One soccer pick - Sep 22

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-21-09, 06:26 PM

I wish you luck, I havent got that play, but Reggina doesnt look interested in going back up to Serie A for next season.
I have a couple small plays already booked for tomorrow in Belgium:
St. Truiden pk(-123)
St. Truiden ML(+153)(smaller play)
What is your take friend?

**Wilforth** · 09-21-09, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by Dashwood Clipper

I wish you luck, I havent got that play, but Reggina doesnt look interested in going back up to Serie A for next season.
I have a couple small plays already booked for tomorrow in Belgium:
St. Truiden pk(-123)
St. Truiden ML(+153)(smaller play)
What is your take friend?

Technically speaking, St. Truiden ML looks like a gift. St Truiden are the better team at both ends of the pitch. If you ask for my realistic prediction for that game, I'd say a 3-1 win for St Truiden. My only fear for that game is that it is the ONLY game in the Belgian League tomorrow. Taking the favorite in the ONLY game in any league always scares me to death. That's the only reason I'm staying away from that game.

One other pick I'm considering is Barcelona -1.5 (-130).
Reason: Barcelona is on the road at Racing Santander. The interesting thing about Santander is that they have what you might consider a reverse home/road split. They play better on the road than at home. It's not surprising that in their only home game so far, they conceded a whopping 4 goals against a low-scoring Getafe. If Barca take their regular troops to Santander, I expect them to score a minimum of 3 goals against Santander while conceding no more than one goal.

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-21-09, 07:01 PM

Good stuff.
Nothing is a gift, thats why I went bigger on the pk, as I dont foresee a loss, but we know that anything can happen.
I do like the Frosinone more as a pk, as it looks as though Reggina seem to perform better on the road. Also, Frosinone is coming in off their first loss. How will they react following a loss in which they were rather thoroughly beaten?

**Wilforth** · 09-21-09, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by Dashwood Clipper

I wish you luck, I havent got that play, but Reggina doesnt look interested in going back up to Serie A for next season.
I have a couple small plays already booked for tomorrow in Belgium:
St. Truiden pk(-123)
St. Truiden ML(+153)(smaller play)
What is your take friend?

On a general note, the value plays I'm looking at between now and 09/27 are:

Argentina: Arsenal Di Serandi +150 @ Chacarita
EPL: Everton +100 @ the retarded Portsmouth
Germany: Franfurt +175 @ home against a faded Stuttgart
Turkey: Trabzonspor +140 @ Genclerbirligi
Sweden: Kalmar +160 @ Hacken

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-21-09, 07:20 PM

I will keep my eyes on those. I have been looking for a spot to back Portsmouth for at least a draw, but they look awful. I wish they could be sent down already.

**InThisMoment** · 09-21-09, 07:25 PM

Good luck. Like the analysis.

Pompey looks like they will put up a WBA/Derry City type record this year.

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-21-09, 07:37 PM

I like:
Birmingham City/Bolton Draw
Sunderland ML
Everton ML
Tottenham/Burnley UNDER 2.5/3
Just leans as of now
By Friday I will have my plays booked.

**Outkast81** · 09-22-09, 09:35 AM

Good picks Wil. I think there is some value in West Ham DNB (+130), and also like Sunderland ML (-135). I may throw those two and St. Truidense on a small parlay togather.

**CollegePro** · 09-22-09, 09:45 AM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Technically speaking, St. Truiden ML looks like a gift. St Truiden are the better team at both ends of the pitch. If you ask for my realistic prediction for that game, I'd say a 3-1 win for St Truiden. My only fear for that game is that it is the ONLY game in the Belgian League tomorrow. Taking the favorite in the ONLY game in any league always scares me to death. That's the only reason I'm staying away from that game.

