Experiment 1: Self fading

[Mr.Kitty]

What do you do when you´re in a downswing and cant seem to win a bet? Do you keep trusting yourself, playing with reduced stakes and hoping that eventually it will turn around for the better again. Or do you experiment and hope you can turn it around that way. Personally I feel its time for me to experiment , my first attempt will be to fade myself .

12/1

Hamilton v Celtic

Hamilton have the not so flattering record of 0W-3D-6L at home, they have scored only 5 goals and conceded 15. Celtic is in a whole other league with 7W-0D-1L away from home, 12 goals scored and 4 conceded. After the very satisfying win against top contender Rangers, Celtic comes in with good confidence. Sometimes this can be a letdown spot, because you come in feeling great and expecting to roll over a team like Hamilton. But then you realize they are putting up a fight, and then it can be hard to break free from that mentality. I dont think this will be the case here. I fully expect Celtic to win here.

Both teams have played tight lately and have 5 straight games under 2.5 goals (including the cup), yet we can get a very good price on U2.5 @ 2.20. Hamilton has an home average of 2.22 goals. Celtic average 2 goals away from home. Hamilton has failed to score in 5 of their last 6 games. The last meeting @ Hamilton ended 0-1 for Celtic. I think the under definitely have value. For Celtic, forward Samaras will be missing.

My prediction would be: Celtic to win 0-2

Thats why my bets will be: Hamilton +1.5 @ 1.82 and over 2.5 @ 1.80 (odds from betfair)

Usually I would only make one bet per game but after all this is an experiment and I will play with reduced stakes. All bets are for 1 unit. Will have one more fade for tonight, to be continued...

[The Special One]

It's funny because you might start guessing everything correctly and then regret doing this... But good luck anyways!

[Mr.Kitty]

12/1

Blackpool - Liverpool

Coming into this game Blackpool have not failed to score and concede in all of their home games so far. All seven home games have gone over 2.5 goals. Liverpool with a new manager in Dalglish have to start performing better, often when a new manager comes in the team gets an imidiate positive effect. The odds is only 1.90 for Liverpool which is too small for me to take, and besides Blackpool doesnt have to shabby form (3W-1D-2L). When it comes to goals Liverpool is more or less a 50/50 team and have been for a few seasons. Right now they play 55% over total but 50% over on the road. Blackpool often play high scoring affairs, 68% goes over and 100% at home.

H2H they have met once, Blackpool surprisingly won in Liverpool with 1-2.

The obvious bet here would either be over 2.5 or both teams to score: Yes. But with the new manager that might settle for a draw if they dont have the lead with 15mins to go I would go for both teams to score: Yes.

Thats why my bet is: Both teams to score: No @ 2.18

[beefcake]

Hope it works!

Good luck!

[Mr.Kitty]

It's funny because you might start guessing everything correctly and then regret doing this... But good luck anyways!

Yeah, but the way I look at it its a win/win situation because either I win some money fading myself or I realize that I should stick with my prediction which would be a good thing.

[Mr.Kitty]

Hope it works! Good luck!

Thanks beefcake, it will be interesting to see how this works out .

[moreira]

good luck with your picks? or should i curse them since youre fading haha

[Mr.Kitty]

good luck with your picks? or should i curse them since youre fading haha

I dont know what would work best in this situation!?

[MadTiger]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Opposite

[Mr.Kitty]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Opposite

Hopefully I have the same luck George had!

[Josu]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Opposite

That episode was so awesome! George is awesome.

[EaglesPhan36]

I was already on that Hamilton pick before you posted. I think it's a decent one. Not sure about the self fading, but whatever changes your fortune!

[vgvarad]

Good luck to new manager! ))

[latinrus]

good luck with your picks? or should i curse them since youre fading haha

that was funny man!


As for u Mr. Kitty! BOL or WOL?


let's see how this goes hope the best way for u!

[bozeman]

look mr. kitty, maybe that is really fun to fade yourself, but you have to admit, you're playing with yourself, cause the fact that you lose a lot shows ya not that you choose exactly the opposite from the winner, but the fact your way of making choices isn't that effective, nothing else. So fading yourself as well as tailing in this case is nothing more than flipping a coin and betting either on something you get on top on on the bottom of it when it flips. So watch out or maybe just better feed the poor kid on the street or park your butt on the beach for a couple of weeks, cause eventually longterm you're gonna lose following that tactic. Been there - done that - got the T-shirt.

[Mr.Kitty]

look mr. kitty, maybe that is really fun to fade yourself, but you have to admit, you're playing with yourself, cause the fact that you lose a lot shows ya not that you choose exactly the opposite from the winner, but the fact your way of making choices isn't that effective, nothing else. So fading yourself as well as tailing in this case is nothing more than flipping a coin and betting either on something you get on top on on the bottom of it when it flips. So watch out or maybe just better feed the poor kid on the street or park your butt on the beach for a couple of weeks, cause eventually longterm you're gonna lose following that tactic. Been there - done that - got the T-shirt.

Believe me, I know this is frivolous. And its not meant to be serious either, its not a long-term strategy but a way to break the pattern and have some fun for a day or two. I do this as a hobby like most of us but believe me I am in it to win so dont point me out as a loser if thats what you´re trying to do. I used to post my soccer picks and had a 68W-48L-8P record before I stopped due to several reasons. But everyone have bad periods in betting, you cant always win. I am just trying to find my way back into the winners circle again .

[JOHON8]

nice win, Hamilton should've won that game if it wasn't for a 90th minute goal.

[Mr.Kitty]

My day of self fading has come to an end, the result was 1-2, -1.18 units. Which mean I would have won with my normal predictions. After only one day and three picks I cant tell if this was a sucess or not, in a way it was and in another it was a complete waist of time . Self fading might not be the solution, maybe I need to find an animal that can pick winners for me .

Hamilton 1 - 1 Celtic

Blackpool 2 - 1 Liverpool

[latinrus]

who's in ur avy Mr' Kitty?

[Mr.Kitty]

who's in ur avy Mr' Kitty?

Its Brittney Palmer, she was the ring girl for WEC (World Extreme Cage Fighting) before they merged with the UFC so now shes a UFC ring girl.