[DiamondJack]

Hungary v France
Hungary imploded late vs Portugal in their last game but looked really good for most of the game. France took out Germany and now there is no pressure having 3 points in the bag. The ONLY home advantage at this tournament has been in Budapest where we will see another packed house 95% will be pro Hungary. Useless stat alert--- the past 4 head to head have gone over 2.5. France are too good to lose here, but Hungary will battle. I see a 2-1 result so;
44. Hungary/France OVER 2.5 @ 1.98/-102 (1u) Pinnacle
45. Hungary +1.5 @ 1.94/-106 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Germany v Portugal
Germany looked poor versus France & it took a long time for Portugal to shine & pick up 3 points versus Hungary. Portugal is faster & have more attacking threats then Germany. Germany are at home in Munich but that does really matter in front of a few thousand fans?. Having 3 points in their pocket Portugal will be much more loose ready to pounce on any German mistake which will come as the German defence pretty much sucks. This game can go either way so only Portugal offer value;
46. Portugal +0.25 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Poland v Spain
Poland's manager Paulo Sausa has no ideas, the guy is clueless. I have no idea what the Polish FA was thinking hiring this guy who has never achieved anything aside from playing with Figo & Costa. Poland's defence was exposed by Slovakia and will be suspect again. Prior to the tournament I told myself I'm taking the over with all of Poland's & Belgium games & of course I did not, I do not see too much value in that today. Spain will as usual pass themselves to death and maybe they might put in a pass or two into Poland's net as they have no one that can score.
Spain -1.5 @ 2.10/+110 (2u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Italy V Wales
The last group stage game for both sides who have already qualified. Italy have won their past 10 games all of them to nil. They are chasing history and even with players being rested should beat up on Wales with ease. The Italian subs are light years better than Wales who are also expected to rest players. Two plays for me riding the Italian win to nil trend.
48. Italy win to nil @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet265
49. Italy -1 @ 2.02/+102 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Turkey v Switzerland
The battle for 3rd place is a scenario where a draw means nothing to either side so expect an attacking style from both sides. I cant see Turkey exiting the tournament without at least scoring a goal. The last game of the group stages tends to lean to the over with teams playing with nothing to lose. The game will be in Baku so expect Turkey support. I wont back a side but I'm backing the over big;
50. Turkey/Switzerland OVER 2.5 @ 1.75/-133 (3u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Updated Record to pick 50#
23-25-2 +5.73 Units

[DiamondJack]

Austria v Ukraine
The battle for second place or perhaps to avoid second place. With a draw both sides are basically guaranteed to advance and the odds reflect that with the draw set at -110. The 2nd place in this group gets a date with Italy & maybe Belgium in the quarters, where as 3rd spot gets you the winner of Group E or the group of death winner. There is a method of playing these odds where the Draw is minus money. Bet on either side to win outright & in game when one side goes down a goal you bet the draw.
51. BTTS YES @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

North Macedonia v Netherlands
Here we have a situation where North Macedonia are already eliminated, and The Netherlands have top spot basically wrapped up. The Dutch will no doubt rest some banged up players. I see an open game with plenty of goals there is no pressure on either side. North Macedonia have scored in both their opening games and both of those games had 3+ goals. The Netherlands have scored 5 in their first 2 & I expect at least a couple in this game regardless on who starts.
52. Netherlands/North Macedonia OVER 3 @ 1.89/-112 (1u) Bet365

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Austria v Ukraine
The battle for second place or perhaps to avoid second place. With a draw both sides are basically guaranteed to advance and the odds reflect that with the draw set at -110. The 2nd place in this group gets a date with Italy & maybe Belgium in the quarters, where as 3rd spot gets you the winner of Group E or the group of death winner. There is a method of playing these odds where the Draw is minus money. Bet on either side to win outright & in game when one side goes down a goal you bet the draw.
51. BTTS YES @ 2.25/+125 (1u) Bet365

Do you agree w/ the mkt odds that FAVOR THE DRAW?

Guess I don't get it. I know the 3rd place math gets tricky.

I just don't see why it won't be an honest game.

Also, would u say that Switz is 100% thru with 4 pts?

[DiamondJack]

Denmark v Russia
Denmark need the win here and they need to win by 2 or more to go through. It has been a very emotional tournament for the Danes & I think they were very unlucky not to get anything out of the Belgium game even though they played very well. Russia labored through their game vs Finland and were fortunate to pick up 3 points. I already have too many futures invested in Denmark otherwise I would have put more on backing them.
53. Denmark -1.5 @ 3.10/+210 (2u) Marathon

[DiamondJack]

Belgium v Finland
There is no value backing Belgium at these prices considering some players might not feature. The Fins will want to nab a point here to ensure progress into the next round but that will not happen Belgium are just too good. Interestingly enough Belgium are actually winless versus Finland in their past 7 meetings. Finland wins 4 and ties 3 . I am backing the over with Belgium as always;
54. Belgium/Finland OVER 2.5 @ 2.02/+102 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

I think 4 points gets you through

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think 4 points gets you through

Thx. Great call on Denmark.

