Smogs Saturday Picks

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  • Smogs
    SBR MVP
    • 12-31-08
    • 4173

    #1
    Smogs Saturday Picks
    Bury -1 Vs Hereford @ +100

    Bury have the 3rd best form in the league at the moment over their last 15 games. They have gained 27 points in that period and with them coming up against hereford who have just 1 away win this season, and recent form that reads 3 defeats and a draw, i would say that while the value may not be there, this bet is certainly very winnable.
    At home, Bury have recently won 4 of their last 6 home games and i will take the -1 handicap because i believe at the very worst i get the push.
    Bury have recently beaten Bradford and Bournemouth and i think the good form continues here against a team that cannot get any consistency.

    Aldershot v Bournemouth : Aldershot Win @ 13/10

    Having seen Aldershot come back after a break due to the weather and get a draw at home to Rochdale. That tells me they are ready to kick on and continue the fine home form that has kept them sniffing for a playoff spot.
    Bournemouth have had a good season but are starting to slip behind Dale in the league race.
    There is a possibility that motivation dips a little as they face this hard road trip. This game actually will tell me how much they want the league title. They do have a lot of injuries and this is starting to affect them as they lose close games recently.
    I think Aldershot have a good chance here with a strong home record to give them a boost to hop back into playoff spots

    Sheff Wed v Peterborough : Sheff Wed Win @ 4/5

    Alan Irvine has come into the struggling Wedsneday setup and has transformed the place. New manager syndrome has been a blessing and now Sheff W can haul themselves further out of trouble at the expense of the Posh, who look down and out at this stage.
    They havent been able to keep the goals out and this has been seen mostly on the road, where they havent been able to score either.
    They are winless on the road and have just 8 goals in 12 away games.
    Wednesday are not much better at home with just 3 wins but they are presented with an opportunity that can change their season. Given this recent run, i think the price for a home win is just about right

    Middlesbrough v Swansea : Swansea +0.25 @ 1.95

    I love betting against my team and i think the 12/5 on offer here for the away win is a ridiculous price for a team that is not only in form, but also has away form on their side also. 11 Points from their last 6 away games, including just 6 goals conceded.
    What can i say about Boro, they have had a shocking run since that Twa...urh...i mean Gordon Strachan has joined the club, and it is now just two wins since he took over.
    We dont look like scoring at all and we have just 4 goals in our recent form.
    We have just 4 home wins and 11 goals from our 12 games. The amount of shut outs we have are unacceptable but they will continue as we find it hard to beat the better teams.
    This game will have one goal in it and i think the away side will get it


    *Leans i left out:

    Blackpool

    Southend

    Yeovil

    Northampton/Chesterfield Draw

    Torquay

    We'll see if i should have left them in
  • Smogs
    SBR MVP
    • 12-31-08
    • 4173

    #2
    Adding:

    Bayern Munich DNB @ Werder bremen - 1 unit @ 1.6 Bet365

    I was thinking about this and i like it too much to leave it out. It seems like another terribly square play with Bremen not looking too good at home, they have only won 3 from 8 at home and have only won 2 of the last 5 at home to Munich.
    They have won 1 of their last 6 and lost last time out to Frankfurt.
    Munich are going to be betting gold after the xmas break and even though it's a lot of chalk, i'll talk it with plenty of insurance
    Comment
    • spartangreen
      SBR MVP
      • 11-25-09
      • 3807

      #3
      love Bury, good luck.
      Comment
      • TurkzZ
        SBR MVP
        • 01-07-09
        • 4095

        #4
        BOL, i like the Munich play
        Forward points to Karayilan, i am unable to receive SBR points
        Comment
        • tonyno
          SBR High Roller
          • 01-18-10
          • 198

          #5
          Here are my plays for Saturday:

          -Werder Br. vs Bayern Over 2.5 goals
          -M brough vs Swansea Under 2.5 goals
          -Sheff. Wed. vs Peterborough Over 2.5 goals
          -Sevilla vs Almeria Sevilla to win
          Comment
          • Smogs
            SBR MVP
            • 12-31-08
            • 4173

            #6
            I like the Boro/Swansea Under - odds are hideous though
            Comment
            • demize21
              SBR MVP
              • 11-03-08
              • 3541

              #7
              BOL
              Comment
              • Smogs
                SBR MVP
                • 12-31-08
                • 4173

                #8
                Originally posted by Smogs
                I like the Boro/Swansea Under - odds are hideous though
                I just had to bet this - Middlesbrough/Swansea Under 2.5 Goals @ 3/5 Bet365

                This is actually a solid bet in my opinion and has some good stats to back it up.

                Boro have scored 4 goals in their last 6 games, yet to be fair have not conceded too many. We don't create enough chances to really worry teams any more and the best we can hope for is to grind out 1-0 wins.

