Smogs 2010/11 Season Picks

[Smogs]

Following my bet of the year win, 4.8 units won from 6 wagered, i'll start a thread for the season.
I know i'm only a 50/50 punter but hopefully i can build a steady bankroll, which will include my NFL picks in here.

To give an idea of how big 6 units is for me, i usually bet between 0.5 and 1 unit per bet.

[JOHON8]

Great to see you back Smogs, GL with your season.

[Smogs]

I'm just going to go with the Premier League today and here are my picks, starting slow with the unit sizes, i want to build slowly from the 4.8 units i'm up already.

The odds are fair on a WBA win today, they have been very strong at home against a Fulham side that are notoriously bad on the road.
However, we can see from that stats that this season Fulham have drawn all 4 of their away games so far this season whilst WBA have drawn 2 and won 2 of their home games this season.
I actually think Fulham will win this game outright but i'll take:

Fulham +0.5 @ 1.825 for 0.5 Units

I see goals in the early game, Spurs and Everton, and with both able to score, and the odds looking quite tasty, given that Spurs have scored 11 in their last 4, Everton have two wins on the trot and 4 goals in that time, i feel the over 2.25 @ 1.8 is a great price and i'll have another half unit on that

I think it is wrong for the odds to favour the over in the Blackpool game. Yes, Blackpool are going to thrive on overs this season but in this instance i feel both teams are going to struggle to score.
Birmingham have been struggling all year for goals and their defence, especially at home is still a major force to be reckoned with.
I think Blackpool are due a bad day in front of goal and with the odds currently sitting at 1.85 for the under 2.75, i'll take it for another half unit

Bolton have been a team i am looking at today and i'll be more than happy to take them on today.
Wigan are awful as a team, and at home they are as bad as it gets. Against Wolves they were shocking and needed the red card to win it, then they threw away a win at Newcastle so i think they will struggle in this one and i will happily bet on Bolton on the handicap.

Bolton +0.25 @ 1.8 for 1 Unit *(Bet of the day)*

Only 2.5 units staked, let's see how it goes fellas - and BOL to anyone on these plays

[badbyzdmx]

glad to c u back

[Smogs]

Great to see you back Smogs, GL with your season.

Thanks dude, BOL to you today

[phenomenon]

gl smog

[colout]

Good luck today Smogs

[acestreet]

good luck with it smogs,i hope you have a winning season.

[Sanka]

GL Smogs

[colout]

great start in the early game!

[Smogs]

great start in the early game!

Yeh, worst case scenario i lose half my stake so it's looking positive

[Smogs]

Just adding: 0.6 Units on Borussia M'Gladbach/ Werder over 3 @ -155

The stats look too good to pass on for this game and it looks like it should end 3-3 or something close to that.


NCAA Bets today:

North Carolina +6.5 -110, 0.5U
Iowa -6 -110, 1.2U
N'Western +5.5 -110, 0.5U
Baylor -6.5 -110, 0.6U
OK ST +6 -110, 0.7U
Alabama -17 -110, 0.6U
Utah ST +3.5 -110, 0.6U
Georgia -4 -110, 0.8U


MLB:

Giants/Phils Under 7 @ +100, 0.5U

[LostBankroll]

Best of Luck on the CFB card Smogs. Iowa is your strongest play today in CFB?

[rb3b3]

I'm just going to go with the Premier League today and here are my picks, starting slow with the unit sizes, i want to build slowly from the 4.8 units i'm up already.

The odds are fair on a WBA win today, they have been very strong at home against a Fulham side that are notoriously bad on the road.
However, we can see from that stats that this season Fulham have drawn all 4 of their away games so far this season whilst WBA have drawn 2 and won 2 of their home games this season.
I actually think Fulham will win this game outright but i'll take:

Fulham +0.5 @ 1.825 for 0.5 Units

I see goals in the early game, Spurs and Everton, and with both able to score, and the odds looking quite tasty, given that Spurs have scored 11 in their last 4, Everton have two wins on the trot and 4 goals in that time, i feel the over 2.25 @ 1.8 is a great price and i'll have another half unit on that

I think it is wrong for the odds to favour the over in the Blackpool game. Yes, Blackpool are going to thrive on overs this season but in this instance i feel both teams are going to struggle to score.
Birmingham have been struggling all year for goals and their defence, especially at home is still a major force to be reckoned with.
I think Blackpool are due a bad day in front of goal and with the odds currently sitting at 1.85 for the under 2.75, i'll take it for another half unit

Bolton have been a team i am looking at today and i'll be more than happy to take them on today.
Wigan are awful as a team, and at home they are as bad as it gets. Against Wolves they were shocking and needed the red card to win it, then they threw away a win at Newcastle so i think they will struggle in this one and i will happily bet on Bolton on the handicap.

