World Cup thoughts....as a forum let's hear some views

[Smogs]

I know the World Cup is still 2 months away but since i haven't been betting for over a week i thought i'd turn some attention to how we are all going to make money off the greatest competition in world football.

I was thinking we should have threads for each matchup, and we all pool our thoughts together, rather than all betting in our particular sub threads and hoping for comments and opinion.

I honestly believe we can make a killing as a forum. It will take a bit of work, i for one do not want to see posts that say, 'England win' and that be it. We need proper thoughts and insight. If we as a forum cannot make money on WC games, we are all doomed

Thoughts? (If 'shut the f*ck up smogs' comes to mind, fair enough)

[Wilforth]

I'd also like to add these:

1) Let's make a list of those teams that are very likely going to make the 2nd round:
Spain
Brazil
Germany
Argentina
England
Netherlands
Italy

You can add to that list depending on your criteria.

2) Like it or not, not all of those listed nations will win their 1st group game. There'll be surprise draws/losses.
3) Any of those in that list that fails to win their 1st game is an auto play in the next game!

[Smogs]

Good shout wil - that auto bet would be a massive play.

We should also look at 'Tournament Top Goalscorer' and other prop bets

[Shark79]

I like this idea, as you say Smogs ... let your pick have reasoning.

And I second Wil's list for those to advance to the next round. If well executed, we should have some good plays before the WC begins.

[JOHON8]

I think we should also make a list of the upsets that occur in the group stages. If a team is running well at the start we should all pick this up and figure out if it's worth betting on them to beat a favorite in the next round.

[looch10]

messi, higgy, tevez, kun, lisandro lopez, milito, lavezzi...

i know not all these strikers can go, and maradona is very likely to include palermo .. but still, look at those form goalscorers to choose from! doesnt make sense!

[Wilforth]

I think we should also make a list of the upsets that occur in the group stages. If a team is running well at the start we should all pick this up and figure out if it's worth betting on them to beat a favorite in the next round.

Definitely! That means looking out either for the most underrated dogs or looking to fade the most overrated favorites. I have a few I'm looking into already:

1) Uruguay ML to beat an indifferent France.
2) If Slovenia are a dog against the USA, Slovenia ML will be an auto play for me.
3) Serbia have the potential to upset Germany, but we'll look more into that.

[Tommy_de1st]

Not everyone know whos in the group with whom etc.
Maybe someone can put that info to the thread, it`d be much easier

[Smogs]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/8383755.stm

Tried to post them all but can't get a snapshot of them out properly

[Smogs]

Group A
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
South Africa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mexico 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Uruguay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
France 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group B
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Argentina 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Korea Republic 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Greece 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group C
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
England 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
USA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Algeria 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovenia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group D
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Germany 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Australia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Serbia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ghana 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group E
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Netherlands 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Denmark 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Japan 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Cameroon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group F
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Italy 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Paraguay 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
New Zealand 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Slovakia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group G
Team MP W D L GF GA Pts
Brazil 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Korea DPR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Côte d'Ivoire 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Portugal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Group H
Team MP W D L GF GA Points
Spain 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Switzerland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Honduras 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chile 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

[Wilforth]

June 11: These look good:
Uruguay/France draw (1H)
Uruguay/France UNDER 2.5

[Smogs]

Automatically, i look to South Africa not winning a single group game BUT, drawing at least 2 - making some tasty profit. Also, Denmark i fully expect to do some good things

[Smogs]

June 11: These look good:
Uruguay/France draw (1H)
Uruguay/France UNDER 2.5

Totally agree, and i also like Ivory Coast to beat Portugal (15/8), like it a lot in fact

[swaindexter]

Totally agree, and i also like Ivory Coast to beat Portugal (15/8), like it a lot in fact

Like it a ton...Good Luck.....

[JOHON8]

Definitely! That means looking out either for the most underrated dogs or looking to fade the most overrated favorites. I have a few I'm looking into already:

1) Uruguay ML to beat an indifferent France.
2) If Slovenia are a dog against the USA, Slovenia ML will be an auto play for me.
3) Serbia have the potential to upset Germany, but we'll look more into that.

I'd also say those are so far the top underdogs.

By the way I really think Ivory Coast is kind of overrated by people. They do have Drogba and a dangerous team, but remember they got knocked out of the African Cup of Nations thanks to their defense. I'd expect any descent side to strategically outplay them.

[Smogs]

I'd expect any descent side to strategically outplay them.

That's why i think Portugal will struggle against them, i think they will fail to gel as a team and they don't convince me

I'm expecting a bit of a new manager syndrome as well with Sven

[JRLM8]

Fade the team that threatens to strike a month before the tournament.