One other pick I'm considering is Barcelona -1.5 (-130).
Reason: Barcelona is on the road at Racing Santander. The interesting thing about Santander is that they have what you might consider a reverse home/road split. They play better on the road than at home. It's not surprising that in their only home game so far, they conceded a whopping 4 goals against a low-scoring Getafe. If Barca take their regular troops to Santander, I expect them to score a minimum of 3 goals against Santander while conceding no more than one goal.

I just saw pretty much same reasoning on Barcelona game in the other forum. Shouldn't it be safer to play over 3 instead of Barcelona -1.5?? if you think Santander can score 1, you will at least push your bet if Barcelona score 2. But with -1.5 spread, you will be a loser with 1-2 final score. I might play over 3. GL!

**Hybris** · 09-22-09, 10:27 AM

I dont like that Kalmar bet very much, Häcken may have been brought back on to earth after a nice rush for some matches but at home they are very hard to beat and Kalmar havent been that good lately. you can really see that they miss Rasmus Elm and even though they have some very nice players they just seem to have given up on that gold and I dont blame them. Good luck to you anyway, I´ll stay away from this match.

Like your bets today and I will be playing Frosinone DnB and Barcelona -1.5.

**Hybris** · 09-22-09, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by CollegePro

I just saw pretty much same reasoning on Barcelona game in the other forum. Shouldn't it be safer to play over 3 instead of Barcelona -1.5?? if you think Santander can score 1, you will at least push your bet if Barcelona score 2. But with -1.5 spread, you will be a loser with 1-2 final score. I might play over 3. GL!

Then 0-2 always gets there

I Dont like the price for over 2.5 goals, its to low.

**bigdog3580** · 09-22-09, 10:38 AM

Anyone want to wager on some games, I have a thread in SBR POINTS called "Tuesday Soccer Action Wager Your Coins!!"

**pattymayo** · 09-22-09, 01:10 PM

I'm on Frosinone +155 for a small play... thanks for the heads up.

**pattymayo** · 09-22-09, 01:16 PM

Originally posted by Dashwood Clipper

I wish you luck, I havent got that play, but Reggina doesnt look interested in going back up to Serie A for next season.
I have a couple small plays already booked for tomorrow in Belgium:
St. Truiden pk(-123)
St. Truiden ML(+153)(smaller play)
What is your take friend?

Tailing you here... looks too good to be true, but I want action this afternoon and will take my chances. Small play on St. Truiden +120 (bookmaker)

**pattymayo** · 09-22-09, 02:20 PM

Wow, Genk up 3-0 at halftime! When it looks too good to be true, usually is

Hopefully Frosinone can snatch up three points and let me break even this afternoon.

**RoagBettor** · 09-22-09, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Italy Serie B: Frosinone +155

We're getting this generous line on Frosinone because they're playing against Reggina, which was demoted last year from Serie A. The bookmakers' assumption is that Reggina are a better team simply because they have the experience of having played in Serie A. However, the current record of both teams speaks a better truth than what bookmakers want to impress on us. Frosinone are 3-1-1 in their L5 while Reggina are 1-3-1 in the same interval. While that record may be too limited for an objective comparison, I'll always go with a home team at +155 which has a 60% win rate over a team which only boasts of a 20% win rate.

Comments appreciated.

Thanks for the pick Wil - great capping!

**Hybris** · 09-22-09, 03:59 PM

Nice capping right there on Frosinone, Wilforth

**Dashwood Clipper** · 09-22-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Italy Serie B: Frosinone +155

We're getting this generous line on Frosinone because they're playing against Reggina, which was demoted last year from Serie A. The bookmakers' assumption is that Reggina are a better team simply because they have the experience of having played in Serie A. However, the current record of both teams speaks a better truth than what bookmakers want to impress on us. Frosinone are 3-1-1 in their L5 while Reggina are 1-3-1 in the same interval. While that record may be too limited for an objective comparison, I'll always go with a home team at +155 which has a 60% win rate over a team which only boasts of a 20% win rate.

Comments appreciated.

Great call, glad to see at least you cashed