Bolton +0.25 @ 1.8 for 1 Unit *(Bet of the day)*

Only 2.5 units staked, let's see how it goes fellas - and BOL to anyone on these plays

does this mean take bolton to win on the money line?

[Smogs]

Best of Luck on the CFB card Smogs. Iowa is your strongest play today in CFB?

Yeah, they are by far the strongest play

does this mean take bolton to win on the money line?

No, i wouldn't be surprised to see a 0-0 here. My bet is the asian handicap option. Notice the smaller odds, the ml is 2/1

[Smogs]

Shame about spurs/everton staying under. No goal for the last 70 minutes of the game.

At least there's an early goal in the Werder game

[LostBankroll]

Yeah, they are by far the strongest play




No, i wouldn't be surprised to see a 0-0 here. My bet is the asian handicap option. Notice the smaller odds, the ml is 2/1

I hope so I took the u2.5

[Smogs]

hmmm, things were looking great at ten past three but it's not so bad i guess. Werder have done the job and if only Fulham weren't sh*t things would be very nice

[Smogs]

Pretty sure i made some profit today, werder bremen couldn't have made it easier tbh.

Last NCAAF bet today:

Indiana +12.5, -110 - 1U
Indiana ML @ +390 - 0.2U

[Smogs]

Last football bet of the day:

West Ham -0.25 & Over 2.5 goals (Both at evens) 0.5U each

I'd love a 2-1/3-0 home win here and win both bets to make it a fantastic day and i think these have a good chance.

West Ham have scored in their last 6 games although usually not above the one goal.
This has been seen by their pretty atrocious goal scoring record this season with just 6 in 8 games. They have conceded 15 though and considering Newcastle have seen 12 goals scored and conceded apiece this season and 5 overs from their 8 games i expect goals today.

[Smogs]

Out all day today, but love the Lyon setup today.

Lyon -1 @ 1.85 for 1 Unit *(Bet of the Day)*

[Ruff]

Out all day today, but love the Lyon setup today.

Lyon -1 @ 1.85 for 1 Unit *(Bet of the Day)*

can we get a late goal and push this?

[steviec27]

Unlucky on Lyon today and on some of yesterdays picks also

Good luck for the thread mate

[Smogs]

Unlucky on Lyon today and on some of yesterdays picks also

Good luck for the thread mate

Cheers fella, that lyon f*k up pushed me into the red i think. I'll post the record when i'm free

[steviec27]

You will get it back you know ur stuff mate
Think I saw you were on Norwich yesterday maybe?? If so good call, betting against boro atm is a good thing lol....rumor has it Paul Ince to be announced as manager soon, dunno how much truth but i hope not!!!

[Smogs]

Record going into the weekend is 5-3 +4.35 Units

I have a couple of picks but i'm not going silly stake wise today.
Just 1.2 units on the line

Arsenal/West Ham - any unquoted score (above 3-0 or 2-2 etc) @ +150 for 0.3Units

West Ham are having a shocking season and look very poor all over the pitch. I don't think Avram Grant will be able to do anything for them and now they go across London to Arsenal who will see this as a big opportunity to pull clear in second with United in a banana skin matchup with spurs. Arsenal have won 2 of the last 3 meetings by 2 goals, both 2-0 with a 0-0 sandwiched in between so it is now 4 years since west ham scored against the gunners. I cannot see them offering anything up front so the emphasis is just on arsenal to score, which i think they will do easily. The 4-0 win midweek at newcastle will set them up perfectly for this and can build on recent winning form.

Fulham @ -120 v Wigan for 0.5 Units

I think the odds are a little undervalued but i still think Fulham will come out of this game with the win. Wigan are undefeated on the road so far this season and somehow managed to beat spurs. I fully believe that wigan will not win again on the road this season and they are quite honestly, shockingly bad. I watched them in their home games with wolves and Bolton and i just see nothing from them. Fulham will be kicking themselves after throwing away a win at wba and i think they will see off wigan no problems

St Mirren v Aberdeen
Under 2.5 @ -125 for 0.4 Units

I love the scenario in this game and i cannot help but slam the under given how the head to head goes between these teams. Just one in the last ten meetings at st mirren over recent years has gone over and usually we see just the one goal being scored. I see this once again ending 1-0 to either team, i can\'t really pick a winner but i know that with aberdeen a perennial under team, this has cracking odds that we may not see again this season on a matchup like this. If i see a goal first half i'll be shocked and whilst both teams like to conceded, neither is very good at scoring themselves

[cogiditopapa]

Record going into the weekend is 5-3 +4.35 Units

I have a couple of picks but i'm not going silly stake wise today.
Just 1.2 units on the line

Arsenal/West Ham - any unquoted score (above 3-0 or 2-2 etc) @ +150 for 0.3Units

West Ham are having a shocking season and look very poor all over the pitch. I don't think Avram Grant will be able to do anything for them and now they go across London to Arsenal who will see this as a big opportunity to pull clear in second with United in a banana skin matchup with spurs. Arsenal have won 2 of the last 3 meetings by 2 goals, both 2-0 with a 0-0 sandwiched in between so it is now 4 years since west ham scored against the gunners. I cannot see them offering anything up front so the emphasis is just on arsenal to score, which i think they will do easily. The 4-0 win midweek at newcastle will set them up perfectly for this and can build on recent winning form.

