Would it really be a surprise if Uruguay qualified?

[phenomenon]

NO
not surprise... impossible is nothing.

[Boxster]

Uruguay is no surprise if they get to the Finals

[Karayilan9]

A strangely subjective -and wrong- analysis. One could just as easily say that Holland had to adjust to playing with last second replacement Ooijer in the first half against Brazil, and took care of business by totally outplaying Brazil in the second half. And they did not get an own goal. The goal was given to Sneijder. Do you think it's easy to make Brazil lose their heads?!

They couldn't create a chance against Brazil who were in cruise control, Brazil scored an own goal, a total fluke goal which rarely happen. After the own goal the team collapsed, part of the blame has to be Dunga who was acting like a maniac in the technical box having a negative influence on team moral.

However, before the own goal Holland was awful.

They don't really struggle that much against defensive teams. They just don't walk into the trap set by teams that sit back, but instead pass the ball around near midfield, making for a very boring game. Previous Dutch teams have not shown this kind of patience.

Against Japan they couldn't create a chance until the keeper parried in the Sneijder shot. Against Denmark they barely created a chance until the own goal.

They struggle more than Dutch teams of the past did with defensive teams because they are a more defensively orientated team themselves. With the 4-2-3-1 the wingers getting forward are important for the teams attack, Wiel will be missed in the game and Van Bronkhorst is a weak link.

Uruguay have switched to a 4-4-2, two organized banks of four are very hard to break down (if they stay in position and are organized), they are likely to play three defensive midfielders, also bringing in Walter Gargano. Holland are unlikely to deviate from how they play so there could be few chances for either side in this game.

Dutch are favorites but not such huge favorites.

[Dark Horse]

Dutch are favorites but not such huge favorites.

They play their games close. No blowouts from this version of Holland. But I disagree with your interpretation that they couldn't create chances. (So far, they've always scored at least one more goal than the opponent). They're just not forcing the issue against defensive teams, by pushing up more players. Instead, they patiently wait for their chances. Naturally, this results in fewer opportunities, but they do it because they don't want to reward those teams with free space for fast counter attacks.

The old Dutch teams would push forward and create chances. But somewhere down the line they would run into a game where they would pay for the inherent risk. This Orange team waits for chances, because it knows they will come. Meanwhile, the opponent can't do anything positive while Holland control the ball around midfield. It's a different philosophy, but it is in direct response to teams that dig in.

[Josu]

Surprise, it's a big word. But they won't. Netherlands will advance. Uruguay got lucky against Ghana. Their luck runs out today. And I'm not saying this because Netherlands won against Brazil, I've been on Netherlands to win the World Cup since before it started.

[lakerboy]

Netherlands -0.5 and -1 -116 @ pinnacle

-101 now

[brumbies]

What is vamos celeste?

[wrongturn]

great analysis from darkhorse and karayilan. i think i will take 0-0 and 1-0 holland.

[Wilforth]

I have a 0-0 draw for this game.

[Jimmy0607]

What is vamos celeste?

Lets go Sky BLue

[Socrates]

Surprise, it's a big word. But they won't. Netherlands will advance. Uruguay got lucky against Ghana. Their luck runs out today. And I'm not saying this because Netherlands won against Brazil, I've been on Netherlands to win the World Cup since before it started.

This.

[pavyracer]

Uruguay will not advance.

[juuso]

Would not be a big surprise. Uruguay is a solid team. Personally, I'm estimating Netherlands chance of winning this in regulation at slightly above 50%, and if it goes to OT, anything can happen.

Already booked Uruguay +0.75 +107 esterday, which seems to have dropped to -107 now.

[vanc]

No, but they would have to be playing realy well to have a chance.

[swiss88]

Would not be a big surprise. Uruguay is a solid team. Personally, I'm estimating Netherlands chance of winning this in regulation at slightly above 50%, and if it goes to OT, anything can happen.

Already booked Uruguay +0.75 +107 esterday, which seems to have dropped to -107 now.

I think exactly the same and played Uruguay to qualify as well, good luck