-0
Profit (series completed): 0.00 units

Series Open: 1
Money on series open: -4.00 units


Breakdown:

A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-1
D: 0-0

Total: 0-1
Hit Rate: 0.00%



Plays for 06/17:

(C) Shamrock Rovers vs Galway United (Ireland - Premier) - Galway United +2.5 [+139] Loss


Next Series Play:

06/24 (D) Dundalk - Galway (Ireland, Premier)


Upcoming Plays:

06/18 (B) Sligo Rovers vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier)
06/19 (B) GAIS vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska)



Notes: Yes, not just the way I would like to start my thread but I know Galway series is hard. Hope system can cash on (D) bet next Friday but even with a loss I'll continue to post my plays.
Tomorrow another play in Ireland but this time some chances to cash on the (B) bet already, even if we could have a small +money.

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System


Series Record (since 06/17): 0-0
Profit (series completed): 0.00 units

Open Series: 1
Money on open series: -4.00 units


Breakdown:

A: 0-0
B: 0-0
C: 0-1
D: 0-0

Total: 0-1
Hit Rate: 0.00%



Plays for 06/18:

(B) Sligo Rovers vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - UC Dublin +1.75 [+106] 2 Units


Upcoming Plays:

06/19 (C) RoPS vs Vaasa (Finland, Veikkausliiga)
06/19 (B) GAIS vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska)
06/19 (B) Haugesund vs Start (Norway, Tippeligaen)
06/19 (A) Stabaek vs Viking (Norway, Tippeligaen)

[killim]

Thanks for the winners, Fede (are you Italian?)

[sfi50]

no guts no glory gl on uc dublin wil watch

[Fede_Gu]

Wow... UC dublin 0-4.

Another sad day but it was only (B) bet on Dublin, even if I thought it could be a win.
Tomorrow 4 new plays, with some juice (but some positive thinking) on the (C) bet and two huge (and hard) + money bet.

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System


Series Record (since 06/17): 0-0
Profit (series completed): 0.00 units

Open Series: 2
Money on open series: -6.00 units


Breakdown:

A: 0-0
B: 0-1
C: 0-1
D: 0-0

Total: 0-2
Hit Rate: 0.00%



Plays for 06/18:

(B) Sligo Rovers vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - UC Dublin +1.75 [+106] Loss


Next Series Play:

06/21 (C) Drogheda vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier)


Plays for 06/19:

(C) RoPS Rovaniemi vs Vaasa VPS (Finland, Veikkausliiga - 11.30am ET) - Vaasa VPS +0.5 [-218] risk to win 4.38 Units
(B) GAIS Goteborg vs AIK Solna (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - AIK Solna +0 [+117] bet 2.18 Units
(B) Haugesund vs Start IK (Norway, Tippeligaen - 10.00am ET) - Start IK +0 [+202] bet 2 Units
(A) Stabaek vs Viking (Norway, Tippeligaen - 12.00pm ET) - Viking +0.25 [+176] bet 1 Unit



Notes: As you've noticed I've added units on every play. It is just to be more clear but the rule is simply "double the units on + money bets" and "risk to win 1 units plus losses on the series on - money bets".
System pulled out three very interesting games, with nice + money and one with an orrible -218 on the (C) bet.
I'm a purist and I don't want to add my personal feelings to the system, also because I've already developed some filters on particular plays. It's a huge -money bet and I have to cover it. In this system sometimes happens.

[killim]

Good luck for today plays.

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System


Series Record (since 06/17): 2-0
Profit (series completed): +6.14 units

Open Series: 4
Money on open series: -10.18 units


Breakdown:

A: 1-0
B: 0-3
C: 1-1
D: 0-0

Total: 2-4
Hit Ratio: 33.33%



Plays for 06/19:

(C) RoPS Rovaniemi vs Vaasa VPS (Finland, Veikkausliiga - 11.30am ET) - Vaasa VPS +0.5 [-218] WIN
(B) GAIS Goteborg vs AIK Solna (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - AIK Solna +0 [+117] LOSS
(B) Haugesund vs Start IK (Norway, Tippeligaen - 10.00am ET) - Start IK +0 [+202] LOSS
(A) Stabaek vs Viking (Norway, Tippeligaen - 12.00pm ET) - Viking +0.25 [+176] WIN


