Wednestay Dec 2. discussions

jw · 12-01-09, 10:39 PM

I like the under 2.5 play ... just can't pull the trigger .. if Barca decide to unleash here they are capable of putting 4 or 5 past Xerez ... don't think they will .. but 2.37 is not enough of a price to take that chance for me

BOL though with this one ...

My early leans ...

Twente - Fenerbahce - Back Twente
Salzburg - Lazio - Back Salzburg
Anderlecht - Dinamo Zagreb - Anderlecht -1
Chesterfield - Crewe - Back Chesterfield

Will probably be on all of these ... the one I want to play but can't figure out just yet is .. :

Hamburger SV - Rapid Wien - Back Rapid Wien .. they won the first leg 3-0 at home .... and travel to Hamburger SV where the home team has not won a home game in its last 6 ... the odds on offer for an away win here are 6.7-6.8 ... those odds are very tempting ... the +1 is only 1.9 ... the draw is 4.3 ... very tempted to do a 1 pt win Rapid Wien and 0.5pt on the draw ... anyone else got an opinion on this game?

**TWEETS** · 12-01-09, 10:45 PM

Like Valencia/Lille to go over 2.5

**diecast** · 12-02-09, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by jw

the one I want to play but can't figure out just yet is .. : Hamburger SV - Rapid Wien - Back Rapid Wien .. they won the first leg 3-0 at home .... and travel to Hamburger SV where the home team has not won a home game in its last 6 ... the odds on offer for an away win here are 6.7-6.8 ... those odds are very tempting ... the +1 is only 1.9 ... the draw is 4.3 ... very tempted to do a 1 pt win Rapid Wien and 0.5pt on the draw ... anyone else got an opinion on this game?

Yea, I've been thinking about this play all day. When I saw the odds on Wien I got a bit excited because on paper they look the part. I just watched as many highlights as i could get my hands on for Hamburg and Rapid's Europa matches and found it a bit shocking. Rapid Wien's defense was woeful against all opposition and Hamburg created a ton of chances but were unlucky to hit the post about 4 times over multiple matches. I really see this now to be a one way win for Hamburg if they keep getting those chances and the away team's defense keeps as is. The only bit of good news for Rapid is Hamburg's striker is out, but they have another with just as many goals this season.

Really wish I could see an early line-up for the Barca match, don't see them putting a first team out with a Deportivo match on the weekend. The -2 would be great, they'll certainly win but probably not by more than 3 which I'll gladly put some money on @1.87.

I also like Hapoel Tel Aviv @ 3.90

jw · 12-02-09, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by diecast

Yea, I've been thinking about this play all day. When I saw the odds on Wien I got a bit excited because on paper they look the part. I just watched as many highlights as i could get my hands on for Hamburg and Rapid's Europa matches and found it a bit shocking. Rapid Wien's defense was woeful against all opposition and Hamburg created a ton of chances but were unlucky to hit the post about 4 times over multiple matches.

Thanks for the input ... might risk just a 1/4 pt at that price then in case they get lucky again .... but will back off my bigger bet ...

**Wilforth** · 12-02-09, 02:34 AM

AEK Athens/Everton OVER 2.5 (+110)

**JohnAnthony** · 12-02-09, 04:08 AM

I also like Hapoel Tel Aviv @ 3.90

I'm Israeli and I strongly suggest you don't. They have almost secured their qualification..

**JohnAnthony** · 12-02-09, 05:08 AM

Yesterday went very well for me, here are my picks so far:

AEK Athens/Everton (O 2.5) @ 2.190 [Trailing Willforth]

Check out Willforth's thread on this, showing some strong supporting stats just like I presented you yesterday on Milwall & MK.

Anderlecht (-1) vs Dinamo Zagreb @ 2.080

I like Anderlecht to take this one easily and dismantle hopeless Dianmo at home.

Manchester City vs Arsenal (+0) @ 3.050

The media is all over City, dissing Arsenal. I don't think the game is one-sided to that extent..hopefully Wenger will put up some veterans after all and try to save at least SOMETHING this season. I like this bet, this bet is mine..

BOL!

