Monday Night "Futbol"

[icemantbi]

Haven't had a chance to post my soccer plays the last few days, but I've got a real juicy play for tomorrow:

Reading
Arsenal -1

I screwed up with my last Arsenal play against Prague, but that was a game with a depleted Arsenal lineup playing in very cold conditions in Prague. Now we have Man United winning rather easily against a decent Blackburn team today to put them at the top of the Premiership, so Arsenal needs a win to stay toe to toe with them. Add to that a nice rested squad will take to the pitch tomorrow against a reading squad that can't even come close to matching the skill of the Arsenal squad. -1 is a gift, plain and simple. I'm probably going to take them at -1.5, because they are also going to want to win the game by at least 2, to stay even on Goal Differential and Arsene Wenger will want to make that statement.
PICK: Arsenal -1 (-1 and -1.5 for added value)

[cwsulzba]

I went in on you with this and put 2000 down on Arsenal -1. I probabbly would not have done it if I had not read your post. Thanks pal.

[icemantbi]

I also layed a dime on this game and was an easy cash. There was simply no way that I could see how Arsenal would lose tonight. Glad we both cashed!

I'm starting to find that soccer is the easiest sport to beat the books at. I've got more success with soccer than any north american pro sport so far. Here's my opinions and reasoning behind this:

1. No salary cap, players are bought and sold, so no parity whatsoever. Reading, for example, simply doesn't have the skill level of Arsenal to compete. I mean, I know there are no locks, but was there any way Arsenal would lose this game? In american pro sports, with salary caps and everything, there is alot more parity, hence more upsets occur.

2. Beacause of promotion/relegation systems, there are alot of bad teams playing alot of good teams. Derby in the EPL, for example, shouldn't even be in the top tier of english soccer. This makes it easier to cap, just bet the top teams against the bad teams. (make sure of starting eleven, however)

3. To win the championship in any given league, you have to finish first. This means even the best teams can't afford to take a day off so as not to drop any points. Man United and Arsenal, battling for top spot in the EPL, will play hard every single EPL game. Unlike NA pro sports, where you just have to come top 8 or whatever to make the playoffs, teams tend to take more games off and simply float.

4. Lots of leagues, especially lower tier leagues, where linemakers may make more errors to the line, which you can take advantage of. How many, for example, would bet on lower mexican leagues, for example? I think linesmakers can make mistakes.

[cwsulzba]

I agree with you one hundred percent.

As far as today goes that goal before half was huge because it meant that Reading could not try to go for the tie and the point. It reall opened it up and allowed for the more talented Arsenal players to create.

P.S. Soccer is FUN to bet on.