The cake is a lie

[Karim]

Hi guys , my name is Karim, i´m 19 , i live in Austria.
Right at the moment i turned 18 i started betting and i just love it.. i have no problems thinking about games, and analyse for like 20 hours a day.
For the most parts im doing this blog to share my picks with you and maybe get new connections to insider from all over the world , because i think its very important to play together to beat the bookies. Also it´s a nice way to improve my english a bit since i will move to the US sooner or later.
I specialized myself on Soccer , mostly the small leagues all over the world.
on the Last 300 Picks i managed to hold a 115% Return of Investment which is very nice. My lifetime ROI should be somewhere between 106% and 107%. All in all im very confident right now that most of my Picks are plus EV.
I will try to always add some reasonings why i play a pick and i would ofcourse appreaciate it to get some other opinions.

My stakingplan is based on a 1/5 scale , where 1/5 means around 1% of my actuall roll. Maximum 5/5 is allowed which is very rare.. most Picks are around between 1-3/5. Only highconfidence Picks get to 4/5 .. don´t think i actually ever played a 5/5 pick.


lets get it on

[The Special One]

welcome, looking forward to your picks

btw, whats up with your title??

[Karim]

My first Pick is a game in France Ligue 1

AC Arles-Avignon – FC Sochaux

2 @ 1,95 confidence 2/5, takes place on Sunday, but odds sure will drop, so it´s a very early pick.

Ac Arles is right now last in the table,they will drop down to Ligue 2 next season. Supprisingly they won the last two games against Lens (19) and Toulouse (12), both teams were playing for nothing anymore.
So why did they suddenly get 6 Points out of 2 Matches while it took them 35 Games to gain 14 Points ?
--> It´s all about the money, their Manager would give Arles players 5000€ Each , if they reach 20 Points. So now they have the 20 Points and the motivation should be gone again.

Sochaux is at place 6 and surely playing Europe League. With a wn they could get to place 5 , if Rennes dont win against the new Champion Lille , not that easy, probably not even doable.. so Sochaux in desperate need to win , >because< - then they will have to jump in 1 Europe League Qualification Round later AND they get 1,2 Mio € more money for the club.
Sochaux based on skill also much better !
Clubs are very friendly , not meaning Arles will lose for free though

GL all !

[The Special One]

good info, well see..

[GMilst]

welcome, looking forward to your picks

btw, whats up with your title??

Old internet meme. Just google it

[The Special One]

Old internet meme. Just google it

ok thanks...

[Blue_Chips]

Hi guys , my name is Karim, i´m 19 , i live in Austria.
Right at the moment i turned 18 i started betting and i just love it.. i have no problems thinking about games, and analyse for like 20 hours a day.
For the most parts im doing this blog to share my picks with you and maybe get new connections to insider from all over the world , because i think its very important to play together to beat the bookies. Also it´s a nice way to improve my english a bit since i will move to the US sooner or later.
I specialized myself on Soccer , mostly the small leagues all over the world.
on the Last 300 Picks i managed to hold a 115% Return of Investment which is very nice. My lifetime ROI should be somewhere between 106% and 107%. All in all im very confident right now that most of my Picks are plus EV.
I will try to always add some reasonings why i play a pick and i would ofcourse appreaciate it to get some other opinions.

My stakingplan is based on a 1/5 scale , where 1/5 means around 1% of my actuall roll. Maximum 5/5 is allowed which is very rare.. most Picks are around between 1-3/5. Only highconfidence Picks get to 4/5 .. don´t think i actually ever played a 5/5 pick.


lets get it on

Hello,

So, you live in Austria, but will you be posting plays from Austria? I definitely need help there as I like to play the totals in both leagues, 1 and 2.

[Karim]

Yes , i will surely try to give interesting infos from the austrian league , sadly the saison finished yesterday.