                On the other side, Swansea are excellent at grinding 1-0 wins. They have only had 6 overs all year and 3 on the road. Swansea's good form has still only seen 7 goals in their past 6 games and this looks to me like a 1-0 Swansea win. 1-1 at the worst. I'm not going to mess around with goal line's, just taking this bet which i believe offers a fair price
                Comment
                • mihaita666
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-13-09
                  • 8596

                  #9
                  related to the bayern match....i am not going to jump on the over....bundesliga is way less generous with goals than last season.
                  Soccer record (2010) : 244-160-24
                  2010-2011 season (soccer) :
                  144-95-11
                  NBA Record (2010-2011 season) :
                  17-12-1


                  Comment
                  • Busterflywheel
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-13-09
                    • 3991

                    #10
                    Lovin the Munich Play..
                    Comment
                    • aceking
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-07-05
                      • 4782

                      #11
                      good luck .

                      Originally posted by Smogs
                      Adding:

                      Bayern Munich DNB @ Werder bremen - 1 unit @ 1.6 Bet365

                      I was thinking about this and i like it too much to leave it out. It seems like another terribly square play with Bremen not looking too good at home, they have only won 3 from 8 at home and have only won 2 of the last 5 at home to Munich.
                      They have won 1 of their last 6 and lost last time out to Frankfurt.
                      Munich are going to be betting gold after the xmas break and even though it's a lot of chalk, i'll talk it with plenty of insurance
                      Comment
                      • Smogs
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-31-08
                        • 4173

                        #12
                        OMG - i didn't lose a bet today, i am so happy right now, i hope we all cashed on some picks today
                        Comment
                        • tonyno
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 198

                          #13
                          Originally posted by tonyno
                          Here are my plays for Saturday:

                          -Werder Br. vs Bayern Over 2.5 goals WIN
                          -M brough vs Swansea Under 2.5 goals WIN
                          -Sheff. Wed. vs Peterborough Over 2.5 goals WIN
                          -Sevilla vs Almeria Sevilla to win
                          WIN

                          It is a great day!!! 4-0
                          Comment
                          • tonyno
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 01-18-10
                            • 198

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Smogs
                            OMG - i didn't lose a bet today, i am so happy right now, i hope we all cashed on some picks today

                            Great calls. Amazing Smogs
                            Comment
                            • Smogs
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-31-08
                              • 4173

                              #15
                              Same to you dude, glad Boro made you some money from being sh*t
                              Comment
                              • Busterflywheel
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-13-09
                                • 3991

                                #16
                                Damn perfecto Smogs...Nice F***ing calls my man..
                                Comment
                                • tonyno
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 198

                                  #17
                                  What's on the board for tomorrow?
                                  Here are my picks for Sunday:
                                  -Tenerife vs Valencia (Valencia to win)
                                  -Villarreal vs Zaragoza (Villarreal to win)
                                  -Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen (Leverkusen to win)
                                  -Lazio vs Chievo (Chievo +0.5)

                                  Here are my leans, only leans so far:
                                  -Real M. vs Malaga Over 2.5 goals
                                  -St.Johnstone vs Celtic Over 2.5 goals
                                  Comment
                                  • Smogs
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-31-08
                                    • 4173

                                    #18
                                    Just about to write up on Villa/zaragoza over 2.5, big f*ckin bet
                                    Comment
                                    • Euphoria38
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-04-08
                                      • 1188

                                      #19
                                      i loved the bayern pick!
                                      Comment
                                      • Smogs
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-31-08
                                        • 4173

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Euphoria38
                                        i loved the bayern pick!
                                        I was out all day at Aberdeen/Kilmarnock so it was great to come in and see my balance so much higher
                                        Comment
                                        • Squirrel
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-11-09
                                          • 1316

                                          #21
                                          Great work Smogs - Aint nothing like making some coin off your own team being a bag of crap
                                          Comment
                                          • Smogs
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-31-08
                                            • 4173

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Squirrel
                                            Great work Smogs - Aint nothing like making some coin off your own team being a bag of crap
                                            My first bet ever was against Middlesbrough - and it won (Steau Bucharest in the 1st leg of the Uefa cup semi)
                                            Comment
                                            • Squirrel
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-11-09
                                              • 1316

                                              #23
                                              Ah the good old days for Boro fans, they seem a distant memory now.

                                              I think the Owls must have cost me about 20k in my lifetime since I back them whenever I go to the games lol
                                              Comment
                                              • Smogs
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-31-08
                                                • 4173

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Squirrel
                                                Ah the good old days for Boro fans, they seem a distant memory now.

                                                I think the Owls must have cost me about 20k in my lifetime since I back them whenever I go to the games lol
                                                Lol, i always back the opposition with the view of - i either win money or see boro win usually, unless it's a draw.

                                                I drove from Aberdeen to London to watch us lose 4-0 to spurs with my mates but i had £200 on Spurs @ 4/5 or something, i knew we would get destroyed and it paid for the entire trip and then some

                                                If we had got something from that i would be broke.....student lol
                                                Comment
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