My O/U soccer thread

schenker88 · 09-25-10, 07:31 AM

1:1 last time

today:
England » Premier League » West Ham - Tottenham >> O2,5 >> -105 >> 2u
Germany » Bundesliga » Eintracht Frankfurt - Nurnberg >> O2,5 >> -103 >> 1u
Germany » Bundesliga » VfB Stuttgart - Bayer Leverkusen >> O2,75 >> -114 >> 1u (low value)
Germany » Bundesliga » Werder Bremen - Hamburger >> O2,75 >> -119 >> 1u (low value)

Blue_Chips · 09-25-10, 09:23 AM

I like the plays and this thread. Good luck today!

schenker88 · 09-25-10, 10:11 AM

thanks but only for tracking purposes yet...
i would like to take part in a soccer thread that guarantees consistent profits... everyones opinion is much appreciated!

if u guys would like to take advantage over bookies and have an edge when betting then please come around here and discuss plays
i think the most important thing is not only picking winners, but also finding value bets/odds/chances
i dont like high juice!

schenker88 · 09-25-10, 10:40 AM

addition:

Italy » Serie A » AS Roma - Inter >> O2,5 >> -105 >> 1u

Marginalis · 09-25-10, 01:25 PM

GL schenker88.

jahred6999 · 09-25-10, 01:31 PM

Does anyone really watch soccer?

schenker88 · 09-27-10, 06:18 AM

okay... heres a fresh start
forget previous things!

from now on i calculate every play the same way
i try to get an edge while predict ou outcomes... only value bets

i use only major european leagues for capping

schenker88 · 09-27-10, 06:41 AM

supposed to be a bankroll of 500 units
the weakest play is 5u (1%) the strongest is 20-25u (4-5%)
this number also represents an edge (advantage) over bookies line

leagues i shall track:
Eng Ger Fra Ita Spa Eng2 Ger2 Fra2 Ita2 Spa2

only one pick today:
5u Malaga/Villareal U2,5 (-103US) no bet under 1,938EU

schenker88 · 09-27-10, 06:50 PM

2009.09.28 ENG2 plays

CARDIFF/CRYSTAL U2,5 16,2u @2,136
SCOUNTHORPE/BARNSLEY O2,5 7,9u @1,960
WATFORD/SWANSEA U2,5 7,9u @1,926
READING/IPSWITCH U2,5 7,4u @1,943

schenker88 · 09-28-10, 10:29 AM

only 4 england championship plays today... id love to but i dont know any good calculations for non-league games (european cups and so on...) yet

i am confident that these ou selections will perform well long term!

-5u so far (and a starting bankroll of 500u)

schenker88 · 09-28-10, 04:12 PM

i am very happy with todays results:
we went 2-2 but nice hit on the largest value bet!
remember the 500 units bankroll and this is only an investment test!

CARDIFF/CRYSTAL U2,5 16,2u @2,136
SCOUNTHORPE/BARNSLEY O2,5 7,9u @1,960
WATFORD/SWANSEA U2,5 7,9u @1,926
READING/IPSWITCH U2,5 7,4u @1,943

today: +18,4u-7,9u-7,9u+7u = +9,6u

overall: +4,26u

i continue keeping exact results of these investment plays

schenker88 · 09-29-10, 03:38 AM

no plays today...
next action day is probably friday (no FRA2 fits)

schenker88 · 09-30-10, 05:08 PM

Tomorrow

Friday: Germany Bundesliga 2.

1 action today:

Paderborn/Bielefeld O2,5 3,6u @2,098

schenker88 · 10-01-10, 05:47 AM

2010.10.02 bets

so far i have: (more possibles to come later)

CRYSTAL/QPR U2,5 6,6u @2,020
DONCASTER/NOTTINGHAM U2,5 6,6u @1,820
LEICESTER/SCUNTHORPE O2,5 2,7u @1,990
PRESTON/REDING O2,5 12u @1,862
SWANSEA/DERBY U2,5 12,9u @1,990
SUNDERLAND/MAN UTD O2,5 2,5u @2,050
WESTHAM/FULHAM O2,5 16,9u @2,190
MAINZ/HOFFENHEIM U2,5 6u @1,962

Blue_Chips · 10-01-10, 06:09 AM

Good luck today!

ararat2010 · 10-01-10, 06:29 AM

What do u think about
Friday: Germany Bundesliga 2.
Duisburg - Oberhausen <2.5 @ 1.95?

schenker88 · 10-01-10, 01:53 PM

sorry but i was not home sir...
nice hit today with bielefeld

i also calculated chances and values for this play but there was not enough edge to pull the trigger on that over
i dont remember the exact numbers already
it does not matter i know but i do the calculations once more

just 4 u

i write here the results soon

schenker88 · 10-01-10, 02:16 PM

Let us assume that:

