Any chance Brazil doesn't win?

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  • BillyCostigan
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-18-09
    • 712

    #1
    Any chance Brazil doesn't win?
    Question for you you guys.

    How dumb would it be to bet $4,400 to win $400 on Brazil? Is there any chance they don't win this game today? Obviously a miracle could happen, but how big of a miracle would it take for a draw or NK win?
  • bruceBRUCEbruce
    SBR MVP
    • 06-20-09
    • 2560

    #2
    waaaaaayyyy too much to lay on first game, IMO. Korea will certainly be playing lots of D.
    Comment
    • UpsetSpecial09
      SBR MVP
      • 05-01-10
      • 1438

      #3
      Billy don't do it! There is no reason to put that much $$$ on any game with that much juice, its simply not worth the risk. A huge risk for a small payoff, the books love this kind of stuff because anything can happen! If you want to throw so $$$ away why not throw it on the draw, or take a shot a the total 1,0 or 2,0 Brasil. All three of those have decent chance at hitting and you can play them small for a chance at a decent payoff.

      Not sure of your purpose but if you do this for more than just fun and ever hope to make a profit you can't take plays like your talking about or you will lose you bankroll in a day!
      Comment
      • Mr Windy City
        Restricted User
        • 12-27-09
        • 5018

        #4
        MIRACLE to win this game. And I mean like end of the world type miracle. Draw possible I suppose, but pretty sure Brazil wins this match. Risking 4k to win 400 is not too smart but should be free money
        Comment
        • BillyCostigan
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-18-09
          • 712

          #5
          Thanks guys, never really said I was going to, I just wanted to gauge what real soccer people thought about NK's likeliness of tying or winning. I don't bet soccer much(up $430 and 2-0 so far, though!) so I wanted to see what you guys thought. I might just put $60 on a draw to win the same amount.
          Comment
          • sportscash
            Restricted User
            • 01-16-09
            • 2894

            #6
            $4400 = $484 at my book.You will probably be safe but i wont be doing it.Good luck
            Comment
            • bringdownthehous
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-14-10
              • 622

              #7
              this games makin me crazy haha..I got brazil -2.5 for 2 units right now but the more I think about it the less I like the bet I took

              These North Koreans are savages, it makes me worry because no one knows a thing about them, they are playing for their lives (literally ), Kim Jung Ill and other NK officials have basically guarenteed and victory and if the team does not deliver they will be working in mines for the rest of their lives

              Brazil will probobly win but I think it ends 1-0 or 2-0 because these NK will be playing harder than any team out there I can guarentee you that
              Comment
              • Josu
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-02-09
                • 842

                #8
                North Korea doesn't stand a chance. They can be secretive all they want, they're just not good enough to stand up against Brazil. Brazil shouldn't be so big favorites as the odds make them out to be, but they will win here.

                Just because Brazil aren't as great as they once were, doesn't mean they won't beat these guys.
                Comment
                • ROYAJA8
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-23-09
                  • 2069

                  #9
                  Brazil will win 4-0 just parley them with Spain n Lakers ml it's an easy winner
                  Comment
                  • lukahh
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-08-10
                    • 941

                    #10
                    it should be ok. if you play with 100k+, betting 4k on brazil should be ok. 12% return at Titan is best atm.
                    and of course - never parlay
                    Comment
                    • xxxvince
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-17-07
                      • 2567

                      #11
                      billy this is the only game in the world cup that you should go all in. just this once, cause no way in hell brazil gonna lose this game. they need goals after the first match in the group went on scoreless tie, brazil can only get points and goals from this dumb north korean team. this aint south korea with good players.. come on. have some ball go all in thank me later. if u wanna parlay, do it with the spain game tomorrow but brazil is a bigger lock than spain tom. HAVE SOME BALLS!
                      Comment
                      • fedtpels
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 01-08-10
                        • 407

                        #12
                        Brazil wins this easy! How can you even think of a draw. I'm not calling it a lock cause everything can happen, but come on now. Almost the entire team plays in the north korean league (didn't even know it existed) and one of their strikers was put as goalkeeper to get an extra man in the squad (didn't work - if the striker plays it's as GK). This team spells disaster and they will lose big!
                        Comment
                        • tommyminh
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 03-19-09
                          • 208