Next Series Play:

06/26 (C) Trelleborgs vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska)
07/17 (C) Stromsgodset vs Start (Norway, Tippeligaen)



Notes: Pretty good sunday, especially for the (C) bet due to the huge amount of money on it. First wins are ever welcome.
Next week we'll have 13 series but only 3 of them are brand new (for the system, 10 for us). We'll have also the first (D) bet of the season.
By now we're below hit ratio average of past year and (B) bets seems not to hit like they usual do, but we're just at the beginning...

[Fede_Gu]

Fede_Gu 2011 ALT Chasing System


Series Record (since 06/17): 2-0
Profit (series completed): +6.14 units

Open Series: 4
Money on open series: -10.18 units


Breakdown:

A: 1-0
B: 0-3
C: 1-1
D: 0-0

Total: 2-4
Hit Ratio: 33.33%



Plays for 06/20:

NO PLAYS FOR TODAY


Upcoming Plays:

06/21 (C) Hacken vs Halmstads (Sweden, Allsvenska)
06/21 (C) Drogheda vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier)
06/22 (B) Vaasa vs Haka Valkeakoski (Finland, Veikkausliiga)
06/22 (C) Urawa vs. Avispa F (Japan, J. League)
06/22 (B) Hiroshima vs. Montedio Y (Japan, J. League)

[Fede_Gu]

Yesterday I've completed my ultimate set of filters in order to apply them to the system.

No current plays were affected by these filters except one, the UC Dublin series. So I had to face an hard question and finally I've took a decision.

I'm not a John Morrison type of guy and I'll not disqualified this series as unofficial if it won't wins to keep my record as strong as possible. My approach is different: (A) loss on this play actually was a push but we've placed 2 units on (B) bet (actually an (A) bet), so I've thought the less dangerous way to fix it is to change upcoming (C) bet in a (B) bet but unit size remains as they are.
Supposing upcoming plays are all on + money we'll have:
(B) bet [previously (C)]: 4.00 units
(C) bet [previously (D)]: 8.00 units
(D) bet [previously not predicted]: 16.00 units.

New set of filters is enough more profitable to apply it but I've made a mistake on starting a public thread before finishing it.
By now, till the end of the year (12/31/2011), no new filters will added even if I'll continue to work on improving play/side selection: if I'll have new versions of the system I'll change it only in 2012.

This post is to apologize to everyone is following (if any, but I doubt it) or simply watching this thread. I made a mistake, I'm trying to resolve it.

(D) bet will have an huge load of money, especially if it will have -money bet. An alternative idea could be to stay with former (A, B, C, D) order and to accept the (D) bet (actually (C) for new system version) as a loss, but new filters may change the side and I will play the series till the end and I'll record it as it will be.

Yes, could be a devastating loss (minimum 31 units, probably more) but hopefully we can cash before it.

So only for this series I'll provide both old (e.g. next play (C) bet) and new (next play (B) bet) system version plays.

I'm not touting and I don't like claiming winning records without proving it. I'm just a gambler and this is my simple little system.


Good day to all!

[killim]

Better no plays then loss!

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 2-0
Profit (no open series): +6.14 units

Open Series: 4
Pending money: -10.18 units


Breakdown:

A: 1-0
B: 0-3
C: 1-1
D: 0-0

Total: 2-4
Hit Ratio: 33.33%



Plays for 06/21:

(C) BK Hacken vs Halmstads BK (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - Halmstads BK +0.50 [+155] Bet 4.04 Units
(B) Drogheda United vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Drogheda United +0 [+120] Bet 4.00 Units
(A) Drogheda United vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Drogheda United +0 [+120] Bet 1.00 Unit
(A) Galway United vs St Patricks Athletics (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway +1.75 [+146] Bet 1.00 Unit
(A) Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk (Ireland, Premier - 3.00pm ET) - Dundalk +1 [+209] Bet 1.00 Unit



