jakeandba experimental EPL soccer picks

minet123 · 08-23-10, 11:36 PM

Good Luck love the Blackburn play

jakeandba · 08-26-10, 10:36 PM

ok gonna add Germany, Italy, and Spain picks. Gonna play on +1 plays to draw. Again all plays for 1 unit

German
Bayern v Kaisers to draw

Italy
Still researching

Spain
Still researching

jakeandba · 09-06-10, 05:15 PM

As an update to my research....the idea was the following. took the scores from the previous week and run a standard deviation on goals for...this would serve as a filter thus cutting down the number of plays. To get a good sample was able to do the first 27 weeks, this gave a sample size of roughly 65%. The results in teams falling into +1 and +2 category. (Since a score could not below 0, then there was no neg -1 or -2 category). This was with EPL for the past 2 seasons

the results are as follows:

08-09
betting against the +1 team= 1 unit gained

09 10
betting against the +1 team = 1 unit gained

as you can see this is not a good method

08-09
betting against the +1 = loss of 23 units

09-10
betting against the +1 = loss of 1 unit

Playing the draw for +1 teams

08-09
Plus 8 units

09-10
huge loss (actually stopped counting since it was huge)

next category:

08-09
Betting against +2 teams= loss of 11 units

09-10
Betting against +2 teams = loss of 1 unit

Not a good wager system

08-09
Betting with +2 teams = 1 unit gained

09-10
Betting with +2 team = 1 unit lossed

not a good method

Betting for and against the draw +2

Not profitable

betting the same method with +3 teams ---not profitable

the only thing that was profitable was when a +2 played a +1 team.

Taking the +1 team won 6 units....but the sample size was only 3 games or so.

the good thing about experiment was the answer to if this was a good idea to handicap games.

the bad was all the time and effort taken to come up with a failure of an idea......on to the next idea regarding handicapping soccer.