What a tournament for the Danes. Impossible situation, would like to see them keep going.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Belgium v Finland
There is no value backing Belgium at these prices considering some players might not feature. The Fins will want to nab a point here to ensure progress into the next round but that will not happen Belgium are just too good. Interestingly enough Belgium are actually winless versus Finland in their past 7 meetings. Finland wins 4 and ties 3 . I am backing the over with Belgium as always;
54. Belgium/Finland OVER 2.5 @ 2.02/+102 (1u) Bet365

That's a crazy Belg/Fin stat. Must go back many years, well into the Litmanen/Hyppia days.

[DiamondJack]

Croatia v Scotland
I already have a future on Scotland to qualify so I will not be backing a side in this match. Croatia has been poor and especially away from home. The game is in Scotland and I expect a change of tactics from both sides because a draw is useless to both teams. I'm expecting an open type of game a 2-1 scoreline for the Scots would suit me very well.
55. Scotland/Croatia OVER 2.5 @ 1.88/-113 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

England v Czech Rep.
Both sides have basically qualified for the next round with 4 points in the bag, so I expect some lineup changes. England are the clear favourite although they have struggled to score with only 1 goal in the tournament. In the back England has been solid winning their past 8 games, 7 of which were wins to nil. Kane has been struggling. The winner of this group gets the second place team from the group of death, perhaps that could play a factor. I will be sticking with the trends;
56. England win to Nil @ 2.43/+143 (1U) Unibet

[DiamondJack]

Updated record after pick #56
26-27-3 +10.36 Units

[ChuckyTheGoat]

England v Czech Rep.
Both sides have basically qualified for the next round with 4 points in the bag, so I expect some lineup changes. England are the clear favourite although they have struggled to score with only 1 goal in the tournament. In the back England has been solid winning their past 8 games, 7 of which were wins to nil. Kane has been struggling. The winner of this group gets the second place team from the group of death, perhaps that could play a factor. I will be sticking with the trends;
56. England win to Nil @ 2.43/+143 (1U) Unibet

Great call. Perfect.

[DiamondJack]

Thanks Chucky---

[DiamondJack]

Slovakia v Spain
Slovakia have only score 7 goals in their past 8 games. Spain have only managed to score 1 goal in this tournament. Slovakia need a point to advance and most likely will play with 3 CB & "park the bus". Will that strategy work? most likely not. Once again I ask who is going to score for Spain?. Will Torres start? Spain get Busquets back that will help but not in attack. I looked at the odds and tried to find value in HT/FT nope, Win to Nil nope, ML & AH nope. One almost wants to back the Slovaks at +2. I did find a prop I really like when it comes to frustrating game play.
57. Spain/Slovakia Total Cards OVER 2.5 @ 1.78/-128 (2u)

[DiamondJack]

Poland v Sweden
Sweden just need a single point to advance into the next round. The Swedes have only scored one goal on a PK versus Slovakia. Sweden play a 4-4-2 gouge your eyes out style with old man Berg trying to score. Krychowiak is back for Poland after his suspension which should be a plus. Poland has scored in 13 of their past 14 games only Italy managed to shut them down. Strangely enough if Spain draw their match & Poland wins they become the group winner. Poland is poor at the back so I see a 2-1 scoreline for Poland.
58. Poland/Sweden OVER 2.5 @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
59. Poland ML @ 2.61/+161 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

Germany v Hungary
The lines in this match are a perfect example o recency bias. Germany come back from being a goal down and beat Portugal playing one good half out of four. I'm not sold on the fact that Germany are 100%. In the last 15 games for Germany only 5 games were won by 2 goals and Germany only kept 3 clean sheets. In the past 13 games for Hungary only once did they lose by 2 or more goals and that was recently to Portugal. Everything points to goals here but that also is overpriced;
60. Hungary/Germany BTTS Yes @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
61. Hungary +2.25 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Pinnacle

[DiamondJack]

France v Portugal
These sides just met in the nations league with France winning 1-0. The last 4 games between these sides have not had more than 1 goal scored so I'm staying away from the total. I also make it a rule not to bet unders in the last game of the group stages. Portugal had to win it late versus Hungary and were undone by the Germans. France are the best team on paper in this tournament full of quality and you are giving me plus money on the ML?.
62. France ML @ 2.19/+119 (1u) Marathon

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Jack, wanted to acknowledge your effort in here. Win or lose, you're doing good work.

