Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now

[lovekamina]

I created this new thread because I got many complains the old one was to complex.

You can find it here:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/soccer-handicapping/380453-statistical-correct-score-betting-football-soccer.html#post3554051

Please read the old thread for further explanations.

I will only write down the score to bet, the games and the stakes. Later on I will add the odds for the games.

All Correct Score bets are on the big betting exchange. Other bets will be on a small pool of traditionell bookmakers.

Some notices about the stakes to bet:
- One unit is the standard bet. For the tracking it equals 10 € / $ / £ .
- There will be half unit bets or even third or quarter bets for very high odds or more than one bet on a game.
- There will be bets with two unit or even more on very rentabel systems or when its not a correct score bet, f.e. a simple draw bet.

Another important thing: I will set two categoeries for tracking now. Normal picks, now named "European Picks" are based on systems which used the data of several different european leagues (up to 30 leagues). The other picks will be league specific, which means the system is only created for this league.

So far there were nearly only be "normal" picks, in the future there will be more and more league specific system - if they work nearly as good as the european systems...

The record @ 2010-03-16 19:00 CET is:

European Picks (EP):
645 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 533.88 after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
30 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 30 after 5.0 % commision

Picks for today will follow in a few minutes

[lovekamina]

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50
Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50
Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5
Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0

GL for all who follow... may all the strikers have a bad day today

[lovekamina]

Today a loosing day, with some bad luck:

European Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro)
- 10 Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50 - result: 0-1
- 10 Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50 - result: 0-2 (two late goals)

League Specific Picks:

0-0 - 1 Unit
- 10 Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50 - result: 3-0
- 10 Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5 - result: 1-0 (85th minute)
- 10 Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0 - result: 2-2

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
50 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 50 € after 5.0 % commision

[lovekamina]

Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5

Newcastle - Scunthorpe
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

[lovekamina]

adding for newcastle game:
0,5 untis any unquoted @ 4.5

[lovekamina]

grasshoppers 2-0

maybe newcastle 2 further goals to get the any unquoted @ 4.5.

next weekend there will be even more picks thatn this weekend because i took a lot of work so far and will do in the next two / three nights on that. after that i might filter out some picks or generate categoeries f.e. based on odds.

[lovekamina]

0-0 --- 1 Unit
Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5 result: 2-0

Newcastle - Scunthorpe result: 3-0
0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34
0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22
Any Unquoted = 0,5 @ 4.5
Away = 0,5 Units @ 12

New record:

European Picks (EP):
665 € risked
1208,88 € payout
---
+ 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
75 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 75 € after 5.0 % commision

Stay tuned for a new system idea in a few minutes...

[lovekamina]

Since I was not happy about the late goals at the 0-0 picks I checked out how many 0-0 picks had at 0-0 at half time. There were 36 0-0 picks so far which which result 17 times 0-0 at half time. The real odds (after commision) at Betfair are slightly above 3.0 as could see so far, maybe around 3.20 in the middle. With the strike rate of so far of 47.22 % this would have been a yield of 50 % so far with flat betting.

The new system is quite simple: every game which is a 0-0 full time bet is also a half time 0-0 bet.

The tracking will be on one side the "normal betting" with different stakes and the on the other hand a chasing system with two stages.

Example with 3.20 Betfair / 3.10 real odds to win 50 €
A: risk 23.25 to win 50.00
B: risk 34.07 to win 73.25 (- 23.25 of A = 50.00)

If two bets in a row are lost its a total loss of 57.32 in this example. At a strike rate of 45% 0-0 at half time a lost serie should be the case in 30 %. In the other 70 % it would be a profit of 50 € .

3 * - 57.32 = - 172 €
7 * + 50.00 = + 350 €
= + 178

There will be several series at one time with different starting stakes like on the normal betting systems.

I dont like to chase more than two stages because I think its just too much stress for the mind having too much on one bet, even its more profit in the long term.

Lets see how it will work out.

[lovekamina]

European systems:


0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units
0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit
1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units

0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units
2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units


Picks based on league specific systems:

0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units

2-1 - Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit
2-1 - Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit
2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units
2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units

Half Time 0-0 Picks:

Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units

Other Correct Score Half Time Markets are not avaible for fridays games on bf.

[smitch124]

Are you going to post what price you are getting on these? I sometimes do tail if I can find anything even close to the same in the US facing books.