[bigcici]

gl I'll follow u

[bostonbruins]

The cake is a lie

not an optimistic title, GL though

[Karim]

Hey guys, really hard to find good bets at the moment.. but i think i got one !

Today its the Woman Championsleaguefinal between
Olympique Lyon – FFC Turbine Potsdam

under 2,5 @ 1,85 confidence 1.5/5

this is the same final as last year. it ended 0:0 there and got won in the penalties.
Potsdam won the title last year.. today Lyon will try to give revenge

Sadly for Lyon one of their top scorer (Nagasato) will probably miss and if shes playing she wont be any fit.
Both teams should be around equal with very good defenses. I see Potsam winning this 0:1 or something.

Like most very important games/finals i think this won will end under a very high % of the time.. only small stakes, because comeon , its still women soccer

[Karim]

Olympique Lyon – FFC Turbine Potsdam

under 2,5 @ 1,85 confidence 1.5/5

Always a good sign to win the first Pick of a Blog i guess
Final Score was suprisingly 2:0 for Lyon.
Goals in 27. and 85. minute.. late goal made my heart pump a little moar

[theplagy]

this is like the first analysis on women soccer i've ever seen lol

GJ

[Blue_Chips]

Good job on your first play. Hopefully, you will have a total for the men tomorrow.

[Karim]

Good job on your first play. Hopefully, you will have a total for the men tomorrow.

i think thats very hard to predict.. the odds on the under are pretty low.. i was thinking to play the over @ around 2,35 .. but pretty much every final ends in an under in the end.. allthough both teams should be able to get great scoring abilities.. both teams have the best offense right now, but the defense can break under pressure. I think both teams didn´t really get tested very well in the previous games..
Manchester with Marseille , Chelsea in bad form and Schalke 04 no real oppenents, while Barca had to play against Arsenal , Shaktar and Real Madrid.. Arsenal was in bad shape either.. and Real Madrid, well the match was a good Test,but in the End Real Madrid did really all to lose the game.
I personally see a 1:1 and overtime at the moment.. but on friday night/saturday i will put all my focus on this game and hopefully get a good bet going.
Yellow cards.. that could be a interesting bet , allthough i think that the bookies will be prepared. Viktor Kassai who is most likely going to lead the game gave in last three Championsleague matches a total of 18 Yellow Cards, no Red.

[Karim]

France third League (Nacional)

Amiens SC – SC Bastia over 2,5 @ 2,2 bet365 confidence 1,5/5



just some words , since i need sleep , 6 in the morning here

both teams will go up in ligue two for sure.. both teams play for nothing .. both teams got excellent attacking power with amiens having scored 57 goals and Bastia having scored 81 goals .. last head to heads were more under games , but thats because there they were actually under pressure trying all to not recive goals and obviolusly win.
i´m pretty sure this over has exactly 50% , so everything above @ 2 is good value.

[Automat]

Dun u have school or something?? lol just kidding..
good luck : )

[Karim]

France third League (Nacional)

Amiens SC – SC Bastia over 2,5 @ 2,2 bet365 confidence 1,5/5

only 1:0

[Karim]

Alright, i found a pretty nice Match. It occurs in Bolivia and is a great Derby.

Nacional Potosi – Real Potosi 2 @ 2,25 Sportingbet other books also good odds 2.25/5

HANDICAP Real Potosi -1 @ 4,5 0,5/5 sportingbet

This is the final Round in Apertura. 4 Teams are still fighting for the first Place, with Real Potosi leading them All.. so all they have to do is Win the game with ~2-3 goals difference, sounds easy huh? Why 2-3 goals difference ? Bolivar has same points, they are -3 in goals and play at home against worst team of the ligue .. 4:0 or 5:0 very possible (this will lead me to my other pick
Nacional Potosi is playing for nothing anymore. Of Course.. since it´s a Derby they will play for pride.. Those teams play in same Stadium so homeadvantage not really given !

