griffdog's Monday soccer picks

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  • griffdog
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-25-09
    • 424

    #1
    griffdog's Monday soccer picks
    Have been watching the World Cup more as a fan than a bettor so far (takes less than both hands to count the amount of bets I've made), and I like it that way. Would've jumped on the over 2.5 in the Argentina-Mexico game since I had a good feeling about it (and it was at some juicy odds) but ended up passing.

    These are more for fun than anything, but here are few plays that I like for Brazil-Chile:

    Brazil/Chile OVER 1 1st Half: It's at +116 at my book right now, and that's just too damn good to pass up. The lopsided numbers in their recent meetings are reason enough to jump on it, but past that, you can bet Brazil will try to exploit Chile's depleted back line from the outset, and I expect them to net at least one in the first half, if not more. I certainly don't see Chile sitting back and not coming forward, especially if Brazil score early. It could be fruitful, but it could also put them in position to be behind 2-0 or worse by halftime.

    Brazil/Chile OVER 2.5: I wouldn't be surprised if this hits in the first half. Tasty plus odds on this one too.

    Brazil -.5, -1 and -1, love those as well. Might spread a few bucks around on Brazil 3-0, 3-1, 4-1, 4-2, and 5-2. Brazil should score at least three, and Chile should net at least once, even if it's a cheap consolation strike.

    As it happens though, I'll actually have more invested in Swedish soccer tomorrow than the World Cup. I've been making some good money on the smaller leagues that have been in action while the tournament's been going on, and there's money to be made in Sweden tomorrow.

    Superettan - Jonkopings Sodra/Syrianska OVER 2.5: It's at -130 at my book right now, and that might be a little generous. There have been 21 goals in Jonkopings' six home matches and 23 in Syrianska's six away matches. Should hit easily 'knocks on wood'.

    Division 1 Norra - Umea/Boden OVER 3 & Umea -1: Don't have it up at my book right now, but I hope they will. At Pinnacle, the over 3 is at -121, with Umea -1 at -123. The total has been four or more in Umea's last six games, and there should be goals aplenty in tomorrow's match. Boden have allowed 16 goals in their last three away matches, and they've shipped in 27 in ten league matches this season. And as it happens, they're going up against the league's most prolific team in Umea, who have scored 24 goals in 10 league matches.

    Good luck all, let's make it a big money Monday!
  • psulions
    Restricted User
    • 01-03-10
    • 205

    #2
    like the Brazil/Chile over as well. GL
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    • Gandev
      SBR Sharp
      • 02-14-10
      • 394

      #3
      The swedish over sounds fine!
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      • griffdog
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-25-09
        • 424

        #4
        Thanks, let's hope they hit!

        Couple other tidbits to add - Jonkopings have allowed 10 goals in their last four matches, while Syrianska have allowed nine goals in their last four matches. Jonkopings are letting in an average of two goals per game (24 goals allowed in 12 league matches - worst in the league in goals allowed and goals allowed per game), and Syrianska aren't far better, having allowed 20 goals in 12 league matches.
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        • griffdog
          SBR Sharp
          • 11-25-09
          • 424

          #5
          Umea's currently thrashing Boden 5-1 in the second half, so that's a wrap. Sadly, my book didn't offer the game as I'd hoped...oh how I wish I could play at Pinnacle. Would've played the side and total for all I had.

          Need two second half goals for the Jonkopings one to hit. Got a goal right before half, so that was big.

          Adding Brazil team total OVER 1.5 to my list of plays for that game. That one could well be a winner in the first half if Brazil come out like I expect them to.
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          • iceminers26
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 10-13-08
            • 15600

            #6
            Griff, good luck with the Swedish total, hope they net a few in the 2H.

            As for Brazil/Chile I was thinking the exact same route except I was going to play the TT at O2 at a better price, but was leaning towards the TT and game overs all well. Only play I have made thus far on this one is the 1H over at O1 (105). I just I'm a little hesitant because it seems a little too easy based on past H2H results. I may just leave it at that one play on the 1H but I do agree with all your plays on that match, will be pulling for you cash all those plays.
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            • griffdog
              SBR Sharp
              • 11-25-09
              • 424

              #7
              Didn't hit on the Jonko total, but that turned out to be the only blemish.

              I ended up waiting until a few minutes before the Brazil game to finalize my plays, and instead of going with the over for the first half and the game, I took the calculated risk and just went all in on the Brazil over 1.5. Sometimes when it looks too good to be true, it is, and other times, it ends up being as cut and dry as we'd like every play to be.

              Hope you chased big Ice. Nice hit on Kvitova. Kicking myself for not taking her or Pironkova...Bartoli can't be trusted at this point in any Slam, but I've been proceeding with caution with tennis a lot lately. Real shame about Jelena costing you a win on the Vera bet...should've sucked it up and lost the right way instead of retiring. I'm sure her back's just killing her right now...ha!
              Comment
              • COOGI
                SBR MVP
                • 05-05-10
                • 1510

                #8
                good call on brazil team speacially the over first half ...
                Comment
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