[lovekamina]

European systems:


--- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result:
--- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result:
--- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result:

- 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result:
--- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50


Picks based on league specific systems:

- 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result:

--- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result:
--- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result:
--- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result:
--- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result:

Half Time 0-0 Picks:

- 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- result:

[lovekamina]

without betfair its ahrd ito get these prices

[lovekamina]

Today another winning day

Total risk of 195 € and a payout of 268.54 € which is a profit of + 73.54 € (Yield 38 %)


European Picks systems:

- 15 --- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result: 3-1
- 7.5 --- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result: 2-1
+ 64.60 --- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result: 1-0

- 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result:
- 20--- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50 --- result: 4-1

---

Total Today EuropeanPicks:
Risk: 77.50
Payout: 84.60
Profit: + 7.10

Picks based on league specific systems:

- 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result: 2-0

- 10 --- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result: 1-0
- 10 --- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result: 1-2
+ 78.75 --- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result: 2-1
+ 67.69 --- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result: 0-1

Total Today LeagueSpecificPicks:
Risk: 77.50
Payout: 183.94
Profit: + 106.44


Half Time 0-0 Picks:

- 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- half time result: 1-0

Risk: 40
Payout: 0
Profit: -40

Around 40 Picks for tommorow for the different systems coming later this evening.

[lovekamina]

New record:

European Picks (EP):
742.50 € risked
1293.48 € payout
---
+ 550.98 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
152.50 € risked
183.94 € payout
---
+ 31.44 € after 5.0 % commision

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):
40 € risked
0,00 € payout
---
- 40 € after 5.0 % commision

[lovekamina]

Okay guys, I shortened it down to around 20 games for this saturday; I had many more but I think only few want to have an endless list of small bets...

Also forget about the chasing system for the 0-0 Half Time system at first. I want to keep it as simple as possible.

Here is what I got. The odds will come tommorow.

European systems:

Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds:
Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd:

Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds:
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 0,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd:

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):

Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd:
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd:

[theplagy]

interesting, just win once every 7-8 match and make shit ton of money

i'll be following closely, GL

[lovekamina]

- Added odds

European systems:

Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odd: 10 + 12.5
Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: 10.5
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: 12.0
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: 10.5
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: 15
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: 40
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: 10.0
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: 11
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.0
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: 13.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: 11.0
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5


Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: 11.5 + 7.4
Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: 7.6
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston North End --- 0,5 units --- odd: 19
Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 10.5

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):

Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: 2.86
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: 3.05
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: 3.05
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: 3.0
Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: 3.8

[lovekamina]

GL to you too plagy

[lovekamina]

another winning day with a + of around 60 € (15 % Yield) - details later

[Smogs]

great job today

[lovekamina]

Thank you!

European systems:

- 15 Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odd: 10 + 12.5 --- result: 2-2
- 10 Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 1-0
- 20 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: 12.0 --- result: 2-2
+ 135.38 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 2-0
- 20 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: 15 --- result: 0-0
- 05 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: 40 --- result: 0-0
- 10 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: 10.0 --- result: 4-1
- 10 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: 11 --- result: 1-1
- 20 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 1-1
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.0 --- result: 2-1
- 15 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 1-2
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: 11.0 --- result: 2-2
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 3-2
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 2-3

Total Risk: 180
Payout: 150.38
Profit: - 29.62

Picks based on league specific systems:

+ 41.80 --- Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: 11.5 + 7.4 --- result: 1-1
- 15 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: 7.6 --- result: 1-0
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 0-2
+ 109.25 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 0-0
- 05 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston North End --- 0,5 units --- odd: 19 --- result: 3-2
- 15 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 2-1

Total Risk: 85
Payout: 191.05
Profit: + 106.05

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):

- 40 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: 2.86 --- result: 1-0
+ 38.95--- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: 3.05 --- result: 0-0
- 25 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: 3.05 --- result: 1-1
+ 19 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: 3.0 --- result: 0-0
- 10 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: 3.8 --- result: 3-2

Total Risk: 125
Payout: 107.95
Profit: - 17.05

---------------------------

New record:

European Picks (EP):
922.50 € risked
1443.86 € payout
---
+ 521.36 € after 5.0 % commision

Payout: 150.38
Profit: - 29.62

League Specific Picks (LSP):
237.50 € risked
375.99 € payout
---
+ 137.49 € after 5.0 % commision

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):
Total Risk: 165
Payout: 107.95
---
- 57.05 € after 5.0 % commision

[lovekamina]

20 Games for sunday. GL for all who bet on it...

European systems:

Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.32 --- result:
Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd --- result:

Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + --- result:
Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 20 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd --- result:

0-0 Half Time System:

Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd--- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 3 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd --- result:

I wonder if anybody is interested in all this? Its a lot of work and have nice results so far but nobody leaves a comment!?

[Smogs]

303 views dude, people are interested. I've just seen that we are thinking alike with the Livorno/Atalanta 0-0 score line.