Notes: First day with the final set of filters and a brand new name for this system. Some thoughts about it. First, pay attention to unit size b/c in this system is usual to have an (A) and a (B), or (C) or (D) bet, on the same game; it's not unlikely also to have a different side or handicap selection on two different bets on the same match: that's because basically it's a combo of two profitable systems.
In order to be clear I've chosen blue color for system #1 plays and black for system #2 but I'll not keep two separate records.
Now I've rechecked my spreadsheet and I've estimated about 480 plays per year. It means no less than 9/10 new plays per week, on average. Losses are quite ever between 15.00 and 19.00 units (-17.50 on average).
The difficulty on chasing soccer is the time between the first match of the series and the last: it requires a lot of attention but I'm here to answer every question you'd like to tell me.

Today we've 5 plays and a total amount of 11.04 units pending on them. Good luck to everyone!

[killim]

best of luck today !!

[Fede_Gu]

Thanks killim!

Really a good day, with 3 wins (1 on heavy (B) bet and other on big + money) and a small (A) bet loss.
Halmstads series goes to (D) bet but no problem for now.

Tomorrow I'll update records and post the plays for the day.

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 5-0
Profit (no open series): +12.23 units

Open Series: 5
Pending money: -12.72 units


Breakdown:

A: 3-1
B: 1-3
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 5-6
Hit Ratio: 45.45%



Plays for 06/21:

(C) BK Hacken vs Halmstads BK (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - Halmstads BK +0.50 [+155] LOSS
(B) Drogheda United vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Drogheda United +0 [+120] WIN
(A) Drogheda United vs UC Dublin (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Drogheda United +0 [+120] WIN
(A) Galway United vs St Patricks Athletics (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway +1.75 [+146] LOSS (1/2)
(A) Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk (Ireland, Premier - 3.00pm ET) - Dundalk +1 [+209] WIN

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 5-0
Profit (no open series): +12.23 units

Open Series: 5
Pending money: -12.72 units


Breakdown:

A: 3-1
B: 1-3
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 5-6
Hit Ratio: 45.45%



Plays for 06/22:

(B) Vaasa VPS vs Haka (Finland, Veikkausliiga - 11.30am ET) - Vaasa VPS -0.5 [-102] Risk to Win 2.00 Units
(A) Tom Tomsk vs Rostov FK (Russia, Vysjaya Liga - 7.30am ET) - Rostov FK +0.25 [+164] Bet 1.00 Unit
(A) Amkar Perm vs Spartak Nalchik (Russia, Vyshaya Liga - 9.45am ET) - Amkar Perm -0.5 [-102] Risk to Win 1.00 Unit



Notes: Ok, after a good night today we've three more plays, one on (B) bet and two starting series. A 2-1 day would be good.
Sorry for the late russian play.

GL to all!

[killim]

NO sorry from you.
Thank you!

[Fede_Gu]

Small win on Rostov, now waiting for Perm - Nalchik start.

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-0
Profit (no open series): +14.05 units

Open Series: 6
Pending money: -14.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-1
B: 1-4
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 7-7
Hit Ratio: 50.00%



Plays for 06/22:

(B) Vaasa VPS vs Haka (Finland, Veikkausliiga - 11.30am ET) - Vaasa VPS -0.5 [-102] LOSS
(A) Tom Tomsk vs Rostov FK (Russia, Vysjaya Liga - 7.30am ET) - Rostov FK +0.25 [+164] WIN (1/2)
(A) Amkar Perm vs Spartak Nalchik (Russia, Vyshaya Liga - 9.45am ET) - Amkar Perm -0.5 [-102] WIN




Notes: Two more wins for the system but still slow on (B) bets. (C) bet on this series will be on 07/10.
Tomorrow just one play but we'll have 2/3 plays on average for the weekend (included (D) bet on Galway series).
Not a bad start but I think the system could perform better.

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-0
Profit (no open series): +14.05 units

Open Series: 6
Pending money: -14.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-1
B: 1-4
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 7-7
Hit Ratio: 50.00%



Plays for 06/23:

(A) Helsingborg vs Trelleborgs FF (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - Trelleborgs FF +1 [+123] Bet 1.00 Unit




Notes: Good morning to everyone! Today only one play but a little more action this weekend.

