Chelsea/Bolton OVER 3.5 (+110)

[Wilforth]

Chelsea/Bolton OVER 3.5 (+110)

The last 3 meetings between these sides have gone OVER 3.5, but that's not my reason for this pick. My reason for this pick is based on the most likely scoreline for the game. I have Chelsea winning by 3-1. Here's why:

1) Chelsea have scored 4 goals against Bolton in each of the last 3 meetings. Expect something different today. Chelsea will go one goal below that, which suggests they'll put up 3 goals against Bolton.
2) Bolton has been shut out in the L2 meetings. Expect something different today, which means Bolton will score against Chelsea. One's proposition is that Bolton will score one goal in today's game.

Both 1) and 2) point to a 3-1 Chelsea win.

Now let's look at the spread lines:
Chelsea -2 (-155)
Bolton +2 (+115)

Because Chelsea have won each of the L2 meetings by 4-0, Chelsea -2 appears the easier pick. If you're familiar with soccer betting, you'd know that Chelsea -2 will either end in a loss or a push. On the grounds of the predicted score for this game, one proposes that Chelsea -2 will end in a push.

Thus, neither Chelsea -2 (-155) nor UNDER 3.5 (-150) offer much value. Go with the value and enjoy the goals.

[LostBankroll]

Thanks for the play. I wish Matchbook had these alternate lines but they dont. So taking the over 2.5 at -197.

[SRBI]

Very nice write-up Wilforth.

I'm always scared to play the over in a fixture like this, because Chelsea could easily keep a clean sheet and nick in 3 goals.

Wouldn't that suck? Yes it would.

[bostonbruins]

On the under 3.5 (-128)

GL anyway

[JOHON8]

Drogba isn't starting but it won't matter much for the win, just the goal count as you said.

excellent write up Wilforth

[EaglesPhan36]

Worth a roll Wilforth. I took the chalkier approach, Over 2.5 at -217. Let's get 5 goals and not worry about it.

[Wilforth]

On the under 3.5 (-128)

GL anyway

You were right on the UNDER in the Real/Barcelona game and here you go again. But I think one Bolton goal is all that's needed to get this game Over 3.5. Even without Drogba, Chelsea should put up no less than 3 goals against a Bolton side that don't seem to understand the meaning of defense.

Worth a roll Wilforth. I took the chalkier approach, Over 2.5 at -217. Let's get 5 goals and not worry about it.

Chelsea will go OVER 2.5 by themselves.

Drogba isn't starting but it won't matter much for the win, just the goal count as you said.

excellent write up Wilforth

Exactly! They don't need Drogba to get goals against Bolton.

Very nice write-up Wilforth.

I'm always scared to play the over in a fixture like this, because Chelsea could easily keep a clean sheet and nick in 3 goals.

Wouldn't that suck? Yes it would.

I understand your point. But let's consider these:
1) It's not easy to shut out any team in the same league thrice in a row. Chelsea have shut out Bolton in the L2 meetings and that'll be very unlikely today.
2) Chelsea have kept only 3 clean sheets in their L10 home games so there's a 70% chance they'll concede at least one goal today.
3) In their L5 games, Chelsea haven't kept a clean sheet twice in a row. They kept a clean sheet in their last match, so the possibility that they'll concede is very high on the cards.
4) If Chelsea build up something like a 3-0 lead in the game, one expects their defensive intensity to fall down the stretch, which will make it easier for Bolton to get on the score sheet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Where do you guys see Drogba being out? Hadn't seen lineups anywhere yet.

[Nyphra]

Haha, I was thinking about this game and I ended up with the exact same conclusion (even the correct score ). Lets enjoy the game .

[Wilforth]

Haha, I was thinking about this game and I ended up with the exact same conclusion (even the correct score ). Lets enjoy the game .

Thanks Nyphra.

[Wilforth]

Where do you guys see Drogba being out? Hadn't seen lineups anywhere yet.

Yes, Drogba is out according to both Eurosport and BBC.

http://eurosport.yahoo.com/football/premier-league/2009-2010/chelsea-bolton-wanderers-283318.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/eng_prem/8611471.stm

Here's the team news:Chelsea manager Carlo Ancelotti will freshen up his side by making at least two changes on Tuesday night.
Michael Ballack and Salomon Kalou will start in place of Deco and Joe Cole, while Nicolas Anelka could come in for top scorer Didier Drogba.
Bolton midfielders Mark Davies and Ricardo Gardner return to the squad after injury.
Davies missed Bolton's defeat at home to Aston Villa, while Gardner has not played for a month.

[JOHON8]

Anyone playing Bolton handicap +1 or +2 goals? lol there is still a lot of value in those for a premiere league side.

[SRBI]

Anyone playing Bolton handicap +1 or +2 goals? lol there is still a lot of value in those for a premiere league side.

No value against Chelsea at home

[Tommy_de1st]

Lines up:
Chelsea

• 01 Cech
• 19 Ferreira
• 26 Terry
• 33 Alex
• 08 Lampard
• 12 Mikel
• 13 Ballack
• 18 Zhirkov
• 11 Drogba
• 21 Kalou
• 39 Anelka

Substitutes

• 40 Hilario,
• 43 Bruma,
• 52 Van Aanholt,
• 10 J Cole,
• 15 Malouda,
• 20 Deco,
• 23 Sturridge

Bolton

• 22 Jaaskelainen
• 04 Robinson
• 05 Cahill
• 12 Knight
• 15 Steinsson
• 18 Ricketts
• 06 Muamba
• 07 Taylor
• 27 Lee
• 32 Wilshere
• 14 Davies

Substitutes

• 26 Al Habsi,
• 03 Samuel,
• 16 Davies,
• 21 Cohen,
• 40 Weiss,
• 09 Elmander,
• 17 Klasnic

[Wilforth]

No value against Chelsea at home

Especially now that they're on course to win the EPL.

[rfr3sh]

chelsea -2 looks tempting just got pounded

[mihaita666]

chelsea wins 5-0

[hustla]

solid 1-0, they play with tottenham at weekend

[Tommy_de1st]

Im praying for Bolton to score

[Tommy_de1st]

shoulda been penalty for Bolton

[Wilforth]

Chelsea/Bolton OVER 3.5 (+110) LOSS

We can give a million excuses on why this ended in a loss. We could claim Kalou should have scored 2 and Joe Cole should have scored. We could claim Bolton should have gotten a penalty. But none of that now counts. No matter the derivation, a loss is a loss.

0-1 -1.00

[Tommy_de1st]

Wilforth
You were right bout 1 thing
That game was sth different from the previous ones between these sides

[JOHON8]

it was either Bolton scores, or Bolton defends to keep it tight.

Glad I have exams, they have saved me from betting. What a goal drought in England....