Smogs Saturday Picks

[Smogs]

It's going to be a big weekend of betting for me i feel, i originally fancied just the odd couple of bets but have gone a little bit silly

Where better to start than my bet of the weekend -

Wigan/Burnley - Wigan @ 8/11 1 Unit

I took the early price of 8/11 thinking it would go down to 4/6 but the odds have gone the other way to 4/5. Oh well, i hope i am right in thinking that this has the makings of a 1-0/2-0 type scoreline and i cannot see Burnley coming to the JJB and getting their first away win, despite how positively they play and how awful Wigan are right now.

Both teams are in horrific form but it is Burnley who have just the one point on the road this season, at Man City fair enough but they have a habit of crumbling very easily on the road.
They have just one win in their last 10 and while Wigan do also, i feel they are more capable of an end of season run to stay out of the relegation battle.

I haven't got the time for other write ups at the moment but will be back to post them later after a night out boozing

*I am liking :

Barnsley +0.75
Everton -1
Charlton -1
Wigan Under
Middlesbrough -0.25
QPR Over
Bournemouth AH -0.25

[datrugal]

i am so liking the under on wigan vs burnley

[Smogs]

i am so liking the under on wigan vs burnley

I'm beginning to love it

[Bostonknowledge]

I like this pick, burnley is historically bad away from Turf Moore.

[rumple]

Nice card, good luck!

[bostonbruins]

GL man, hit em hard

[theplagy]

Battle of shit teams. The favorite between these two are 0-5 ats. Hopefully you cash tho as I like under a lot more

[Sforz]

good luck tomorrow bro

[Smogs]

Just adding some plays -

Wigan/Burnley - Under 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 1 Unit

I had already bet the Wigan ML earlier this week but the consensus on here thinks the game will go under. That is good enough for me as i was already thinking this would be 1-0 Wigan at best probably. If Burnley score first i am completely f*cked on all counts but the pitch is a complete disgrace. Liverpool couldn't score on it, and even though Spurs got 3, they had just one after 80 minutes. It will be so hard to get the ball down and play that the under looks very good value.

Middlesbrough/Reading - Middlesbrough -0.25 @ 4/5 0.8 Units

The reason why i've gone on the handicap is that i do not see Reading coming up to the Riverside and winning outright. I think worst case scenario is the draw and i can take the half stake loss.
Middlesbrough have really strengthened their form at home and haven't lost there in a long time.
Reading have really picked up but they have still lost 4 of their last 6 on the road.

QPR/Swansea - Over 2.5 @ 6/4 0.5 Units

I promise this is the last time i bet a Swansea over seeing as i got burned last time.
However, i think this offers big value and 6/4 is a crazy price in the championship for a total.
What makes me interested is that Swansea leaked 2 late goals last week and it now means they haven't won in 2 games. Their lack of scoring has caught up with them and they know they will have to score 2 at least to beat this resurgent QPR team.
QPR incidentally love seeing goals at home with 55 in 17 home games.
I am going for this purely for value and it will probably finish 1-1

[Smogs]

Everton/Charlton Double @ 5/4 0.8 Units

Doubles make me feel uneasy but i think this has a very good chance as both teams are facing very weak away teams. Gillingham may be classed as a derby for Charlton but they differ in quality. Gillingham haven't won on the road yet while Charlton have revived after a mid season dip.
Everton need to keep up their end of season push to have any chance of Europe and this game is perfect for them in theory.
Everton have won the last 3 straight without conceding a goal against Bolton and with Everton having won their last 6 at home, and with Bolton fresh off an away win they then lost 4-0 to Sunderland.

That's it for me - good luck to all, unless you are against my bets

[AsRequested]

I am on the Wigan/Burnley-UNDER as well and i wish you good luck with all the picks. I am only playing that one today i guess.

bol

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

GL.

[Smogs]

Cheers guys - i have to be honest, i went to grab a sandwich from the shop and stopped off in the bookies on the way back - and managed to bet another 2.5 units

Here's the full recap:

Wigan @ 8/11 1 Unit
Wigan/Burnley - Under 2.5 Goals @ 17/20 1 Unit
Middlesbrough -0.25 @ 4/5 0.8 Units
QPR/Swansea - Over 2.5 @ 6/4 0.5 Units
Everton/Charlton Double @ 5/4 0.8 Units

*Then added

Bournemouth @6/5 0.5 Units
Sunderland @6/5 0.5 Units
Swindon/Notts County Over Double 0.5 Units
Arsenal/Celtic Double 1 Unit

Make or break i guess

[cav1x]

Good luck

[SRBI]

Good luck Smogs, I was thinking about putting a little on Middlesbrough myself.

[Smogs]

Good luck Smogs, I was thinking about putting a little on Middlesbrough myself.

Yeah, they aren't worth a big bet but i definitely think they won't lose, the -0.25 is the safest i reckon

[Sforz]

Wigan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SRBI]

Wigan 1111111 in the 90' minutes what a miracle!

[Sforz]

[Smogs]

Wigan saved my ass - but still a terrible 3-5 day for a loss of 0.6 units. Thank god the big bets won.

Cardiff and Leicester are going to get my money tomorrow i think

[hedgejob]

Congrats

[SRBI]

Newcastle -0.5 at -110? Love this team...so sick wit it.

[Smogs]

With Arsenal wrapping up the win as i speak, the day is now 4-5 for a loss of 0.2 units, not as bad as it was looking with 5 minutes to go in the 3pm games

[theplagy]

Nice Job Smogs, I got buried today in Soccer,