                          #13
                          yeah your guy right brazil will win but does brazil will score 3 and over or just only 2 points ?
                          Comment
                          • COOGI
                            SBR MVP
                            • 05-05-10
                            • 1510

                            #14
                            Originally posted by bringdownthehous
                            this games makin me crazy haha..I got brazil -2.5 for 2 units right now but the more I think about it the less I like the bet I took These North Koreans are savages, it makes me worry because no one knows a thing about them, they are playing for their lives (literally ), Kim Jung Ill and other NK officials have basically guarenteed and victory and if the team does not deliver they will be working in mines for the rest of their lives Brazil will probobly win but I think it ends 1-0 or 2-0 because these NK will be playing harder than any team out there I can guarentee you that

                            Kim Jung Ill and other NK officials have basically guarenteed and victory and if the team does not deliver they will be working in mines for the rest of their lives

                            not Just that only maybe Kim Jung Ill and other NK will Bring NUclear.. to bomb Brazil


                            Comment
                            • Igetp2s
                              SBR MVP
                              • 05-21-07
                              • 1046

                              #15
                              Korea is +5000 to win at Matchbook. Anyone taking it?
                              Comment
                              • Sawyer
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 06-01-09
                                • 7792

                                #16
                                I won't pick Korea even if it's +10000, LoL!
                                Comment
                                • WiseGrumpy
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-30-10
                                  • 3654

                                  #17
                                  Even if it was Brazil against school kids, nothing is worth such a bet, math-wise it's simply a BAD bet.
                                  Comment
                                  • Lakers714
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-17-09
                                    • 4671

                                    #18
                                    Do u guys think brazil wins by 3 goals?
                                    Comment
                                    • cro
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-16-09
                                      • 1088

                                      #19
                                      could be a draw
                                      but they wont lose
                                      Comment
                                      • Lakers714
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-17-09
                                        • 4671

                                        #20
                                        Cuz I'm trying to decide wether to take the over 3 or the spread of 2.5 that my local offers me
                                        Comment
                                        • Hybris
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 07-22-09
                                          • 1023

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by ROYAJA8
                                          Brazil will win 4-0 just parley them with Spain n Lakers ml it's an easy winner
                                          Parlaying a -EV bet dont make it +EV
                                          Comment
                                          • COOGI
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 05-05-10
                                            • 1510

                                            #22
                                            this game ways to hard to bet............and i learnt if it hard and u still want to play follow the fact that under dog win more than favors....so stick with the under dog.....and under
                                            Comment
                                            • TheAccountant
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 11-03-09
                                              • 658

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by WiseGrumpy
                                              Even if it was Brazil against school kids, nothing is worth such a bet, math-wise it's simply a BAD bet.
                                              I would take it Brazil against school kids!!

                                              WC Soccer is too unpredictable to take Brazil as such a big favorite though - can't really know teams until you see them - and even horribly one sided match ups can wind up draws..

                                              That being said - I don't know if there is a decent play no matter what you bet on this game..nobody knows nething about NK..
                                              Comment
                                              • magynuck
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 09-17-09
                                                • 891

                                                #24
                                                taking the goals
                                                Comment
                                                • stc9357
                                                  Restricted User
                                                  • 04-18-10
                                                  • 2005

                                                  #25
                                                  Taking NK not to score a goal don't want to touch the totals.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • sweethook
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-21-07
                                                    • 12667

                                                    #26
                                                    i see good value in the draw - 6 of 13 games have been draws, GL.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • hels
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-12-09
                                                      • 8767

                                                      #27
                                                      You decide

                                                      Brazil:
                                                      -has superior players
                                                      -has superior coaching
                                                      -has superior training methods
                                                      -plays more creatively
                                                      -play a more individual style
                                                      -will not be as prepared -- How do you prepare against NK??
                                                      -will be over-confident
                                                      -focus more on the offensive side of the game

                                                      NK
                                                      -will believe they are the greatest in the world (brainwashing does this to you)
                                                      -will play a compact style
                                                      -focus on a team game and work as 1
                                                      -focus on the defensive end
                                                      -will wear their hearts on their shoulder
                                                      -will try to scare or create fear in Brazilian players with very aggressive challenges
                                                      -will play the full 90 minutes as hard as possible no matter what the score
                                                      Comment
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