I might bump up my unit stake on the under as well as have a dabble on the over in Bordeaux

[lovekamina]

hm I dont if 300 is a big number for the living time of this thread.. hope so

I added a pool and im curios to see how many people have access to Betfair since I heart its not possible to bet on it from the states

[dlew2k]

Interesting statistics there. Ok, I am on it.

[Karayilan9]

Good work Kamina

Half time 0-0 have the highest degree of predictability, there are a number of factors such as when two teams evenly matched play and both teams field a defensive line-up with alot of defensive midfielders across the middle as it can create a deadlock. When a small team plays a big name team, they are likely to try and park the bus. There are some managers who like a first half draw as they observe the match and find a way to crack the other team. Also just shitty finishing in the first half can help

Take a look at Chievo v Catania, 1-1 score

[lovekamina]

thanks for you tips kara!

hm.. the 0-0 HT System ist the one I am not so sure about yet, because the real odds are slighty below 3.0 and if the strike rates is below 40 % it shrinks the yield down :[

[lovekamina]

Updated odds and shortened down the units for the norwegian games this evening.

European systems:

Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result:
Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- 17.5 odd --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1
Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1
Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1
Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result:

Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 11.5 --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result:
Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 20 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd --- result:

0-0 Half Time System:

Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 3 units --- odd --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd --- result: 2.9
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd --- result:

[lovekamina]

Updating Odds, Adding first Results

Just Odds for belgium games this evening are not rdy yet.

European systems:

Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result:
Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd 17.5 --- result:
Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result:
- 20 Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd 13.0 --- result:
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result:

Picks based on league specific systems:

Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 7.4 + 11.5 --- result:
Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result:
Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 20 + 10.5--- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd 11 --- result:

0-0 Half Time System:

- 40 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result: loss
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 2 units --- odd 3.15 --- result: --- shortened down from 3 to 2 units
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 1-0
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result:
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd 2.90 --- result:
+ 58.43 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 0-0
Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd 2.92 --- result:

[Karayilan9]

Kamina did you take the Chievo v Catania correct score 1-1

[lovekamina]

yesterday was a losing day. details later.

i was away the whole day so i am too late for picks goteborg - hacken 1-0 today wih 1,5 units and brondy vs randers 1-1 & 2-1 each 1 unit.

but there is one pick starting in 30 minutes: angers vs caen 0-0 / 1-0 and 2-0 each 1 unit

[Gargamel]

I'm very interested lovekamina. I consider tailing you, but not sure if I'll pull the trigger yet. Very interested to see if you can keep it up however.

Fascinating thread. I'll give you a point to cheer you up a bit!

[smitch124]

I love the thread and will definitely tail when I can find anything close pricewise, keep this thread going!

[lovekamina]

European systems:

+ 48.64 Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result:
- 7.50 Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result: 3-1
- 10 Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result: 1-0
- 15 Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd 17.5 --- result: 0-1
- 15 Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result: 1-1
- 22.50 Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds ... --- result: 0-0
- 22.50 Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds ... --- result: 1-1
- 20 Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result: 0-3
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: 3-1
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: 1-2
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd 13.0 --- result: 2-2
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result: 2-1
- 15 Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result: 2-0
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result: 3-0
- 30 Bet: 0-0 1-0 2-0 --- Angers vs Caen --- 1 + 1 + 1 unit --- ... --- result: 2-2

Total Risk: 247.50
Payout: 88.64
Profit: - 158.64

Picks based on league specific systems:

- 15 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result: 0-3
- 20 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 7.4 + 11.5 --- result: 1-0
- 20 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result: 2-0
- 20 Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 20 + 10.5--- result: 1-2
- 15 Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result: 1-0
- 05 Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result: 2-0
- 10 Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd 11 --- result: 2-2

Risk Total: 105
Payout: 0.00
Profit: - 105

0-0 Half Time System:

- 40 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result: 0-1
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 2 units --- odd 3.15 --- result: --- 0-1
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 1-0
+ 48.45 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result: 0-0
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result: 1-0
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd 2.90 --- result: 0-2
+ 58.43 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 0-0
- 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd 2.92 --- result: 2-0

Total Risk: 200
Payout: 166.88
Profit: - 33.12

-----------------

New record:

European Picks (EP):
1170.00 € risked
1532.50 € payout
---
+ 362.50 € after 5.0 % commision

League Specific Picks (LSP):
342.50 € risked
375.99 € payout
---
+ 32.49 € after 5.0 % commision

0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT):
Total Risk: 365
Payout: 224.83
---
- 140.17 € after 5.0 % commision --- This Half Time system test ends hear

[lovekamina]

Missed a couple of nice wins during the week because the data archive was not up to date and i was too lazy to fill in all results manually.

For today we have...

a few picks, but lets start with 2. Bundesliga:
0-0 --- FSV Frankfurt - Union Berlin --- 2 units @ 10.0