2023 Gold Cup Thread

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  • DiamondJack
    SBR MVP
    • 11-13-14
    • 3986

    #1
    2023 Gold Cup Thread
    Qualification for the Gold cup kicks off today and I will post all my Gold cup picks here starting with;




    1. Antigua +1.5 @ 1.80/-125 (1u) Bet365




    This line opened up with what I thought was a fair price of Guadeloupe being favoured at 1.80/-125. Since then the line has plummeted and there is value on Antigua. These sides just recently met in the Nations league where Antigua won both games 1-0 home and away. They won't fear Guadeloupe here and I expect a tight game.
  • DiamondJack
    SBR MVP
    • 11-13-14
    • 3986

    #2
    2. Martinique/St Lucia OVER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365

    Rarely do you see a big favourite priced at -300 have a set total of 2.5 goals. St Lucia are just awful they tied San Marino 1-1 back in the fall. They should get rolled here. I don't expect a 5-4 scoreline like the last time these sides met in Gold Cup qualification but I expect goals. Martinique's last 3 gold cup games all went over with a total of 15 goals scored.
    Comment
    • DiamondJack
      SBR MVP
      • 11-13-14
      • 3986

      #3
      3. St Kitts +1.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Pinnacle




      Backing the dog here purely on a form play. Curacao have only won once in their past 13 games and have failed to score in their last 3. St Kitts have 3 wins and 1 draw in their past 4 games. According to the Fifa Concacaf rankings only 3 teams separate these sides so the true odds here I made at -200 for Curacao.
      Comment
      • DiamondJack
        SBR MVP
        • 11-13-14
        • 3986

        #4
        4. Puerto Rico +2 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Pinnacle



        This play mirrors my St Kitts play from Friday. Backing a dog that is in form having not lost in their last 8 games versus Suriname who only have one win in their past 4 games. Puerto Rico just played Curacao on Tuesday and drew 0-0 a team that is better then Suriname. Both Puerto Rico and Suriname played Guyana recently and Puerto Rico won 2-0 as did Suriname 2-1. There are more Puerto Rican's in central Florida then anywhere in the USA, this will give them a home side edge. Getting 2 goals in pocket on the Asian handicap is the play for me.
        Comment
        • Nate rasta
          SBR MVP
          • 05-30-22
          • 2952

          #5
          I'm looking forward to this tournament. One of my favorite soccer events to wager on
          Comment
          • DiamondJack
            SBR MVP
            • 11-13-14
            • 3986

            #6
            Updated



            3-1 +185
            Comment
            • DiamondJack
              SBR MVP
              • 11-13-14
              • 3986

              #7
              Originally posted by Nate rasta
              I'm looking forward to this tournament. One of my favorite soccer events to wager on
              Comment
              • DiamondJack
                SBR MVP
                • 11-13-14
                • 3986

                #8
                5. Guadeloupe -1 @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Marathon

                Simple play here backing the better side. Guadeloupe looked like the best side in these preliminary games rolling Antigua 5-0 where as Guyana needed PK's to get through Grenada. I had this capped at 1.50/-200. Anyone who is capping these games please know that the French teams (Guadeloupe/Martinique & French Guiana) are not FIFA ranked because they are not members of FIFA only CONCACAF. Please look up world soccer ELO rankings to get a fair picture.
                Comment
                • DiamondJack
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-13-14
                  • 3986

                  #9
                  6. Martinique ML @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Bet365
                  7. Martinique/Puerto Rico OVER 2.5 @ 2.08/+108 (1u) Bet365

                  As with my reasoning with play #2 when Martinique play you have to back the over & getting plus money is good value. These sides have met twice before both wins by Martinique. Puerto Rico is ranked at 172 in the world & Martinique is at 104. The line here should be at 1.80/-125. I expect a 3-1 scoreline in favour of Martinique.
                  Comment
                  • DiamondJack
                    SBR MVP
                    • 11-13-14
                    • 3986

