Pecheli - my daily tips

[pechelinet]

24.3. 2014

UD Almería - Real Sociedad
Pick: AWAY WIN
Stake:4/10
Odds: 2.15 (Stan James)


Head to Head
10-11-10 Almeria – Real Sociedad 2-1
13-09-10 Almeria – Real Sociedad 2-2


Probable lineups
Almeria (4-2-3-1): Esteban – Rafita, Trujillo, Torsiglieri, Dubarbier – Verza, Corona – Suso, Azeez, A. Vidal - Jonathan
Real Sociedad (4-2-3-1): Bravo – Zaldua, M. Gonzalez, I. Martinez, D. La Bella – Bergarra, Zurutuza – C. Vela, X. Prieto, Griezman - Agirretxe


Injured & Suspended
Almeria: Rodri (F, 18 matches, 7 goals)
Real Sociedad: Granero (M, 3, 0), Jose Angel (D, 18, 1)


Preview:
Almeria won only a point from their last 5 matches and are in the middle of a hard battle for survival. Real Sociedad are looking to a second successive CL qualification. They lost 3 of the last 4 away matches but still remain a very good team on counters. Under these circumstances and with the pressure Almeria have to gain points, the visitors will win here.


Markets:
Odds on Real Sociedad were slightly increased but the balance was soon found after opening of the market due to the high pressure on bettors. There is a value in the away will still and it will continue to accumulate risk.

[justkyle88]

goodluck, do you have some past history on your betting?

[pechelinet]

Yes, I am a professional, actually. Been in that business since 2004, and I even used to own a small newspaper dedicated to soccer betting.

I share some of my tips here just for the sake of discussion.

[pechelinet]

25.03.2014

Livingston FC - Alloa Athletic (Scotland Championship)
Pick: HOME WIN
Stake:8/10
Odds: 1.8 (Paddy Power)


Head to Head
19-10-13 Livingston – Alloa 3-2
26-02-11 Livingston – Alloa 4-0
07-08-10 Livingston – Alloa 3-3


Preview:
With a 4-2 victory away to Raith Rovers in the weekend, Livingston made an important step towards safety in the Championship. What they miss is results at home lately, after they lost 4 of their last 5 home matches. But if they beat Alloa today like they did it twice this season, they will secure their place in the Championship on 90% after they will open a gap of 13 points to the relegation teams with 6 matches to go.


Markets:
The negative results at home and the “good” opponent to change the trend made bookies very cautious even before opening of the market. There are significant moves after it to conclude an easy home victory is expected.

[addictedto]

Paddy have it now @1.75 rather than 1.80.

[pechelinet]

Panionios GSS - Panetolikos
Pick: HOME WIN
Stake:8/10
Odds: 1.65 (Bwin)

Analysis:

Head to Head
15-01-12 Panionios – Panaitolikos 1-0

Probable lineups
Panionios (4-2-3-1): Anestis – Kouros, Koulocheris, Pantidos, Lambropoulos – Kurdi, Mitropoulos – Aravidis, Lasnik, Kolovos - Giannou
Panaitolikos (4-2-3-1): Rafael Bracalli – Rodrigo Galo, Koussas, Bikey, Hanin – Sfakianakis, Godoy – Martinez, Bakakis, Kamara - Budimir

Injured & Suspended
Panionios: Avlonitis (D, 28 matches, 0 goals)
Panaitolikos: Theodoridis (M, 24, 5), Junior (M, 24, 1)

Preview:
Panionios lost 0-2 to Xanthi and still needs 3 points to reach37 points and be safe with their place in the top flight next season. Their opponents Panaitolikos have 37 points and are playing for nothing. They are in a bad form away losing 10 of their last 11 matches.

Markets:
Panionios is going down heavy and they have been also decreased in the positioning.

[pechelinet]

28.03.2014

Dijon FCO - AC Arles-Avignon
Pick: HOME WIN
Stake:7/10
Odds: 1.75 (Unibet)

Head to Head
17-05-13 Dijon – Arles 2-3
26-03-10 Dijon – Arles 1-1

Preview:
Dijon are 11 points above the relegation zone but must end their negative row of 5 matches without a victory if they want to stay away from troubles. Considering their next fixtures this one is must win match against opponent who are not in a good form too. Arles are without a victory in 8 matches.

Markets:
The fairs odds on positioning soon collapsed after bettors found a value in Dijon.

[wdmguy]

Dijon took a cr@p in the 92" minute, cant believe it

[pechelinet]

30.03.2014

Fulham - Everton
Pick: AWAY WIN
Stake:8/10
Odds: 1.8 (Paddy Power)


Analysis:


Head to Head
24-09-13 Fulham – Everton 2-1
03-11-12 Fulham – Everton 2-2
23-10-11 Fulham – Everton 1-3
25-09-10 Fulham – Everton 0-0
13-09-09 Fulham – Everton 2-1


Probable lineups
Fulham (4-2-3-1): Stockdale; Riether, Heitinga, Hangeland, Riise; Kvist, Kasami; Kacaniklic, Sidwell, Richardson; Wodrow.
Everton (4-2-3-1): Howard; Baines, Jagielka, Distin, Coleman; Barry, McCarthy; Osman, Barkley, Deulofeu; Lukaku.


