Help Me Decide My Two Big Bets

[tbill11]

Alright, I want only two big bets today, and both on soccer. Therefore I'm enlisting the help of some of the greatest soccer cappers to help me figure where I should lay my money. Here are my leans so far:

Atletico/Real Madrid Parlay +142

Although I don't like putting big bets on parlays, this one seems pretty tasty. Atletico really shouldn't lose this match, or else somebody's gonna be in big trouble. Same goes for Real. Barca already won so the pressure's on Madrid to not fall behind, and they should be looking to avenge their home loss against Villarreal last season.

Tottenham -143

Spurs looked good against Chelsea, despite the loss. I think that they have something to prove in Cup play, as they still aren't considered a top Premiership team. Only thing stopping me from pulling the trigger here is Preston's solid home form and the fact that Lennon will not be starting.

Man U/Chelsea/Man City Parlay

Again, don't like laying money on a parlay, but favorites ruled cup yesterday, and these three should win without a problem. This isn't really my favorite though, and I probably won't pick this.

Valencia PK -147
Valencia is a premiere squad, whereas Getafe is not. I think that this one should be an easy Valencia win, but I'd take the PK just in case.


What do you all think? I need to narrow this down by 11, so let's get some ideas rolling!

[INVINCIBLE]

If I had to choose from these I'd pic the English Three or Tottenham.
bol

[Wilforth]

Notes:

1) I wouldn't touch Carlings Cup games. Those games can go anyway depending on which team needs it more.
2) The quality gap between Atletico Madrid and Almeria isn't as high as the lines may suggest.
3) While one may fancy Valencia at Getafe, there's no question as to which team has the better defense. Getafe has the better defense and that should be a real worry.

Your best pick of all is Real Madrid. If I were to parlay Madrid with anything else, it'll be Deportivo La Coruna PK -135. I don't see Xerex getting a win against Deportivo, irrespective of the venue of the game.

[tbill11]

What about parlaying Madrid with Inter Milan? Napoli has been dreadful on the road so far this year and Inter should have no problem disposing of them, likely by more than one goal. The lines at -230 right now, so parlaying it with Madrid would yield a respectable payout

[tbill11]

Actually, the Real Madrid line is only -150, so I think I'm just going to pound Madrid on their own.

Maybe also parlay Inter and Atletico?

[Wilforth]

Madrid/Inter parlay is sensible by any measure. You know you're investing in teams that both have the ability to win and do need the win. Villareal can't withstand Real. Napoli have no reason to win at Inter. Should you go by that parlay, BOL.

[tbill11]

I don't really like the movement on Madrid, but I think what's happening is that the suckers are betting Villarreal because they know that they are a similar quality team in a normal year. This is not that year. Do you know anywhere to see consensus for football betting?

[Wilforth]

The interesting about the Real game is that Real are now being coached by the immediate past coach of Villareal. So that even gives an edge to Real.

[Karayilan9]

TBill be careful with Real Madrid, they have played very weak sides so far and struggled against them, most of their goals have come in the last 10 minutes of games and it has mostly been due to the opponents tired defenses and acts of individual brilliance by Ronaldo. Their defense leaves big question marks and so far only Ronaldo out of the big stars has been living up to his name. Villareal had a poor start to the season but are far stronger than all the teams Real have played so far. This is Real Madrids first test, a tricky road game against one of the leagues stronger sides. I have taken Real Madrid in their past games but have not been impressed with their performances even though they won. This game is likely to go Over and is open to a surprise, the Real line is bad value. Real definately have the ability to win but this isn't as easy as the line makes out.

Tottenham have a good record in the Carling Cup, out of the English sides Tottenham and Man City are most likely to take the games most seriously as they are not in a European competition and want some silverware, especially Man City! Fulham are poor on the road and are in too many competitions and have too small a squad to field strong line-ups in all these games so out of the English sides I like Man City most. Man U and Chelsea at home should win even if they played their reserves, Aston Villa is likely to win but don't take this cup too seriously.

I like Atletico Madrid tonight and later Palmeiras -0 in Brazil.

I'll do a parlay or Man U, Chelsea, Everton, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Man City for something small aswel.

[Wilforth]

Notes:


2) The quality gap between Atletico Madrid and Almeria isn't as high as the lines may suggest.

Your best pick of all is Real Madrid. If I were to parlay Madrid with anything else, it'll be Deportivo La Coruna PK -135. I don't see Xerex getting a win against Deportivo, irrespective of the venue of the game.

What did I tell you???

[tbill11]

Very true, Atletico looks terrible. That 89th minute goal should have happened much earlier. I will be either fading or no-playing Atletico games until further notice.

At least Real cashed the ticket for me.