BETTING ON THE DRAW: following a team, a profitable way

[papapapaolo]

hi everybody, i'm new to this forum i wanna talk you about betting on the draw.
i'm sure most of yous already know this strategy.

Now, in a random match the X"draw" is always(almost always) paid at 3,00 when the match is appereantly tight.
the most common odds are 3,00, 3.20, 3.15 and so on...so always at least 3.

if the match is like bigfav vs underdog the odd will go up to 4, 4.5, 5....

now if we start picking up a team betting on his draw we won't need to double the stake amount next week to be winner cause the odd will always be favourable.

exemple:

1week= 5€ on the draw result:loss
2 week= 7 on the draw result:loss
3 week= 10 on the draw result :loss
4 week= 12 on the draw result: draw!!

random odd. 3.20 12*3.20=38.4

total amount risked up to date= 34



i need to perfectionate this and i'd like to ask you if u know a formula or something to know how much to I have to risk each time(in function of the odd) to maximize my gains(or minimize the loss).

THANK YOu

[Ruifgalmeida]

nobody likes to bet on a draw.
My opinion 80% of times draw have absolutly no value ,and there much varience in that market, you would have to be willing to lose 8 or 10(or worse)bets on a normal bad streak ,bookies know how to cap draw almost perfectly.

[Optional]

Have you heard of Kelly? Might be what you are seeking by the sounds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

You will need to determine your own true probability of a draw for each match to use it though.

[syamster]

not bad, i am going to paper trade this strategy. Its good to start with mid table teams in Italy

[papapapaolo]

that's what i did after seeing that Brescia hadn't drawn since the first 6 matchs.

i started betting on the draw and they got after 2 games against inter Milan.
the odd was 5

the week after that they drawn against Juve.3.75

now i'm FSV Frankfurt "bundesliga2" and Lille "france "

[Daveyboy]

If you want to bet on the draw, try Fulham in the Premier League or Manchester United in away games!

[JOHON8]

It's a chasing strategy. In the long run you will not make any money. You'll need to get on hot streaks to make profits, just like betting normal games, except your risk is a lot higher. That's my advice.

But if you're going to go with it anyways, keep a record here, good luck.

[Tommy_de1st]

I used to do that kind of draw betting a lot. Played almost 300 teams at one time. I actually was even good at it. you can make money on it but you need to implement wise Money Management System. This is like all season project. You gotta set up a limit level for those plays and if one of those teams fails to draw, the money you lost have to be graded as a loss. Otherwise you gonna chase and lose more.
If you do it for the 1st time i can advise you to pick the teams on paper. Once you become more experienced and pick like 40% draws (in say 6 levels) you ready to go

[Tommy_de1st]

I forgot to add why i stopped betting draws. When you play one team to get a draw in, say their next 6 matches, your money are frozen untill they get the result. Now imagine that i played 200-300 teams

[papapapaolo]

200-300 hundreds are too many im my opininion.
i used to do that on kind of 10 teams for two reasons.
1-like that you can analyze and pick up better teams , overall by seeing since how long they're not drawing.
2-beacuse of the reason of the freezed money, i always use that as a supporting strategy-not the mainly one.
i use kind of 10/15% of my bankroll on this, so I might soften the losses or boost up the winnings

i never write down too much what i do so maybe this percentages are not 100% true:P
cant get stats from my betting, it takes too much time

[zlate22]

i dont like this sistem of progression

[zlate22]

u cant win a big money playing like that but u can lose a lot

[Duff85]

This sounds like another system that has no real merit. Learn about capping markets and bet games world wide.