SoV's World Cup discussion thread

[SoV]

I have been posting around on different pages and thought of having my own thread to keep it all together (and hopefully earn some points ). People can go through my post history and see how my predictions have gone. I only go for plays that I feel very strongly about. Play my weak leans with SBR points.

I would like to welcome everyone with an interest in football/soccer to join in the discussion.

Hopefully, this thread doesn't fail.

[Goat Milk]

[SoV]

[shari91]

Woohoo SoV!!

[SoV]

Shari

I will come back later and put up the games and my predictions later.

[SoV]

First game:



Players to watch- Martin Skrtel, Miroslav Stoch, Marek Hamsik, Stenislav Sestek (Slovkia) & Ryan Nelsen (NZ)

Slovakia:

- 7 of their last 9 games have featured 2 goals or less (78%)
- Before the win over Costa Rica, the only team Slovakia have scored more than twice against in their last 30 games was San Marino (93%)
- Just 5 of their last 21 goals have been in the last 30 minutes of their matches (76%)

New Zealand:

- The All Whites have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 games against opponents from outside Asia and Oceania (70%)
- 6 of their last 8 games have featured fewer than three goals (75%)
- Just 2 of their last 11 goals have been in the second half of matches (82%)

I will be backing:

- Slovakia 1-0 @ 11/2 with BlueSQ (money back if 0-0)
- Slovakia 2-0 @ 11/2 with Bet365 (money back if 0-0)
- Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (various - brilliant price IMO, given the price of unders so far this tournement)

Essentially the correct score bets are a 7/4 shot, representing a 36% chance, making it 34% value.
Unders is a 55% chance, making it 20% value.

Given the final stat for each side, it's worth noting that PaddyPower are offering Evens that the final goal happens before the 74th minute (you could probably get about 8/11 at this point in-running).

[bobbyhazell]

Hello SOV, how's it going? Still think we can win it? How's the betting going? I find a bit of live betting at Betfair is brilliant. So much easier to get a good read after 5-10 mins of a game compared to all the 'on paper' discussions pre match. My only losers so far are thanks to the Algerian "keeper" (if we can call him that) and that glorious Danish own goal.

Looking forward to the thread.

[SoV]

Not too bad of a start for us. Could and should have won the game. Heskey was wasteful in the second half. However, problems all over the pitch for us. King seems to be ruled out and Carragher looked very slow the other day. Lampard and Lennon hardly comtributed and Milner was awful. Rooney was anonymous too. Hoping that Capello makes some changes, especially in the goalkeeping department and we improve. Would like to see the level at which the Brazilians today to have a proper perspective on how well we did.

As for betting, got burned by England but made that money back with Germany. Made a lot of money on the Dutch yesterday, since I had them at -1. Also had Honda as MotM in the Japan game, which came in as well. Looking to keep this run going.

Good luck.

[LostBankroll]

Hesky is a big muthafuka! I was AMAZED when Howard saved his shot. Like the Slovakia/New Zealand Under too.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

What's your opinion on the assuredly ubiquitous Brazil(-2.5) wager?

I'm not well informed in regards to soccer, so I'm making a minor play on it; seeming to be the "best" bet tomorrow in terms of probability.

?

[SoV]

Portugal vs. Ivory Coast

With injury to Didier Drogba, it's easy to assume that Portugal will roll-over the Ivory Coast. However, the Ivory Coast still have major stars lining up for them including Kolo Touré (Man City), Yaya Touré (Barcelona), Emmanuel Eboué (Arsenal), Didier Zokora (Tottenham), Salomon Kalou (Chelsea). Coached by former England manager, Sven Göran Eriksson, the Ivory Coast team should not be considered underdogs in this game. They will build from a solid defence and will look to cause Portugal problems on the counter-attack.

Portugal are coached by former Real Madrid manager, Carlos Queiroz who also enjoyed a stint as Alex Ferguson's right hand man at Manchester United. At his disposal he has one of the best footballers in the world in Cristiano Ronaldo, who will be looking to drag Portugal through to the second round. Other notable players include Ricardo Carvalho, Deco, Paulo Ferreira, Simao and Pepe. Strong at the back, Portugal lack the fire-power up-front.

Friendly games:

Ivory Coast 2:0 Japan

Paraguay 2:2 Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast 0:2 South Korea


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Portugal 3-0 Mozambique
Portugal 3-1 Cameroon
Portugal 0-0 Cape Verde
Portugal 2-0 China

[SoV]

What's your opinion on the assuredly ubiquitous Brazil(-2.5) wager? I'm not well informed in regards to soccer, so I'm making a minor play on it; seeming to be the "best" bet tomorrow in terms of probability. ?

I will wait to see the Brazilian team before I wager on that. There are two other games before it, with Slovakia-NZ game being the more easier to call.

[Goat Milk]

Drogba is playing.

I like Portugal if anything in this match, maybe draw.

[SoV]

Not confirmed whether Drogba will be playing. He has asked to play with a cast and FIFA will be taking a decision on that.

Commenting on Drogba's injury yesterday, Ivory Coast manager Sven-Goran Eriksson said: "I hope he can play tomorrow, but I am not sure about it. There has been a Fifa meeting today and the people haven't come back yet. We will know later.

"Probably we will take the decision if he will start the game or not start a couple of hours beforehand.