**StevieM** · 12-02-09, 05:56 AM

I been watching Barca too, their away record recently is average but they've hardly been conceding any.

21-Nov-2009 Spanish First Division Athletic Bilbao 1 - 1 Barcelona
04-Nov-2009 Champions League Group F Rubin Kazan 0 - 0 Barcelona
31-Oct-2009 Spanish First Division Osasuna 1 - 1 Barcelona
17-Oct-2009 Spanish First Division Valencia 0 - 0 Barcelona
26-Sep-2009 Spanish First Division Malaga 0 - 2 Barcelona
22-Sep-2009 Spanish First Division Racing Santander 1 - 4 Barcelona
16-Sep-2009 Champions League Group F Inter Milan 0 - 0 Barcelona
12-Sep-2009 Spanish First Division Getafe 0 - 2 Barcelona

I've been following a guy called 'The Joker' on betting.betfair.com (free btw) since about the start of September and he's pretty good (can't give you any stats before you ask but his archive is freely available) The Joker gives a single bet out every week day & he's lost the last 3 bets which in my mind means he's due a win, he's gone for Barcelona to keep a clean sheet at about -120, seems about as good a value as you're going to get out of this game, as I expect the Joker's run to end I also expect Barca to end their streak of draws and they start that by not conceding.

I agree with above, under 2.5 seems a good bet but if a couple go in in the first half and play gets stretched a little it could turn into a mauling...

Good luck

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 07:13 AM

i like these today any opinions are welcome

Red Bull Salzburg vs Lazio Draw +240
FC Twente vs Fenerbahce Draw +245
Sheriff Tiraspol vs Steaua Bucuresti Draw +250
Bate Borisov vs Benfica Draw +264
AEK Athens vs Everton Draw +245
Valencia vs OSC Lille Draw +277

Levski Sofia vs CF Villarreal Draw +250

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 07:17 AM

Wager type : Round Robin with 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, 6's
Select #1 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (Red Bull Salzburg vs SS Lazio Roma) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #2 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Twente Enschede vs Fenerbahce) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #3 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Sheriff Tiraspol vs Steaua Bucuresti) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #4 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Bate Borisov vs Benfica Lissabon) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +225 for Game
Select #5 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (AEK Athen vs Everton FC) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #6 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (CF Valencia vs OSC Lille) 12/2/2009 3:05 PM - (EST)
Money Line +240 for Game
Amount : Risking 114.00 To Win 10,673.38 USD

Wager type : Round Robin with 2's, 3's, 4's, 5's, 6's
Select #1 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (Red Bull Salzburg vs SS Lazio Roma) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #2 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (Levski Sofia vs CF Villarreal) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +250 for Game
Select #3 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Twente Enschede vs Fenerbahce) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #4 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Sheriff Tiraspol vs Steaua Bucuresti) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #5 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Bate Borisov vs Benfica Lissabon) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +225 for Game
Select #6 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (AEK Athen vs Everton FC) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #7 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (CF Valencia vs OSC Lille) 12/2/2009 3:05 PM - (EST)
Money Line +240 for Game
Amount : Risking 238.00 To Win 41,063.54 USD

Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (Red Bull Salzburg vs SS Lazio Roma) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #2 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (Levski Sofia vs CF Villarreal) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +250 for Game
Select #3 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Twente Enschede vs Fenerbahce) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +215 for Game
Select #4 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Sheriff Tiraspol vs Steaua Bucuresti) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #5 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (FC Bate Borisov vs Benfica Lissabon) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +225 for Game
Select #6 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (AEK Athen vs Everton FC) 12/2/2009 1:00 PM - (EST)
Money Line +210 for Game
Select #7 : Euro Cups Soccer
Draw (CF Valencia vs OSC Lille) 12/2/2009 3:05 PM - (EST)
Money Line +240 for Game
Amount : Risking 25.00 To Win 25,000.00 USD

**LinWin** · 12-02-09, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by StevieM

I agree with above, under 2.5 seems a good bet but if a couple go in in the first half and play gets stretched a little it could turn into a mauling...

