I give this parlay 40.3% chance of hitting

[statnerds]

2 Team Parlay




Pending7/15/10 8:00pm Brazil Soccer 352 Atletico ** (BRA-1) -127* vs Atletico Goianiense (BRA-1)




Pending7/16/10 2:45pm Rep Ireland Soccer 491 FC Bohemians (IRE-P) -124* vs Sligo Rovers (IRE-P)
now, if i think it should be paying 1.49/1 and it is actually paying 2.23/1, is it a good play?

[kboiler]

I'm going to need to get my calculator and get back to you on this.

[Wilforth]

2 Team Parlay




Pending7/15/10 8:00pm Brazil Soccer 352 Atletico ** (BRA-1) -127* vs Atletico Goianiense (BRA-1)




Pending7/16/10 2:45pm Rep Ireland Soccer 491 FC Bohemians (IRE-P) -124* vs Sligo Rovers (IRE-P)
now, if i think it should be paying 1.49/1 and it is actually paying 2.23/1, is it a good play?

BOL

[nicsbr]

gl at this

[statnerds]

thanks gents, crossing my fingers. not really.

and allow me to say holy shit man, 13K+ posts in 2 years

that is solid. way to put in work.

[secret007]

If you are 40% confident, do it !

[COOGI]

i will not do it . i wont risk my money on 40% hitting .........no way...money not paper

[Dirty Sanchez]

Sligo game will be low scoring....it's possible...best of luck

[statnerds]

i will not do it . i wont risk my money on 40% hitting .........no way...money not paper

this is what happens when a simple man like myself uses simple logic based on simple math. up front, i admit parlays are, for the most part, sucker bets. however, when i see a parlay i think has a 40% likelihood of hitting with odds that fail to reflect that properly, i will play the parlay. it is also important to look beyond this individual parlay. this will be the first in a series of parlays.

simple math of it

i think 40% chance to win

40% should pay 1.49.

so 100 parlays, 40 winners at 1.49 and 60 losers at 1.00 nets me a loss of .4 Units

however

this parlay pays 2.23.

100 parlays, 40 winners at 2.23 and 60 losers at 1.00 nets me a profit of 29.2 Units

either myself or the books have a seriously flawed model at the moment. probably me, but time shall tell. i say it has a 40% chance of winning, but the book has it at 28% chance. should say book is paying at about a 28% chance, meaning they have it at an even lower number than that.

[Ruifgalmeida]

I think you are given that parlay to much value, hope I am wrong GL