Injured & Suspended
Fulham: Amorebieta (D, 18 matches, 0 goals), Briggs (D, 2, 0), Burn (D, 8, 0), Duff (M, 15, 0), Mitroglou (F, 2, 0), Parker (M, 24, 2)
Everton: Gibson (M, 1, 0), Kone (F, 5, 0), Pienaar (M, 22, 1), Oviedo (D, 9, 2)


Preview:
Everton won 4 in a row and even the manager Roberto Martinez claims they are not in the Champions League race, it is a fact. A new victory today will see them just 4 points behind Arsenal with a direct clash at Goodison Park next weekend. Ross Barcklay are in a terrific form and away victory is very possible.


Markets:
The away win dropped early and after that the odds line is balanced because of sure bets being made.

[pechelinet]

31.03.

Sunderland - West Ham United
Pick: HOME WIN
Stake:4/10
Odds: 2.25 (Stan James)

Analysis:

Head to Head
12-01-13 Sunderland – West Ham 3-0
05-12-10 Sunderland – West Ham 1-0
21-09-10 Sunderland – West Ham 1-2
31-10-09 Sunderland – West Ham 2-2
23-11-08 Sunderland – West Ham 2-1

Probable lineups
Sunderland (4-4-2): Mannone; Brown, Alonso; O'Shea, Bardsley; Ki, Bridcutt, Colback, Johnson; Altidore, Borini.
West Ham (4-4-1-1): Ádrian; Demel, Reid, Tomkins, McCartney; Downing, Taylor, Noble, Diamé; Nolan; Carroll.

Injured & Suspended
Sunderland: Fletcher (F, 20 matches, 3 goals), Westwood (G, 10, 0)
West Ham: Borriello (F, 2, 0), O’Brian (D, 16, 0)

Preview:
The time is running out for Sunderland in the relegation battle and they need to start winning the games at home against the teams from the bottom half of the table if they want to stay in Premiership. It is a fact Sunderland had terrific season in both cup competitions but won’t matter if they get relegated. The Gustavo Poyet’s team lost five of their recent 6 matches in all competitions but kept a clean sheet in the last 5 matches against West Ham. West Ham count in attack on two former Newcastle players, Nolan and Carroll, which will bring extra flair in this match. But we believe the home team will take the points here.

Markets:
At the exchange many layers are cautious to Sunderland but everything else is expected.

[pechelinet]

Manchester United - Bayern München
Pick: AWAY WIN
Stake: 7/10
Odds: 1.5 (Paddy Power)

Analysis:

Head to Head
07-04-10 Manchester United – Bayern 3-2

Probable lineups
Manchester United (4-2-3-1): De Gea – Rafael, Vidic, Jones, Buttner – Giggs, Carick – Valencia, Kagawa, Januzaj - Rooney
Bayern (4-1-4-1): Neuer – Rafinha, Boateng, Martinez, Alaba – Lahm – Robben, Kroos, Schweinsteiger – Ribery - Mandzukic

Injured & Suspended
Manchester United: Van Persie (F, 18 matches, 11 goals), Evra (D, 29, 1), Mata (F, 10, 1)
Bayern: Tiago Alcantara (M, 16, 2), Dante (D, 24, 2)

Preview:
Manchester United got to the quarterfinal mainly because they have been lucky with the draw. Champions League is saving their nightmere season so far, but they can’t have illusions they will go too far in this competition. Chances to beat the European Champions are too small and Bayern have been tremendously good in their two visits in Britain this season. Considering United is missing three important players, anything than away win will be a surprise here.

Markets:
Bayern have been severely decreased in the positioning (89%). The drop after that was everywhere and passed the critical 20%. But around noon the market got balanced after the away win odds are not a value for many bettors.

[pechelinet]

06.04.2014

RNK Split - Istra 1961

Pick: HOME WIN
Stake: 8/10
Country: Croatia, 1. HNL
Odds: 1.62 (Unibet)

Head to Head
29-09-13 Split – Istra 0-1
18-05-13 Split – Istra 0-1
24-11-12 Split – Istra 2-1
22-10-11 Split – Istra 3-1
09-04-11 Split – Istra 2-0

Preview:
Split are in a very good form with 3 victories and a draw (away) in the last 4 matches. They are trying to qualify for Europe. Istra were competitors until recently but are in a bad form with 5 straight defeats.

Markets:
The decreasen of Split was 64% in the positioning and was followed by a drastic drop and unexpected turnovers for such a match.