Good luck

There's always a risk :-) But I don't see the motivation for Barcelona here, they are saving energy for more important matches. But of course if Xerez scores early on, we are doomed..

**LinWin** · 12-02-09, 08:51 AM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

Yesterday went very well for me, here are my picks so far:

Manchester City vs Arsenal (+0) @ 3.050

The media is all over City, dissing Arsenal. I don't think the game is one-sided to that extent..hopefully Wenger will put up some veterans after all and try to save at least SOMETHING this season. I like this bet, this bet is mine..

BOL!

I have the opposite view :-) The reports are that City will have an almost full strength squad, while Arsenal couldn't care less about this match.
City to win @ 1.85

Good luck

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 09:16 AM

i like man city here i think they finally break their streak of draws and should look to take the w over as well

**Wilforth** · 12-02-09, 09:27 AM

I agree with City. They'll be fielding a strong team against Arsenal's teenagers. I think City ML and Over will both cash.

**Phillth** · 12-02-09, 09:49 AM

half of arsenals squad today will be under the age of 20

**diecast** · 12-02-09, 10:19 AM

Originally posted by demize21

draw
draw
draw
......

you should have just given me the money instead of handing it over to the bookies like that.

Arsenal released the team sheet already, strong squad. I'd put money on Arsenal scoring first through vela/rosicky/merida but don't think they'll win it.

BL · 12-02-09, 10:30 AM

well here's my wednesday soccer parlay

risk 50 to win 974

**TurkzZ** · 12-02-09, 10:33 AM

BOL bl, Looks good

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 10:57 AM

Originally posted by diecast

you should have just given me the money instead of handing it over to the bookies like that.

Arsenal released the team sheet already, strong squad. I'd put money on Arsenal scoring first through vela/rosicky/merida but don't think they'll win it.

i take enough of there money its good to give back once and a while and in my opinion i don't see how more than not will hit give reasons why they are bad than you can post Ur negative comments

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by BL

well here's my wednesday soccer parlay

risk 50 to win 974

does look pretty solid ill tail that one

**Euphoria38** · 12-02-09, 10:58 AM

Man City FTW

**griffdog** · 12-02-09, 11:09 AM

My soccer plays for today:

English Conference: Luton Town/Kettering DRAW 3.28 (Risk $27.50/Win 62.70)

Europa League: Salzburg/Lazio DRAW 3.03 (Risk 27.50/Win 55.82)

Europa League: Sheriff/Steaua DRAW 3.06 (Risk 27.50/Win 56.65)

Europa League: Twente/Fenerbahce DRAW 3.13 (Risk 27.50/Win 58.58)

Good luck all!

**demize21** · 12-02-09, 11:26 AM

like the draws

**diecast** · 12-02-09, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by demize21

i take enough of there money its good to give back once and a while and in my opinion i don't see how more than not will hit give reasons why they are bad than you can post Ur negative comments

sorry man, good luck.

BL · 12-02-09, 01:41 PM

anyone took the UNDER in every game?

**pokerpro44** · 12-02-09, 01:43 PM

ill give manchester city a try.

jw · 12-02-09, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by BL

anyone took the UNDER in every game?

nope - but unlike the last few European nights I've not taken any overs ...

**Wilforth** · 12-02-09, 01:47 PM

It's like all the games will go Under!

**JohnAnthony** · 12-02-09, 02:06 PM

Hopefully Zalsburg will extend lead over angry and frustrated Lazio!

jw · 12-02-09, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

It's like all the games will go Under!

Not sure how Twente have not scored 4 or 5 yet ....

So many good chances missed so far in this one.

**diecast** · 12-02-09, 02:31 PM

a bit surprised at PSG's comeback, they're really opening things up now.. 4-1

**diecast** · 12-02-09, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by JohnAnthony

I'm Israeli and I strongly suggest you don't. They have almost secured their qualification..

thanks for the tip... i stayed away, after thinking about it i knew celtic wanted it more. they are 2-0 up now.

**LinWin** · 12-02-09, 05:08 PM

Ok, so Barca got their goal. No need to score more now, thank you

**LinWin** · 12-02-09, 05:50 PM

Xerez - Barcelona 0-2 FT