[Hoopball328]

Agree, thanks for your input in all this, Jack. Tailed your Germany - Hungary bets today too

[DiamondJack]

Updated Record after the group stages
30-29-3 +13.76 Units

[DiamondJack]

Thanks guys
Chucky---
Hoop---

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16 - Wales v Denmark
I have Denmark advancing all the way to the semis and they do have a decent chance looking at their bracket.Wales fans will not be allowed in Holland due to covid restrictions so expect a pro Denmark Crowd. The Danes won the last 2 meetings 2-1 away and 2-0 at home in the Nations league. Ampadu is suspended for Wales. The knock our rounds favour the under however there is no value in that here. I see 2-0 Denmark
63. Denmark ML @ 1.88/-114 (2u) Unibet

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16- Italy v Austria
I was surprised to see the odds being around -190 for Italy on the ML. I was expecting -400. Italy come into the match 11 straight wins all of them to nil.Austria were lucky to beat Macedonia Lost to Holland 2-0 & beat out a Ukrainian side that seemed lost. There have been no recent meetings between the two sides. Italy was able to rest players versus Wales & they also have a day extra of rest over Austria. Italy wins 3-0.
64. Italy win to nil @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
65. Italy -1 @ 1.90/-111 (2u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16- Netherlands vs Czech Rep.
This match is being played in Budapest a very short drive from the Czech Republic. This is the first game the Netherlands are playing away from Amsterdam so expect home advantage to shift away from the Oranje. The Dutch won all their group games versus really bad teams, The Czechs are the surprise team so far but I can't trust them either . I see this game akin to Croatia Vs Czech republic 1-1. The game goes into extra time, perhaps Pk's. All of the Czech games went under the number so I also like the under at evens;
66. Netherlands/Czech Rep. to DRAW @ 3.95/+295 (1u) Pinnacle
67. Netherlands/Czech Rep. UNDER 2.5 @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Marathon

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16 - Belgium v Portugal
This is the only game in the round of 16 where I'm thinking goals. The last 25 games for both sides have gone over 2.5 that is 64%. In the group stages 2/3 for Belgium & 3/3 for Portugal ended over. Belgium has an ageing back line & a lethal attack, where as Portugal has Ronaldo. I have a feeling that these prices might not be available at kickoff so jumping on them early. I might add a player prop later.
68. Portugal/Belgium OVER 2.5 @ 2.20/+120 (2u) Marathon
69. Portugal/Belgium BTTS YES @ 1.87/-115 (1u) Marathon

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16- Italy v Austria
I was surprised to see the odds being around -190 for Italy on the ML. I was expecting -400. Italy come into the match 11 straight wins all of them to nil.Austria were lucky to beat Macedonia Lost to Holland 2-0 & beat out a Ukrainian side that seemed lost. There have been no recent meetings between the two sides. Italy was able to rest players versus Wales & they also have a day extra of rest over Austria. Italy wins 3-0.
64. Italy win to nil @ 2.20/+120 (1u) Bet365
65. Italy -1 @ 1.90/-111 (2u) Bet365

ADDING
70. Italy -2 (Corners) @ 2.37/+137 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16- Croatia v Spain
Get ready to gauge your eyes out with an epic pass fest courtesy of these two sides. I'm not backing either team as I think both are overrated by the books. 3 of the past 5 for Spain went Under & 4 of the past 5 for Croatia went under. I think this has the potential to go 0-0 into PK's. With Perisic out due to Covid & Ferran Torres perhaps set to start I am leaning slightly on Span;
71. Spain/Croatia UNDER 2.5 @ 1.85/-117 (2u) Pinnacle
72. PK in match YES @ 2.62/+162 (1u) Bet365
73. Game decided after PK's @ 7.00/+600 (1/2 u) Bet365
74. Ferran Torres Anytime GS @ 3.00/+200 (1/2 u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Round of 16- France v Switzerland
Being one of the favourites going into the tournament the French have not really impressed with their past 2 games being draws with Hungary & Portugal. The French have also been hit by injuries with Dembele out for good. Digne, Thuram & Kounde also out injured. The Swiss have only lost once in their past 10 games and that to Italy when they decided to line up in an attacking formation. I don't expect that from them today. The last 5 head to head encounters France wins once and 4 draws 3 of which were 0-0 so;
75. France/Switzerland UNDER 2.25 @ 2.00/+100 (3u) Bet365
76. France/Switzerland to DRAW @ 3.88/+288 (1u) Marathon

[DiamondJack]

Took a beat down today
Updated Record
34-39-3 +5.43 Units