Premier League Matchday 1 Predictions

[SBR Andy]

The 2025/2026 Premier League season kicks off this weekend and SBR's Gary Pearson shares his EPL predictions for Matchday 1:

Liverpool vs. Bournemouth: Liverpool win & Bournemouth not to score (+135 via BetMGM)

"The reigning champions conceded 16 goals in 19 matches at Anfield last season, showcasing their defensive dominance throughout the campaign. It was the joint-best defensive record in the top flight, tied with Nottingham Forest and their Matchday 1 opponent, Bournemouth.

The Reds have kept three straight clean sheets against the Cherries, outscoring them 9-0. Their last head-to-head at Anfield resulted in a 3-0 Liverpool victory.

I expect that trend to continue in the opener, with Liverpool kicking off the defense of their championship with another clean-sheet triumph. BetMGM offers the best price of our top sports betting apps, with DraftKings closest at +125."

[SBR Andy]

Wolves vs. Man City: Manchester City win & Over 1.5 goals (-150 via BetMGM)

"Despite their comparative offensive struggles on enemy ground last season, the Cityzens scored the second-most goals overall (72). Meanwhile, Wolves conceded 32 at home, the seventh-most.

Wolves defender Yerson Mosquera is set to return after missing last season with a horrific ACL and MCL rupture. While Wolves will be delighted by his return, he'll require some time to get up to the lightning-quick pace of the Premier League.

Facing Man City on his return will be about as forgiving as running full tilt into a brick wall.

Wolves have historically been woeful in August, with a solitary victory since returning to the Premier League seven years ago. That rotten run should continue against a highly motivated City side. It's a three-star play solely due to the short odds and decreased potential return."

[SBR Andy]

Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace: Chelsea win & Under 3.5 goals (+115 via DraftKings)

"Four of the previous five meetings between these London rivals ended with three goals or fewer, with both of last season's head-to-head tilts ending deadlocked at one.

With the joint-sixth-best defensive record on the road, allowing 25 goals, Crystal Palace were as stingy in hostile environments as a family of five saving for a down payment on a house.

The Blues, meanwhile, will be excited about their fresh slate, especially after winning the Club World Cup. Chelsea splashed out in the transfer market, which is about as surprising as a horse eating hay.

The club spent over $320 million on eight players, including the formidable $82-million man, Joao Pedro.

While it will take some time for Enzo Maresca to source the starting 11 that offers the best cohesion and chemistry, the Blues should have enough to take all three points."

[SBR Andy]

Leeds vs. Everton: Under 2.5 goals (-132 via FanDuel)

"The first bit of business for Leeds United upon their return to the Premier League is to source some defensive stability. In 2022-23, their previous season in the top flight, Leeds shipped 78 goals, the most of any team.

They allowed 30 in 46 matches last season, the second-fewest in the Championship, en route to guaranteed promotion.

I imagine Daniel Farke will do everything in his power to remain tight at the back. They play their first match at Elland Road, a notoriously hostile environment for opposing teams, which Everton will be acutely aware of.

The visiting Toffees struggled to muster offense again last season, scoring the fewest goals (42) of any team that remained in the top flight. I don't see that changing on opening day against an adrenaline-fueled and organized Leeds United.

FanDuel offers the edge here, providing -132 odds. Caesars (-135) is closest, while DraftKings (140) and BetMGM (-145) offer the least value."