Wednesday Champions League Plays

[pavyracer]

Manchester United to advance pk +113

I like this play for two reasons. Before the first game the odds were -250 for Man U advance to semis and now have climbed to +113 after a last min goal by Bayern on the first game. Why? Something doesn't add up. Also I believe UEFA wants an English team in the semi-finals for TV reasons.

Manchester United/Bayern over 2.5 -121

I believe United will not play for a 1-0 win to advance and Bayern won't play for a scoreless draw. So if this scenario is true United have to score at least twice and Bayern at least once which means we will have goals to cover the over.

Bordeaux -0.5 +109

Lyon are playing without 3 of their good players tonight (Lisandro, Makoun, Govou) and they can still advance with a loss of one goal. Bordeuax won all their CL games at home this year and as it was obvious from the first game they can score goals and bring the game to Lyon.

[gshock1]

Manchester United to advance pk +113

I like this play for two reasons. Before the first game the odds were -250 for Man U advance to semis and now have climbed to +113 after a last min goal by Bayern on the first game. Why? Something doesn't add up. Also I believe UEFA wants an English team in the semi-finals for TV reasons.

Manchester United/Bayern over 2.5 -121

I believe United will not play for a 1-0 win to advance and Bayern won't play for a scoreless draw. So if this scenario is true United have to score at least twice and Bayern at least once which means we will have goals to cover the over.

Bordeaux -0.5 +109

Lyon are playing without 3 of their good players tonight (Lisandro, Makoun, Govou) and they can still advance with a loss of one goal. Bordeuax won all their CL games at home this year and as it was obvious from the first game they can score goals and bring the game to Lyon.

UEFA wants an English team in the semi-finals for TV reasons.

[JOHON8]

I'm not betting pre-game, I'm doing live, but here are my predictions:

United 3-2 Bayern, Bayern advance.

Bordeaux 2-1 Lyon, Lyon Advance

[iako173]

agree and tailing in parlay

[Club]

Excuse the dumb question but what has to happen for Man U to advance? In other words, if I bet Man U to advance, what needs to happen for that bet to win? Do they have to win, draw, lose by just 1, etc? Thanks.

[pavyracer]

Excuse the dumb question but what has to happen for Man U to advance? In other words, if I bet Man U to advance, what needs to happen for that bet to win? Do they have to win, draw, lose by just 1, etc? Thanks.

Bayern won first leg 2-1.

Man U advances with the following scores:

1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 4-0, ...
3-1, 4-2, 5-3..

If the game ends 2-1 Man U there is OT and pk's if needed.

So the ML for Man U is -123 but the advance line is +113. The only way the Man U ML is better is if Man U wins 2-1 in regulation but loses or draws or loses pk's in OT or they win 3-2, 4-3 or 5-4. I see more value in taking +113 odds instead of paying juice even though my pick is riskier.

[Sawyer]

Nice to see you on Red Devils Pavy! GL!

[Karayilan9]

Roony is there
Man U pulled a mean Kansas city shuffle there. Its hard to fade Man U at home at Old Trafford, Alex Ferguson will summon all his powers.

The dark forces of the Red Devils

[Club]

Good explanation. Thanks.

[Club]

So the ML for Man U is -123 but the advance line is +113. The only way the Man U ML is better is if Man U wins 2-1 in regulation but loses or draws or loses pk's in OT or they win 3-2, 4-3 or 5-4. I see more value in taking +113 odds instead of paying juice even though my pick is riskier.

Definitely the right call given the odds differential. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. Sometimes, the smart bet isn't the winning bet. That's gambling.
2-1 again though.

[JOHON8]

I'm not betting pre-game, I'm doing live, but here are my predictions:

United 3-2 Bayern, Bayern advance.

Bordeaux 2-1 Lyon, Lyon Advance

FT: United 3-2 Bayern, Bayern advance.

FT: Bordeaux 1-0 Lyon, Lyon advance.

Close enough...

[pavyracer]

So the ML for Man U is -123 but the advance line is +113. The only way the Man U ML is better is if Man U wins 2-1 in regulation but loses or draws or loses pk's in OT or they win 3-2, 4-3 or 5-4. I see more value in taking +113 odds instead of paying juice even though my pick is riskier.

Definitely the right call given the odds differential. Unfortunately, it didn't work out. Sometimes, the smart bet isn't the winning bet. That's gambling.
2-1 again though.

The odds for a 3-2 final score were slim before the game started. You play the right odds before the game starts and hope for the best because gambling in soccer is a marathon and not a sprint. The goal is to stay in the game and don't blow your bankroll.

[pavyracer]

FT: United 3-2 Bayern, Bayern advance.

FT: Bordeaux 1-0 Lyon, Lyon advance.

Close enough...

Good call. Hope you parlayed those two John.

[JOHON8]

Good call. Hope you parlayed those two John.

nope, I was too busy in the English Conference, but it does give me confidence that I'm following these games correctly.

[Totolover1409]

nice calls Johon