03/04/11 Real Potosí 3 - 0 Nacional Potosí
23/08/09 Real Potosí 4 - 1 Nacional Potosí
02/08/09 Nacional Potosí 0 - 2 Real Potosí

[Karim]

Bolivar – La Paz

1 Handicap -1 @ 2,1 bwin 1.5/5

Bolivar needs to win , 5:0 to 6:0 preferably. They have shown in the last maches they can win against a little better teams than La Paz at home with 3:0 and 4:0. I´m expecting an goal festival from them as they will desperatly try to outscore the -3 goal difference they have compared to Real Potosi.

La Paz already for sure last place. No motivation. lost last 3 games with goal difference 2:10.

i expect at least a 3:1

[Karim]

Two little overs for today

CSKA Sofia - Academic Sofia over 2,5 @ 1,85 1/5

Cska plays for nothing anymore. They are 3rd for sure. Academic Sofia has only very little chances to avoid dropping out of the league.
Cska will play with some young talented players, they wanna prove what they can and especially the strikers will try to score goals and i might see the defense making some mistakes, even against lowscoring team academica.

Sparta Praha - Hradec Kralove over 2 @ 1,85 2/5

here we have two teams playing for nothing anymore. Sparta finishing place 2 for sure and today they can give the fans a nice goalfest.

[Karim]

Botafogo - Santos 1 @ 1,9 bet365 2/5

Santos will play rest some players because their main focus is the Copa and since they had trouble winning against Cerro (only 1:0) , they will have to give all against Cerro next week.

Botafogo played a boring game last time against Palmeiras. They had only very few scoring chances.
Today they will play more offensive again. Botafogo just bought a new player, Elkesson , who will play today in attack.
As said, Santos shortly before the Copa final , but they still got much work to do .. so this game is of no real interest for santos.

[Karim]

Two little overs for today

CSKA Sofia - Academic Sofia over 2,5 @ 1,85 1/5

1:0 37.
1:1 41.
2:1 71. -> Win

Sparta Praha - Hradec Kralove over 2 @ 1,85 2/5

1:0 5.
2:0 38.
2:1 79. -> Win

oh made a little mistake , Sparta Praha - Hradec Kralove is ofcourse also over 2,5*

[Karim]

Mexico - Ecuador 1 @ 1,8 2/5 Sportingbet/188bet/pinnacles, odds dropping

Mexico will play with most players. Hernandez , who will try to beat the hell out of Barca´s Defense will mis of course.
New good Goalkeeper aswell

Rodriguez from PSV Eindhoven will play, Moreo from Alkmaar, Guardado from La Coruna , Barrera from West Ham.
Valencia wont play for Ecuador... who will try to beat the hell out of Barcelona too.
some people will miss cause of injury for Ecuador
But rest will be playing (Caicedo, Ayovi , Benitez.. )
Last game won Ecuador in a friendly 2:1

but today the Mexicans shold win . They take it very serious in preparation for the Gold Cup .

The game takes place in the US in Seattle.. shouldbe advantage for Mexico .

[Karim]

Mexico - Ecuador 1 @ 1,8 2/5 pinnacles

1:0 7.
1:1 37.
Only a friendly 1:1

[Karim]

Botafogo - Santos 1 @ 1,9 bet365 2/5

1:0 39.
--> Win.

[Karim]

Dänmark Division 1
HB Köge – Aarhus GF over 2,5 @ 1,625 bet365 2,5/5



usually not a fan of such low quotes, but i gotta take this one !

1st and 2nd will meet in the last round of the season. Both teams will go up to Superligaen next season. Both can play very relxed and proud, since they will play with the best of the best in Dänmark next year.
As i read on a Danish paper, there will be free entry , what means many many people will come that obvious wanna see a lot of goals and a good game. I also checked the weather for tomorrow (Köge is in South of Copenhagen) and it will be ok, not to cold, windy and only very unlikely rain expected. Both teams score the most goals of the league. They won´t be focused on defense as hard as usually. Last game ended 3:2
i see an clear over here ! Would be really suprised if it ended with 0-2 goals.
good luck !

