Two contrarian plays - Thursday

[Wilforth]

Italy: Parma/Sampdoria

Parma
1) Parma have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 league games (0.2 goal per game)
2) Parma are winless in their last 9 league games
3) Parma are currently 18th in the league table

Sampdoria
1) Sampdoria have scored 5 goals in their last 5 league games (1 goal per game)
2) Sampdoria have won 3 league games including 2 wins in their last 5 outings
3) Sampdoria are currently 6th in the league table
3) Sampdoria have 2 wins in their last 3 visits to Parma

With all those stats, you'd expect these:
1) No way can this game go Over
2) No way can Sampdoria lose to Parma

First of all, the books have access to all the data above but have installed Parma as the favorite. The Parma line opened at +145 and has quickly dropped to +130 and even +125 in some places, while Sampdoria is being pounded relentlessly.

One thing we need to know here is that this is the only Serie A game today.

The only thing you need to do before betting on this game is to ask yourself a simple question: "how do the books make money?".

I'm going with these picks:

Parma +130 2u to win 2.6u
Parma/Sampdoria OVER 2 (-130) 1.30u to win 1u

[fixxer]

I agree with Parma, but not sure about the over....btw (from the odds), isn't it OVER 2.5 what you are playing?

[Wilforth]

I agree with Parma, but not sure about the over....btw (from the odds), isn't it OVER 2.5 what you are playing?

The o/u is at 2. I don't know if you can find the total for this game at 2.5 in this world. Everyone believes "no way" will there be more than 2 goals in this game.

[JOHON8]

Look at Parma's schedule, hard to see them getting a point for the next 5 games, this is a good opprotunity. If Parma has any decency as a club they should win this game.

[Giuvara]

Good luck, wise Wilforth and thank you for writing down your thoughts. I like how you're constantly seeking value and I am sure you are on + in the long run. Nice win on Blackburn yesterday.

[Rixsaw]

what about the chance that it will end is a draw?

[PickApprentice]

Yes, I agree. Going for a Parma win is a bit risky. It is better to hedge for a draw as well. That is what I am going to do.

Good luck all!

[JOHON8]

watching this game live, pitch is very foggy can't see a thing.

[Wilforth]

Nonsense!

There goes Parma 1-0.

That's enough for a win. They'll hold onto that lead forever.

[Wilforth]

Parma +130 2u to win 2.6u WIN
Parma/Sampdoria OVER 2 (-130) 1.30u to win 1u LOSS

1-1 +1.3u

Will update my record later.

[sportfan]

Tailed you on Parma , nice call , keep them coming Wilforth

[nobull]

i am 50% on board with these picks.............good luck to all

[Rixsaw]

excellent call Wil

[Giuvara]

And Wilforth delivered. Thank you for the plays, I also followed.