"He had a very good practice session yesterday with all the other players and he will do the same today, and hopefully he will be OK. But I don't know. The one who can tomorrow say yes or no is himself.

"Tomorrow is eight days since he broke his arm and it is a short time, but we think he will take part in the tournament - and we haven't called in any other players, so that says everything."

[Goat Milk]

SOV Seems like Eriksson is just wiggling his way around the issue. He hinted several times in there that Drogba would play just didn't come out and say it directly. I think Christiano is gonna impose his will tomorrow, I think Toure can neutralize Deco for the most part though. Ronaldo.will get lots of chances.

[SoV]

I am also open to wagering points with a member on bets.

[SoV]

SOV Seems like Eriksson is just wiggling his way around the issue. He hinted several times in there that Drogba would play just didn't come out and say it directly. I think Christiano is gonna impose his will tomorrow, I think Toure can neutralize Deco for the most part though. Ronaldo.will get lots of chances.

Portugal's hopes depend on Ronaldo. If he fires, they might win. However, Ivory Coast have Eboue and Yaya Toure to neutralize Ronaldo. Deco is getting old now and it remains to be seen what impact he might have.

As for Drogba playing, FIFA is going to decide on that since he will be wearing a cast. If Drogba starts, I will be leaning towards the Ivory Coast.

[Goat Milk]

SOV even if Drogba plays he will be a step slower with that cast. Deco's time is running out and I think he'll be solid all world cup, he wants this badly it's his last shot. Portugal has some solid reserves they can come in with too. You can't really neutralize Ronaldo. If he's on his game, Ivory Coast is fukked.

Maybe I'll stay away from this one, still like the draw possibly.

So SOV is your play on Slovakia? I think both Portugal and Ivory will be very solid defensively but that doesn't mean this game can't go over. If Ronaldo is on his game which I expect him to be I think Portugal will score 2 goals and Ivory will convert on set pieces I think.

What is your opinion?

[MauriceDuval]

SoV !

I was waiting for you opening your own thread !

I like your plays on Slovakia.
I am leaning Ivory Coast on the second game. Portugal was awful all this last year. Ivory Coast got a great team with a great WC-coach ...
Kalou, Eboue, Toure x2 (lol) will make the difference.
I also love the over 2,5 in that game !

Check my thread for my plays ! I am expecting you to comment them !

BOL bro !

[Squirrel]

I like the Slovakia play - the other 2 games today i'm finding difficult to find any inspiration for. The Ivory Coast/Portugal game is tough to call and alot depends on if Drogba is allowed to play, the Brazil/North Korea game says a big blowout but it depends how many Brazil want I guess, they may settle for 1-2 goals rather than rick pissing the Koreans off and have them start hacking at players if they run up the score.

Good luck pally

[Goat Milk]

Brazil scores in both halves -173
Brazil wins both halves -182

what do you think of eating the juice on one of these sov?

I like Brazil 2-0 +430.

[bobbyhazell]

I'd highly recommend waiting to bet live if you're keen for action on IC - Portugal, get a read on Drogba, IC's energy levels,attacking intent and defensive shape. And check out their gameplan for Ronaldo and also his body language and demenour.

[Tommy_de1st]

Nice to see you opend your own thread.
Don't count on points from me thou , Im not tailing

Gl with you plays. Good choices

[BetfairUser]

Good luck SoV Think NZ will score today? I really like the look of 1.89 for a Slovakia clean sheet

[Tommy_de1st]

First game:



I will be backing:

- Slovakia 1-0 @ 11/2 with BlueSQ (money back if 0-0)
- Slovakia 2-0 @ 11/2 with Bet365 (money back if 0-0)
- Under 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (various - brilliant price IMO, given the price of unders so far this tournement)

How come that you have your money back when it's 0-0? Is it kinda special offer?

[subs]

hi SOV and every1 else.

official: drogba can PLAY - thats gonna hurt man

[subs]

yes tommy 1 time special offer - with a max return

[SoV]

How come that you have your money back when it's 0-0? Is it kinda special offer?

Yessir.

[SoV]

I will get back to everyone one question personally in a bit. Hope you don't mind, since I'm concentrating on the first game. Will discuss the Ivory Coast-Portugal game once this starts.

The more I'm looking at the Slovakia-New Zealand game, the less I'm liking the -1 bet. Maybe I'm thinking too much but New Zealand will want to keep it very tight and I don't see a blowout. Liking the Under more than -1, since I feel Slovakia might sneak a win.

[SoV]

Good luck SoV Think NZ will score today? I really like the look of 1.89 for a Slovakia clean sheet

I really like that as well. Might put a bit on that.

[SoV]

Slovakia -1 (1x)

Good luck to everyone. Let's win some moneyyyy!!!

[phenomenon]

GL to u brother

[bobbyhazell]

Couldn't resist 0.2x LIVE on NZ at +640

EDIT - Had to lay it back because I found out a mate is big on Slovakia!

[SoV]

Thinking of putting 2x on Slovakia. Very glad the half finished at 0-0 since I'll get some good odds for that.

EDIT: Slovakia ML (2x)

Heading to the gym now. Hopefully, Slovakia score atleast 2 in this half and don't concede.

[SoV]

****ing hell! 90th minute equalizer. Cunts!