Every World Cup there is one country that has a labor dispute in the lead up to the World Cup over the wages the players receive. In 2006, Togo's players threatened to strike and they only scored one goal in Germany. Three losses. Nigeria did it in 2002. They managed one point in their three games. (They were in the group of death that year, but it still applied.)

[lakerboy]

Bet under on every match in the first set of matches.


Of the 16 opening matches i already figure 10 will go under.

[Jimmy0607]

Definitely! That means looking out either for the most underrated dogs or looking to fade the most overrated favorites. I have a few I'm looking into already: 1) Uruguay ML to beat an indifferent France. 2) If Slovenia are a dog against the USA, Slovenia ML will be an auto play for me. 3) Serbia have the potential to upset Germany, but we'll look more into that.

I like all three

[xGrr]

its too early to make calls yet because rosters are not out and dont forget the weather is a huge factor.

[Wilforth]

I'd also say those are so far the top underdogs.

By the way I really think Ivory Coast is kind of overrated by people. They do have Drogba and a dangerous team, but remember they got knocked out of the African Cup of Nations thanks to their defense. I'd expect any descent side to strategically outplay them.

[suckerforparlays]

SOUTH KOREA the SLEEPER

[tailmypicks]

perfect setup for argentina win, poor qualifying campaign so they are not everyone's favourite
so no pressure
have the best player who has won everything else and needs the worldcup to complete his collection.
have a legend as their manager who needs a worldcup as a manager to silence his critics
plus the supporting cast is not bad either

[Wilforth]

perfect setup for argentina win, poor qualifying campaign so they are not everyone's favourite
so no pressure
have the best player who has won everything else and needs the worldcup to complete his collection.
have a legend as their manager who needs a worldcup as a manager to silence his critics
plus the supporting cast is not bad either

[demize21]

Brazil WC champions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[stomptheboard]

argentina v brazil final is what i wanna see

[MendozaLine]

Im taking the Over in every game Argentina plays. I dont see anyone stopping Messi and Tevez

[Salmon Steak]

I like the Netherlands this year, but Germany has the easiest road IMO.

[Tommy_de1st]

Have in mind the the World Cup opener is usualy a suprise

[Jimmy0607]

Germany the easiest road? I think they have the hardest

[shantymoon]

with torres and villa fit, spain should be in the finals

[Goat Milk]

Brazil WC champions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guarantee Brazil won't make it passed the third round.

Realistically, England and Spain are the only two contenders in my book. Argentina won't win they don't have enough key pieces in the midfield. You don't win world cup's simply because you have 2 great strikers and the best player in the world on your team.

Can elaborate on these picks more but i'm too lazy.

[Dark Horse]

Shopping around for futures I so far have:
- Argentina +950; Messi could be the star player of the tournament. After his four goals in the CL, people jumped on Argentina. Price no longer available.
- Netherlands +1500; Van Persie is back for the Netherlands, which significantly increases their chances. He was just on the pitch tonight for Arsenal and looked incredible, but this news hasn't reached the WC futures yet. (Robben and Van Persie...)

Brazil and Spain don't have much value at the current prices. If Spain and Brazil win their group only one of them can reach the final four (if I remember correctly). I'm tossing out England, Germany, Italy, and France, along with all African teams. England is always overrated, and is just an average European team (they do have a pretty easy draw though); Germany is always dangerous in the WC, but lacks world class players; Italy and France are coming off peaks, and are rebuilding. African teams lack the experience.

I think that Argentina and the Netherlands have better players than Brazil. And it will be winter in S. Africa. So this time Brazil lacks the 'beach soccer' advantage of extreme summer heat that drains the life out of European teams. The one team that scares the daylight out of me is Spain. But it's very hard to follow up a European Championship with a World Championship. They have a target on their backs.

The exciting World Cups revolve around star players, who can take over a game and change it. The boring World Cups do not. The last real star that took over the WC tournament was Maradona (1986). And the last real star to do it in the European Championship was Van Basten (1988). Recent tournaments are less exciting, because the players are too tired. They play far more games for their club teams now. Few people may remember that, in 1988, Van Basten just came back from an injury that had sidelined him for months. He was fresh. And it showed (this time Van Persie is similarly rested).

A key advantage that star players can bring is very recent club success at the highest level. If Messi wins the CL with Barcelona he's right where he needs to be. The World Cup starts just weeks later. It doesn't hurt a Dutch future that Sneijder (Inter) and Robben (Bayern) are deep into the CL as well.

[Shark79]

its too early to make calls yet because rosters are not out and dont forget the weather is a huge factor.

Agreed.

We cannot judge yet, a significant player for a squad can still miss out the WC. Good Example Spain: Torres, Fabregras, Iniesta are out right now.

[SoV]

Shut the **** up, Smogs.