Twente has the best home record in the league. Willem II is near the bottom for road records.
L7 Eredivisie games, most recent first:
Twente at home: 3-0; 3-1; 3-0; 5-1; 2-0; 7-1; 4-0.
Willem II on road: 0-2; 2-2; 1-2; 0-4; 1-2; 0-6; 1-4.
Taking out one highest goals scored, and one lowest goals allowed for each team, this averages to Twente: +2.57 and Willem II -1.86. By this method, Twente has a 4.43 goal edge and should easily cover the spread.
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