1 Play I like Friday

[TWEETS]

Holland

Hercales +265

[Wilforth]

You've effectively canceled my Friday "One soccer pick" thread. It was just what I wanted to post. True.

In addition, I like:

Belgium: AA Gent +130
Ireland: Shamrock Rovers +135

[Wilforth]

Holland

Hercales +265

Heracles +265

To elaborate more on this pick, here are the facts:

Heracles travel to Groningen. We're essentially getting this generous price on Heracles because they're the road team. Some notes:

1) Heracles rank 6th (out of 18) in the league, while Groningen ranks 16th. So Heracles sit 10 places and 12 points above Groningen.
2) Now here is the interesting stuff: Heracles are the 3rd best road team in the league with a magnificent road record. They're 4-1-1 in their 6 road games, scoring 6 goals while conceding a grand total of one! On the flip side, Groningen is among the 2 worst home teams in the league with a 1-1-4 home record. They've scored a grand total of 2 goals in 6 home games while conceding 7. You got the point? A 4-1-1 road team with a +5 road goal difference is a +265 dog to a 1-1-4 home team with a -5 home goal difference. Heracles +265 is the definition of value. Let's jump on it and start the weekend in grand fashion.

[Phillth]

Whoa that looks fishy. Is there news or something? What was the opener?

[Wilforth]

Whoa that looks fishy. Is there news or something? What was the opener?

No, it's not fishy at all. The line is most probably based on history. It's just like in Italy where Roma still enjoys the respect of bookmakers. Groningen in the past were a much better side than they are right now. Bookmakers are still giving them some historical respect. To add some flavor to this play, the road team is 3-1-1 in the L5 meetings. And in this case, the road is the better team both offensively and defensively. I fear that the lines will drop significantly before gametime. Heracles have kept clean sheets in 5 of their 6 road games and the trend should continue here against Groningen's epileptic offense.

[Phillth]

ok ima use it in a parlay for half a unit.

[Phillth]

Scratch that. Im gonna have small stakes parlay fun with this one.

Man City ML
Chelsea ML
Eindhoven/Veendam Over
Heracles ML

170 to win 2570

[Wilforth]

I wouldn't do Chelsea ML. That game could end in a draw. Despite their current travails, I doubt that Man Utd will lose 2 straight games against the top 4. Plus, Chelsea (and Liverpool and Burnley) have now gone 11 league games without a draw. I think they'll draw one game soon. Going 12 games without a draw in the EPL will defy statistics.
I'd replace Chelsea with Blackburn as the ML for both are the same. Blackburn at home should be able to handle Portsmouth.

[mantorras77]

Holland

Hercales +265

my system picks them as well...but I will place the safe bet and go with DNB @ +140

[Phillth]

Well since the big match is on sunday ill hope for the other 3 to hit then hedge on the chelsea/man u draw to win back original stakes. and if man u win, fuvk it. only down half a unit. i have a good feeling about chelsea though.

[Wilforth]

TBH, I have a good feeling about Chelsea too, but going 12 games without a draw is quite "unEPLish". Only Chelsea, Liverpool and Burnley are without draws right now. I think those 3 aren't far from draws.

[Hybris]

Thanks for sharing guys, I have Notts county ML @1.72, -139 in the FA-cup today.

[Ace_of_Spades]

TBH, I have a good feeling about Chelsea too, but going 12 games without a draw is quite "unEPLish". Only Chelsea, Liverpool and Burnley are without draws right now. I think those 3 aren't far from draws.

I agree, it maybe worth putting something on all 3 games to draw.

[Hybris]

From soccerway:

"
FC Groningen desperately need a win in the Eredivisie match with Heracles Almelo, if they want to find a way out of the relegation zone.
Groningen lost both of their last two matches and are currently in 16th place with only ten points from 12 games. As a result, pressure is mounting on manager Ron Jans, despite the fact that the coach experienced several seasons of relative success at the club.
Heracles are much better off, with twice the amount of points Groningen have and a sixth place at the moment. The Almelo outfit won all of their last three games, including an impressive 3-1 win over FC Utrecht last week.
Groningen won the last meeting with Heracles 2-0, in February this year.
Groningen have a number of injuries to deal with, as Ondrej Svejdik and Petter Andersson are both long-term absentees, while Danny Holla, Mike Zonneveld, Jeffrey Rijsdijk and Tom Hiariej are out for shorter periods of time.
Heracles have no serious injuries to worry about, although Elias Pech, Paddy John and Denis Mangafic are all still unavailable.
The home side are favored to win this match, but the men in green will have to improve their overall performance to do so."
----------------------------------------------------------
I´m having a taste of that Heracles AH +0.5 @1.80, -125. BOL today guys...

[Wilforth]

From soccerway:

"
Groningen won the last meeting with Heracles 2-0, in February this year.

February this year was last season! Things have changed for both teams this season. I doubt Heracles will go to Groningen and lose deliberately simply because Groningen desperately need a win.

[Hybris]

February this year was last season! Things have changed for both teams this season. I doubt Heracles will go to Groningen and lose deliberately simply because Groningen desperately need a win.

I agree, I like Heracles chances here.

[Wilforth]

From soccerway:

"
Groningen won the last meeting with Heracles 2-0, in February this year.

When that game was played last year, Groningen was in 6th position in the league while Heracles was in 15th.

http://soccernet-assets.espn.go.com/preview?id=249672&league=NED.1&cc=5901

Now those positions are reversed. Heracles are in 6th, Groningen are deservedly in 16th.

[BL]

tailing you on Heracles ML +275 !
this play looks nice!

[Stringer Bell]

I parlayed

Vienna/Dorbirn o3 goals
Heracles

7 to win 42

[TWEETS]

Always nice to wake up and see everyone agrees with you.

Thanks for the write-up Wilforth, I was too lazy last night to type any additional. I'm not entirely sure they win, but it is definitely a good value bet at +265

[OperatorX]

I'm on it too, definite good value, thanks kids

[RoagBettor]

Heracles +299 on 5Dimes right now. Hmmm....

[squintz4]

Heracles line is now at +299 on my book. I'm tailing you guys on this one for a small play because it has such good value. BOL to all today.

[JamesBrown]

Liking this as well...I don't often play soccer but I'm tailing today.

[Wilforth]

Liking this as well...I don't often play soccer but I'm tailing today.

Let's hope you'll bring us some luck.

[pitman]

you 2 have convinced me. good luck

[SRBI]

You guys are way too convincing for me to not play this. On it w/ PK/+0.5 @ +110. BOL!

[RoagBettor]

I hate when everyone is on the same play, but I'm on it too.

[TWEETS]

I'm going to feel bad if they lay an egg.

[CollegePro]

wow... so many people like them today huh.... this is bad sign but GL guys... I will skip.

[OperatorX]

you know, we may not all win this bet today, but I just want you guys to know that in my book, you are all winners.

[SRBI]

It's not like the bookies are watching the forum to see who we're playing LOL I didn't find any other cappers on this play either from several forums. So lets see what happens...

BTW: How does one give/receive SBR points?
I keep seeing that little gold coin icon on some peoples posts but I cannot figure out where you can do that?

[OperatorX]

you just click on there coin and donate watch I will give you some.

[TWEETS]

Lineups look good, it looks like Gronigen is resting a couple of their better goal scorers.

[Carson05]

hope heracles comes through for you guys