The -1 Draw Handicap

[JOHON8]

The -1 Draw for my book almost always carries 3.5 odds or higher, Sometimes a ridiculous price of like 5.0 when you are almost certain a game will end up with a 1 goal winner. For those who don't know what it is... any game that ends up with 1 team winning by 1 goal = cash.

Ex. 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 etc...

Ex. Round 1 of the Last 16 CL matches: 6 out of 8 = -1 Draws.

Ex. So far 19 out of 40 friendlies from March 3-4 ended up in -1 draws. (most of the ones that didn't you would already predict to be easy 2 or more goal wins anyway)

I've been starting to use this strategy in tight matches with small bets. Most of the times when the games I chose to be tight failed was when the opposition went from 2-1 to 3-1 or 2-2 in the last minute. It is a risky bet, but I'm finding that if you know what league and which games to but on it's pretty profitable.

Any thoughts?

[mariomonte]

If you use appropriate filters, you can spot matches with high EH draw possibilities.
The problem, though, is that EH bets are only offered from crappy low limit / low payout (<90%) books, so it is very difficult to make serious money.
If there would be an Asian market for those bets, things would be different.

[diamond]

"when you are almost certain a game will end up with a 1 goal winner."

How can you in any match in any league, be almost certain on such an outcome?

[Gargamel]

I don't think I've ever seen this play.

In the European Handicap, don't you have to pick the team that will win with 1 goal as well?

For example I'm used to this:
Man United (+1) 1.63
Draw (Chelsea -1) 4.33
Chelsea (-1) 4.33

[bostonbruins]

I'm finding that if you know what league and which games to but on it's pretty profitable.

Any thoughts?

Isnt this true of all gambling,..nothings easy

[JOHON8]

Isnt this true of all gambling,..nothings easy

Yes obviously, but isn't it also true that you can always find an edge over the books? Which is why I opened this thread to discuss this.

Here's a little article by some guy who used this strategy:

http://www.online-betting.me.uk/strategies/tom.html

[Gargamel]

I don't mean to start an argument here - and I don't doubt that you can work out a good way for this JOHON8 - but that guy in the link you're referring too seems like a bit of a tool.

He is sure it works great because he hit a crazy three way play, and on top of it all he wants to use some kind of martingale system where he doubles his stakes every time he loses out.

Not great promotion to me

[rfr3sh]

I think it works well lets say you use bet365(AH) and Willhill(EH)
bet365 offers chelsea -1 @ 2.0 lets say
willhill offers chelsea -1 tie @ 4.0

You can bet 2 units on Chelsea -1 at bet365
and 1 Unit on chelsea -1 tie at willhill
so if they win by 1 exactly you are up 4 units
if they win by 2 or more then you are up 3 units

[bostonbruins]

And if they draw or lose youre buried. Look at last week..

[rfr3sh]

For saturday im trying:

Arsenal -2 1.775 To win 3 units
Tie - Arsenal (-2 goals) vs Burnley (+2) @ 4.00 1 Units

Risk: 4.87 Units
If Arsenal Win by 2 Exactly: +4 Units
If Arsenal win by 3 or More: -1+3 = +2 Units

[theplagy]

I think it works well lets say you use bet365(AH) and Willhill(EH)
bet365 offers chelsea -1 @ 2.0 lets say
willhill offers chelsea -1 tie @ 4.0

You can bet 2 units on Chelsea -1 at bet365
and 1 Unit on chelsea -1 tie at willhill
so if they win by 1 exactly you are up 4 units
if they win by 2 or more then you are up 3 units

I think you're wrong.
If they draw you lose 3 units.
If they win by one you +4 unit
If they win by 2+ you +1 unit.

right?

essentially you are risking 3 unit to win 1 or 4

[rfr3sh]

yeah you might be right but I think my calculation for the Arsenal one is correct?

[JOHON8]

And if they draw or lose youre buried. Look at last week..

He's betting on the Arsenal game which is the most likely team to win in the EPL this week right?

So yes you are right, he is risking a loss and a tie to occur, but he's doing it on the team that's most likely to pull off a 1 goal or 2+ goal win. I think the whole point of risking 2 plays like this is if you are really confident the team is winning.

[rfr3sh]

For saturday im trying: Arsenal -2 1.775 To win 3 units Tie - Arsenal (-2 goals) vs Burnley (+2) @ 4.00 1 Units Risk: 4.87 Units If Arsenal Win by 2 Exactly: +4 Units If Arsenal win by 3 or More: -1+3 = +2 Units

arsenal -2 tie +4 units

[JOHON8]

arsenal -2 tie +4 units

good call.

[theplagy]

there you go, break the book !!