[innn]

pardon me but you talking shit "both without motivation" ?! wow , "to reach 20 points" and then stop
I gotta think to myself why wouldn't arles' boss not pay them also for 23 points won , more why wouldn't arles players win the last 3 (also free ) points left ,even without being paid , case in which they go in ligue 2 having only 2 points deficit instead of 5 they would have if you win your bet. Good Luck

[Karim]

Dänmark Division 1
HB Köge – Aarhus GF over 2,5 @ 1,625 bet365 2,5/5

Game ends 4:2 ! Pick was won after 20 Minutes, great

[Karim]

Germany - Uruguay over 3 @ 2,08 188bet 1.5/5

friendly between those teams, who met in the Worlcup in game for place 3, which ended 3:2

Germany will play with many new young players to test around a little bit..
Players from Worldcup who might play are: Neuer, Lahm , Özil, Podolski, Gomes, .. the rest , especially defense will be full of new young players like Schmelzer, Hummels Schürrle, Friedrich .. so i expect especially in the defense some mistakes. On the bench klose, müller, badstuber, götze will take place.

For Uruguay many from the Worldcup will , play , especially in the attack with Forlan , Surez, Cavani , 3 well known players from Alteltico , Liverpool and Neapel. Uruguay is also known for making mistakes in the defense. Also Muslera, Maxi Pereira, Lugano , Perez, will probabl play.

So we have two great offensive teams , with weak defense meeting each other in a unimportant friendly in Germany. I expect many Goals, at least 3. Just small stakes because it´s still a friendly.

[Karim]

Germany - Uruguay over 3 @ 2,08 188bet 1.5/5

.

only 2:1, after the 2:1 in the 47. there were plenty of chances.. but Gomez especially managed to not score a 100% goal. Very unfortunate
at least Cashback !

[Karim]

My first Pick is a game in France Ligue 1

AC Arles-Avignon – FC Sochaux 2 @ 1,95 confidence 2/5

Sochaux winning 3:1, while Rennes lost 3:2 aganst Lille, which meas Sochaux passed Rennes and finishes season in Place 5 now, will be getting 1,2 Million more €uros and they got a new fan.

[Karim]

Nacional Potosi – Real Potosi 2 @ 2,25 Sportingbet 2.25/5
Real Potosi -1 @ 4,5 0,5/5 sportingbet

Bolivar – La Paz 1 -1 @ 2,1 bwin 1.5/5

Real Potosi plays 0:0, odds dropped from 2,3 on 1,7 on this -.-

Bolivar was such a bullshit game ,in first half they miss a penalty, then la paz gets red, then la paz takes the lead (odds around 21 for this), then they turn aroun the game, final score is 2:1 and they are the champions

what a bad day in Bolivia.

[Karim]

6-4-1 so far, could have been better, but i´m fine with that!


Since i was really owning the worldcup in 2010 , i will try to get some good Euroleague Qualification and Copa America bets going, as i think i have a lot of knowledge considering the inernational games from all over the world, as this are the games , which im following since 1998 when i was a 7 year old boy that just fell in love with all those exotic teams playing against each other


at first look i like the over in belgium against turkey which is to have at around 1,95
i have seen both belgium and turkey play, as they played both against austria , which i , as an austrian of course followed. they boh play pretty agressive football, with alot of mistakes in their defense.

belgium - austria ended 4:4 for example, while austria is probably one of the worst teams considering the attack power.
also the first game in turkey ended 3:2
and its an very crucial game for them both , meaning if one team falls behind 1:0 , they gotta risk a lot to fight back and not lose. but just a first thought.

some more, detailed analysises coming from monday to friday !

[MartR]

Karim, you like to bet more in the offseason? Some people make a lot of money during this time..