Pavy's Plays 10/17 to 10/19

**Vreston** · 10-16-09, 06:30 PM

BOL Pavy!

**TurkzZ** · 10-16-09, 09:27 PM

BOL PAVYYYY

**losturmarbles** · 10-16-09, 10:36 PM

good luck pavy

avoid the round robin with 2's though.

i did a quick analysis of the payouts if you do.

say you had $60 to risk on round robins for these teams, compare the outcomes:

round robin 2's of 4 teams @ +250
6 bets X $10 ($60)
number of loses/net outcome
0/675
1/307.5
2/62.5
3/-60
4/-60

4 straight bets @ +250 for $15 each ($60)
number of loses/net outcome
0/150
1/97.5
2/45
3/-7.5
4/-60

if you go 2-2, you only win slightly more than straight betting, if you go 1-3 you lose everything, while straight betting you would only be down 12.5% of your risk amount.

the payoff comes from hitting 3/4 or 4/4, so really the only time you should do round robins are when they exclude 1 option out of a full parlay. lower the total risk to whatever you are comfortable throwing away. and if you like the individual picks you should be betting them straight. (which you are on 2 of them i think)

round robin 3's
4 bets X $5 ($20)
number of loses/net outcome
0/837.5
1/194.38
2/-20
3/-20
4/-20

**pavyracer** · 10-16-09, 11:24 PM

Thanks losturmarbles for the breakdown. I guess I'm more of a high risk high reward bettor.

Adding this play:

Aston Villa/Chelsea under 2.5 -120

A few words about this bet as well as the Aston Villa +0.5. Villa hasn't lost to Chelsea at home for the last 10 years before losing last year 1-0. The games have been low scoring with 0 or 1 goals and occasionally 2. #1 goalie of Chelsea is returning from suspension and both defenses are solid. I don't foresee coaches risking and playing an open game.

**smitch124** · 10-17-09, 01:29 AM

Get em Pavy!

**Ace_of_Spades** · 10-17-09, 01:35 AM

Good Luck pavy, some good points about that Villa match. Villa must be very switched on with the likes of Anelka and Drogba. They have been playing really well as a partnership. A draw in that match would be my call and it wouldn't be a bad thing for Chelsea, though i'm sure Carlo would rather all 3 to create more of a gap between united obviously.

**Vreston** · 10-17-09, 09:16 AM

Sunderland is already looking good even though it's early. They opened the score from the first minutes. I wanted to put them in a system bet I played but scratched them last minute and added Seville in their place. We'll see if I did the right thing.

You were absolutely right about Aston Villa.
You didn't need the under though! Too bad. Even though your thoughts on why it would've been an under were sound.