The lines for this match were -105us over2,5 and -105 under2,5 when u wanted to bet on it
my calculation says:
The overall probability is 57,8% on this match to go over the totals (2,5)
(under 2,5 probability is 100%-57,8%)
when i made my calculations for the first time the lines were others... I did not have at least 5% advantage over the bookies over line and therefore that was a no bet for me
supposing that u managed to get -105 for going both under and over, the over has 7,8% advantage in this case
i would play that over if i would get that line
(consistent with reason taking under had -7,8% advantege or 7,8% disadvantage)

schenker88 · 10-01-10, 04:41 PM

ITALY - Serie B addition

Grosseto/Frosinone O2,5 5,8u @2,39
+
CRYSTAL/QPR U2,5 6,6u @2,020
DONCASTER/NOTTINGHAM U2,5 6,6u @1,820
LEICESTER/SCUNTHORPE O2,5 2,7u @1,990
PRESTON/REDING O2,5 12u @1,862
SWANSEA/DERBY U2,5 12,9u @1,990
SUNDERLAND/MAN UTD O2,5 2,5u @2,050
WESTHAM/FULHAM O2,5 16,9u @2,190
MAINZ/HOFFENHEIM U2,5 6u @1,962

(todays result: Paderborn/Bielefeld O2,5 3,6u @2,098)

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 06:58 AM

3 further additions of today

TRIESTINA/CROTONE U2,25 2,7u @1,850
VALENCIA/ATH.BILBAO U2,5 7,4u @2,111
HUESCA/CELTA U2,5 8,2u @1,725

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 07:42 AM

Addition

Helsingborg/gais U2,5 8,1u @2,03

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 07:55 AM

Leagues i track so far:

eng, eng2
ger, ger2
fra, fra2
ita, ita2
spa, spa2
ned, swe, por, bra

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 08:00 AM

Todays card

Originally posted by schenker88

grosseto/frosinone o2,5 5,8u @2,39
crystal/qpr u2,5 6,6u @2,020
doncaster/nottingham u2,5 6,6u @1,820
leicester/scunthorpe o2,5 2,7u @1,990
preston/reding o2,5 12u @1,862
swansea/derby u2,5 12,9u @1,990
sunderland/man utd o2,5 2,5u @2,050
westham/fulham o2,5 16,9u @2,190
mainz/hoffenheim u2,5 6u @1,962

Originally posted by schenker88

triestina/crotone u2,25 2,7u @1,850
valencia/ath.bilbao u2,5 7,4u @2,111
huesca/celta u2,5 8,2u @1,725

helsingborg/gais u2,5 8,1u @2,03

(possible additions from brazil serie a later but no more plays today from other leagues i track)

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 11:00 AM

Final additions today

As promised, here they are: Brazil Serie A plays
thats all for today... bol 2 us all

Gre.prudente/fluminense o2,5 6,2u
santos/palmeiras o2,5 6,9u
cruzeiro/atl.par u2,5 9,3u

schenker88 · 10-02-10, 04:24 PM

Brazil Serie A

Avai/sao paulo o2,5 6,9u @1,885

schenker88 · 10-03-10, 05:11 AM

today

CHELSEA/ARSENAL O2,5 11,8u @1,850
NAPOLI/AS ROMA O2,5 13,2u @1,943

schenker88 · 10-03-10, 05:22 AM

INTER/JUVENTUS O2,5 5,4u @1,901

schenker88 · 10-03-10, 06:54 AM

VILLAREAL/RACING U2,5 6,5u @1,980

schenker88 · 10-05-10, 05:47 AM

Summary

a quick summary so far:

malaga/villareal U2,5
CARDIFF/CRYSTAL U2,5
SCOUNTHORPE/BARNSLEY O2,5
WATFORD/SWANSEA U2,5
READING/IPSWITCH U2,5
PADERBORN/BIELEFELD O2,5
GRE.PRUDENTE/FLUMINENSE O2,5
CRYSTAL/QPR U2,5
DONCASTER/NOTTINGHAM U2,5
LEICESTER/SCUNTHORPE O2,5
PRESTON/REDING O2,5
SWANSEA/DERBY U2,5
SUNDERLAND/MAN UTD O2,5
WESTHAM/FULHAM O2,5
MAINZ/HOFFENHEIM U2,5
Grosseto/Frosinone O2,5
TRIESTINA/CROTONE U2,5
VALENCIA/ATH.BILBAO U2,5
HUESCA/CELTA U2,5
HELSINGBORG/GAIS U2,5
SANTOS/PALMEIRAS O2,5
CRUZEIRO/ATL.PAR U2,5
AVAI/SAO PAULO O2,5
CHELSEA/ARSENAL O2,5
NAPOLI/AS ROMA O2,5
INTER/JUVENTUS O2,5
VILLAREAL/RACING U2,5

9 wins - 18 losses: 33,33%
-65,62u (based on a 500u bankroll)

schenker88 · 10-07-10, 02:03 PM

2010.10.09. England League 1: Walsall/Exeter O2,5 6,5u @1,95
2010.10.11. England League 1: Swindon/Bristol O2,5 9,9u @2,00

schenker88 · 10-09-10, 08:20 AM

Gremio Prudente/Sao Paulo O2,5 8u @1,96
Rayo/Villareal B O2,5 9,3u @1,89
Elche/Albacete O2,5 5,5u @2,28

Blue_Chips · 10-09-10, 09:02 AM

What country are these teams in?

schenker88 · 10-09-10, 03:46 PM

brazil and spain (segunda)

schenker88 · 10-10-10, 04:27 AM

todays addition

Brazil Serie A: Goias/Vitoria O2,5 10u @1,95