The Italian Job

[bostonbruins]

I have a hard time believing that favorites win more often than draw or lose in Italy Serie A or B, so I'm starting this thread to track just that.

0.5 unit plays on the dog and draw when the lines are at least +200 for each. I'm no math expert but it looks like a favorite winning costs me 1 unit , any other results breaks even or better.


This looks to be about the halfway point in the season so I think it's a good time to start, this is for research purposes only but it's something I need to do because soccer has been driving me crazy lately.

[bostonbruins]

Good day to start huge favorite and it's the only game of the day

Grosseto (+812) 0.5u
Grosseto/Atalanta Draw (+330) 0.5u

[The Special One]

you have a great point here... I find that HOME advantage is quite overrated in the Italian leagues and that the odds are inflated because of that... it is more profitable to pick a side in a game based on form and ability rather than simply being at home...

I will follow this forum and hope that you discover a profitable trend

[bostonbruins]

I understand the win percentage will be very low but I'm only interested in the end result


Record: 0-2 -1u



Pescara (+715) 0.5u
Pescara/Siena Draw (+309) 0.5u

[hustla]

If you can tolerate the high variance, you will make some profit with this stuff, good luck

[bozeman]

man it would be easier just to spend half a day going through some website from the history of those leagues and not waste time on a 55-60 percent system

[bostonbruins]

I'm not interested in history, I'm looking at the 2nd half of this season, and if these bets hit 55-60 % I wouldn't exactly say it's waste of time since the average line will be over +200.

[The Special One]

Keep going BB. Follow your first instinct...

[bostonbruins]

Got lines from Bodog because I slept late , might have missed out on a few games

Record 0-4 -2u


Triestina +300 LOSS
Triestina/Albinoleffe Draw +215 WIN

Frosinone +380 LOSS
Frosinone/Empoli Draw +225 LOSS

Padova +350 LOSS
Padova/Novara Draw +240 WIN

Portogruaro +400 LOSS
Portogruaro/Cittadella Draw +210 WIN

[bostonbruins]

Record 3-9 -0.93u

[bostonbruins]

Bologna +1284
Bologna/Inter Draw +462

Fiorentina +509
Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273

[bostonbruins]

Bologna +1284
Bologna/Inter Draw +462

Fiorentina +509 LOSS
Fiorentina/Napoli Draw +273 WIN

Record 4-10 -.07u

[bostonbruins]

Record 4-12 -1.07u


Reggina +212
Reggina/Crotone Draw +202

[The Special One]

hey BB, you should have tried this on Lecce vs Milan - easy $$$$ money on DRAW...

[bostonbruins]

I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up

[The Special One]

I will miss some , these games usually start before I wake up

when do you wake up? the game was at 2:45pm...

[bostonbruins]

There are some rough nights man , but I actually missed that one due to NFL

[The Special One]

true, I was just joking...

[bostonbruins]

Record 4-12 -1.07u


Reggina +212 LOSS
Reggina/Crotone Draw +202 WIN

Record: 5-13 -.56u

[bostonbruins]

Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


Record: 5-13 -.56u


Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

[The Special One]

Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


Record: 5-13 -.56u


Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

hey BB, I wouldnt do that, because DOGS will begin to win and you will regret...

[amonsot]

Revising this and only taking the draw bet from now on..


Record: 5-13 -.56u


Cesena/Inter Draw (+508) 0.5u

just so i follow. you are now betting small on favourites to draw a game? how are you picking the games?

[bostonbruins]

Record: 5-14 -1.06u


Brescia/Palermo Draw +374
Cagliari/Roma Draw +289


Sunday

Lecce/Fiorentina Draw +333
Cesena/AC Milan Draw +606

[bostonbruins]

Record: 6-17 -0.89u



Novara/Triestina Draw +207

[rfr3sh]

boston

check out www.soccerstats.com they have kept track of the winning %'s this season for each league you can see it on the home page

[bostonbruins]

Record: 7-17 +0.14u


thanks for the site, looks good

[JOHON8]

I'm surprised you never took Udinese to win vs Inter, they were the underdogs of the season in that game. What is it like 13 goals in 4 games they have? Def a team that's actually challenging for the title.

[bostonbruins]

Gambling is taking a backseat to other things right now, missing alot


Record: 7-17 +0.14u


Padova/Livorno Draw +231

[bostonbruins]

Record: 8-17 +1.3u

[bostonbruins]

Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249

[ararat2010]

Atalanta/Frosinone Draw +249

Like it - lets cash! BOL )))

[bostonbruins]

Record: 8-18 +0.8u

[Optional]

Your record should really read 8-6, taken on a match by match basis.

Agree with those that say you should stick with the .5 unit on win and draw idea too. Or just take the spread on the dog.

[psv777ua]

[bostonbruins]

Spread on the dog would probably yield a higher win percentage but I think the prices would put me in the red before too long. I stuck with the draws because they seem more likely than a dog winning outright.