Fulham @ -120 v Wigan for 0.5 Units

I think the odds are a little undervalued but i still think Fulham will come out of this game with the win. Wigan are undefeated on the road so far this season and somehow managed to beat spurs. I fully believe that wigan will not win again on the road this season and they are quite honestly, shockingly bad. I watched them in their home games with wolves and Bolton and i just see nothing from them. Fulham will be kicking themselves after throwing away a win at wba and i think they will see off wigan no problems

St Mirren v Aberdeen
Under 2.5 @ -125 for 0.4 Units

I love the scenario in this game and i cannot help but slam the under given how the head to head goes between these teams. Just one in the last ten meetings at st mirren over recent years has gone over and usually we see just the one goal being scored. I see this once again ending 1-0 to either team, i can\'t really pick a winner but i know that with aberdeen a perennial under team, this has cracking odds that we may not see again this season on a matchup like this. If i see a goal first half i'll be shocked and whilst both teams like to conceded, neither is very good at scoring themselves

Tailing you on the Scotlan game under GL

[Netprofit]

Smogs, good to see you, good luck!

[Squirrel]

GL Smogster - thought you'd have been on the Boro to kickstart the "mogga revolution".

[Smogs]

GL Smogster - thought you'd have been on the Boro to kickstart the "mogga revolution".

Lol, there is no way i'd put my money on Boro atm, they won't lose but i don't like the odds of the double chance or pk so best left alone.
At least we should score a goal or two.

Gl today squirrel

[Squirrel]

I fancied a Boro win today to be honest, they've actually played ok in the last 2 games and although the "new manager boost" is an absolute myrth there isnt many worse teams in the division than Brizzle City right now.

[Karayilan9]

Good luck Smogs, hope Mobray can turn round Boro aswel, had high hopes for the Smoggies they should turn things around soon.

[Smogs]

We can definitely count Arsenal bet as a loss, Arsenal have approached this game awfully whilst west ham actually look tough to break down

[Smogs]

Record: 6-5 +4.05 Units

Last week was a kick in the baws with Aberdeen shipping a last minute goal to cost me a 2-1 week.

Onto this week and it is once again just 3 picks so far for Saturday.

You will see i get shocking odds this week, my money is in Diamond for the NFL, and i can't be arsed putting it into Bet365 so i'm getting ripped on odds.

1 Unit - Everton @ -130 vs Blackpool

Thinking about this game, the majority of punters will think that this is due for a high scoring game, as is the case with most blackpool games.
However, i think that with everton going to dominate this game, blackpool will find it very hard to even create chances, and ultimately will concede given their openess in the way they play.
Everton's 2 goals conceded last 6 has been a testament to how they have tightened up and improved as the season goes into the second quarter.
For all blackpools good play, they still only have 7 goals from their last 6 and the likes of jagielka and distin will be able to cope and see a close away win

0.7 Units - Birmingham/West Ham Under 2.5 @ -155

I cannot see this game going over and at worst, 3 goals would be scored, making this game i feel good value for the under.
It will be tight all the way through and i believe goals to be at a premium, as both have struggled somewhat in front of goal.
West Ham look awful at times and lost under Grant, and i think they will struggle to score at all.
Head to head, this game has gone under the last 2 meetings and as a result, and the strike forces on offer, the under is quite pricey.
I think it will do the graveyard on motd saturday and it'll be lucky to see a goal at all

0.5 Units - Nott'm Forest PK @ Watford, +110

GL guys

[Smogs]

Well - ever since my bet of the season i have been on the slide, and every week i get excited about how it will improve, but it never does

Anyway, until i hit some kind of hot streak, i am still betting quite small, so here are tonight's picks. Sorry for lack of write up - i just haven't the time atm with work etc.

0.8U Blackburn +0.25 1st Half @ evens

0.6U Everton -0.75 @ 4/5

0.6U Man City PK @ evens

0.3U Under 9.5 corners Wigan/Pool @ 10/11 (funnily enough i love this bet the most but having never really dabbled in this market i'm keeping it small)