[killim]

With you on Trelleborgs.GL

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-0
Profit (no open series): +14.05 units

Open Series: 7
Pending money: -15.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-2
B: 1-4
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 7-8
Hit Ratio: 46.67%



Plays for 06/23:

(A) Helsingborg vs Trelleborgs FF (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - Trelleborgs FF +1 [+123] LOSS




Notes: Wow, 7-3 Helsingborg! Next series play will be on Sunday, 06/26. One more play added on a really full loaded day! Can't wait!
Tomorrow we'll have only one match for the system but 3 different plays on it: brand new (A) bet, a (B) bet from (A) of 06/21 and our first (D) bet... Yes, the game will be Dundalk - Galway!
We could have different sides on the same game so... hope (D) bet cash first!

[killim]

Good start for trelleborg (0-1, 2-2) but horrible finish!

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-0
Profit (no open series): +14.05 units

Open Series: 7
Pending money: -15.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-2
B: 1-4
C: 1-2
D: 0-0

Total: 7-8
Hit Ratio: 46.67%



Plays for 06/24:

(D) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] Bet 8.00 Unit
(B) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] Bet 2.00 Unit
(A) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] Bet 1.00 Unit




Notes: Yes, three plays on the same game. And also a (D) bet. Could be a devastating evening or a big one. Fingers crossed.

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-1
Profit (no open series): +2.05 units

Open Series: 7
Pending money: -14.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-3
B: 1-5
C: 1-2
D: 0-1

Total: 7-11
Hit Ratio: 63.63%



Plays for 06/24:

(D) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] LOSS
(B) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] LOSS
(A) Dundalk vs Galway United (Ireland, Premier - 2.45pm ET) - Galway United +2.25 [+113] LOSS




Notes: Ouch. One week of plays (and wins) eaten up by Galway 1-6 loss. Just for the record last year in Ireland I've not had a single loss in the system. Probably I've to add a filter about clubs in financial trouble.
But it's ok, system is still in positive, even if pending money is growing up. Plenty of action this weekend so no time for complaining.

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-1
Profit (no open series): +2.05 units

Open Series: 7
Pending money: -14.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-3
B: 1-5
C: 1-2
D: 0-1

Total: 7-11
Hit Ratio: 63.63%



Plays for 06/25:

(A) Goias vs Portuguesa Desportos (Brazil, Serie B - 3.20pm ET) - Goias -0.5 [+104]




Notes: Only one play but tomorrow is loaded. GL to all!

[killim]

Since positive, no problem!

[Fede_Gu]

2011 Soccer / Starting+ ɔCLT System


Series Record (since 06/17): 7-1
Profit (no open series): +2.05 units

Open Series: 8
Pending money: -15.76 units


Breakdown:

A: 5-4
B: 1-5
C: 1-2
D: 0-1

Total: 7-12
Hit Ratio: 36.84%



Plays for 06/25:

(A) Goias vs Portuguesa Desportos (Brazil, Serie B - 3.20pm ET) - Goias -0.5 [+104] LOSS



Plays for 06/26:

(C) Seattle Sounders FC vs New England Revolution (USA, MLS - 4.00pm ET) - New England Revolution +1 [+102] Bet 4.00 Units
(C) Trelleborgs vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - AIK -0.5 [+163] Bet 4.27 Units
(B) Sogndal vs Fredrikstad (Norway, Tippeligaen - 8.00am ET) - Fredrikstad +0 [+107] Bet 2.00 Units
(A) Krylya Sovetov Samara vs Spartak Nalchik (Russia, Premier League - 10.45am ET) - Krylya Samara Sovetov -0.25 [+100] Bet 1.00 Unit
(B) Trelleborgs vs AIK (Sweden, Allsvenska - 1.00pm ET) - Trelleborgs +0 [+103] Bet 2.00 Units
(A) Rubin Kazan vs Kuban Krasnodar (Russia, Premier League - 10.45pm ET) - Rubin Kazan -1.25 [+105] Bet 1.00 Unit
(A) Mjallby vs Orebro (Sweden, Allsvenska - 10.30am ET) - Mjallby +0 [+104] Risk to win 1.00 Unit

[killim]

Lot of bets. Good luck