2-2-11 English Premier

[Regul8er]

OK Guys, you probably saw me crying and complaining in here yesterday after two harsh beats.
I dont bet soccer much, and am FAR from an expert.

With that said, I usually only plays totals, and usually get destroyed (2-12 dating back to October). I usually do research on how teams perform at home or on the road.

Here would be my thought process on 2 games:

1) Man City averages 2.42 goals per game on road....Birmingham averages 1.91 goals per game at home.
Normally I would be all over the under, and the game would have 2 or 3 goals by the break.

Today Im thinking lets switch it up and take over 2.5, since the under seems too obvious.


2) West Ham averages 2.83 goals per game on road....Blackpool averages 3.60 goals per game at home.
Normally I would be all over the over.

Today Im thinking lets switch it up and take under 2.5, since the over seems too obvious.


Any thoughts..... am I a moron???

[Wilforth]

You're not a moron by any means. That's a winning strategy in the long run but I wouldn't touch the Under in a Blackpool game.

[Everton]

With you on the over for both although might go for 2.25.

[FindTheLock]

you can't just go by averages, because some games have red cards and late goals while their opponent was pressing that increase a teams goal scoring average unjustifiably. Imagine a team winning 6 or 7-0. That is going to shoot up their average even though the previous 3 games they only scored 1 a piece. That would make 9 goals in 4 games. They were averaging 1 goal a game and now they are averaging 2.25 goals assuming it was 6 in the 4th game. Try to do more in depth research on how the two teams have matched up in the past and make sure you keep an eye on PK's and red cards. In my opinion those types of goals are a wash when handicapping soccer. Unless a team is heavily prone to getting red cards. Then you can bet against them assuming there is a good chance of them getting booked during the game and possibly giving up a PK or 2.

[The Special One]

1) I predict 0-2 MNC...
2) I predict 2-2 draw...

obviously both contradict your picks, but... could easily be 1-2 MNC and 0-0 draw but I highly doubt it...

try the over in MNC but not under in WHU...

good luck

[Regul8er]

Fantastic.....just what I wanted to hear FindTheLock!
As mentioned, I don't have experience capping soccer, not even close to an expert and don't claim to be.

With that said, is there anything you like this afternoon?

[FindTheLock]

today I like fulham to win and the liverpool under 2.5. I like fulham because they have been playing red hot lately and they are bringing it home today. I hope!

[The Special One]

then again...

WHU could be low-scoring draw now that I think about it... could easily be 0-0 or 1-1...

[FindTheLock]

Another thing I didn't mention was home field advantage. Soccer is dominated by the home team more than any other sport in my opinion. You may see a team go on the road and lose 3-0 to a team, and then a week later play that same team on their home field and dominate them 3-0 right back. Check to see where the majority of those goals were scored, whether it being home or away, because sometimes teams play better on the road then they do at home. Always exceptions to the rules and it is never white and black. Some teams like barcelona it doesn't matter where they play because they have messi. Soccer is tricky, but It is one of my favorite sports.

[squintz4]

Not sure about the o/u in the Man City game, but I do think they get the Win today.

[Regul8er]

My reversal actually pays off. Manchester City gets a goal in the first 5 minutes. 2 more goals shouldn't be too difficult from this point

[Regul8er]

And an equalizer only 20 minutes later........caaaa-chingggggggg!!

[RedDevil11]

What a strike by Kolarov....nice to hit the over in the 1st half. congrats.

[Regul8er]

My posts were of the jinx variety. If I tell you guys what I decided to do, you wouldnt believe me.
Let's just say at the half, I'm 0-2, and owe way more money then I can afford.

I promise, this will be my last ever post in a soccer thread again. Goodluck Guys

How are there 6 games on tap.......3 of them are 0-0 at half, 1 is 1-0, and the other two are at 3 and 4 goals.
I took two unders.....guess which ones?

[Regul8er]

Im lucky.....I got it all back on Oklahoma +4.5 and Under 71.5 2nd Half.
I will NOT be betting soccer or tennis anymore....only focus on my bread and butter, and will NOT be betting above my head either!

[Hall2Collie]

Averages can be skewed

You need to watch these teams and see how they defend/how much importance they put on attacking play

Example: Blackpool and Arsenal are generally good for goals because they give most of their team liscence to roam forward

Teams like Fulham are very rigid and hope to counter attack for a 1-0 win.

[Regul8er]

I just simply don't have time to study soccer that in-depth.....and therefore need to quit betting it blindly.
I always seem to give back on European/International sports! I've learned and will refrain going forward.

[Hall2Collie]

I just simply don't have time to study soccer that in-depth.....and therefore need to quit betting it blindly.
I always seem to give back on European/International sports! I've learned and will refrain going forward.

I do the same with hockey totals sometimes

It's really a losing formula