                    #10
                    8. French Guiana ML @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle

                    I'm continuing the trend here of backing all French sides and fading all 3 sides that went the distance to PK's in the Florida heat. French Guiana is ranked 133 where as St Kitts are ranked 161. The last head to head meeting was won by French Guiana 3-1. Looking for a common opponent recently both sides played Trinidad, and St Kitts lost 2-0 where as French Guiana drew 1-1.
                    Comment
                    • DiamondJack
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-13-14
                      • 3986

                      #11
                      9. USA/Jamaica UNDER 2.5 @ 1.90/-111 (1u) Bet365

                      The last 3 head to head encounters between these two sides have all finished under the 2.5 goal total. The United States side will be without their biggest goal threat Pulisic and will field what I call a B+ side. Their two best players for the USA will be their 2 goal keepers; Arsenal's Turner & Chelsea's Slonina. Their biggest goal scoring threat will be Jordan Morris of Seattle. Jamaica on the other hand will be looking at Aston Villa's Bailey for a goal threat. Unfortunately he has only scored 3 goals in 19 games. Going back the last 3 gold cups any close line of 1.60/-167 or higher denoting a close game have gone 28-9 to the Under 2.5 that is more than 75% so over players beware.
                      Comment
                      • DiamondJack
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-13-14
                        • 3986

                        #12
                        Heading into the Group stages



                        5-3 +198
                        Comment
                        • Nate rasta
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-30-22
                          • 2952

                          #13
                          I can't find the Futures anywhere for this Gold Cup? What are they waiting for
                          Comment
                          • DiamondJack
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-13-14
                            • 3986

                            #14
                            10. Trinidad ML @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365





                            St Kitts come into this match on the back of two games going the distance to penalties. I think their luck is due to run out versus a well rested side Trinidad who are unbeaten in their past 6 games. Head to head these sides have met 11 times all have been won by Trinidad scoring 33GF 8GA. Trinidad FIFA ranked 104 St Kitts 139. Elo Ranked Trinidad 111 Vs 159 of St Kitts. I made the line -150 for Trinidad.
                            Comment
                            • DiamondJack
                              SBR MVP
                              • 11-13-14
                              • 3986

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Nate rasta
                              I can't find the Futures anywhere for this Gold Cup? What are they waiting for
                              Yeah I see nothing in any of my books as of yet
                              Comment
                              • DiamondJack
                                SBR MVP
                                • 11-13-14
                                • 3986

                                #16
                                11. Haiti +0.50 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Pinnacle




                                I had this game pegged as a Pk'em to either side with a draw as the most likely outcome. Both sides are ranked 71st in the ELO rankings and have Mexico on tap in the group. I expect a not to lose approach from both teams. Form wise Haiti have won 5 straight where as Qatar have only won 2 of their past 9 games. Qatar look like a world cup hangover team that might just lose outright here.
                                Comment
                                • DiamondJack
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-13-14
                                  • 3986

                                  #17
                                  12. Mexico -1 @ 2.15/+115 (1u) Bet365
                                  13. Mexico Win to nil @ 2.62/+162 (1u) Bet365

                                  Mexico have the most talented side at the gold cup with Canada & the USA resting their Euro stars. The team is at a low point having lost to the USA in the nations league and firing their manager. I'm hoping for a new coach bounce back tournament and I'm buying low on the best side. The last 3 games versus Honduras, Mexico wins 1-0, 3-0 & 3-0. Honduras has been in poor form coming into this game having only 1 win and that was over El Salvador since last September.
                                  Last edited by DiamondJack; 06-22-23, 03:54 PM.
                                  Comment
                                  • DiamondJack
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-13-14
                                    • 3986

                                    #18
                                    14. Martinique +0.5 @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365

                                    I had El Salvador as slight fav's here at +125 so I was surprised at the line here being minus money. Value thus has to go to Martinique. El Salvador has been in very poor form as of late being winless in their past 8 games and having scoring only one goal in their last 5 games. Martinique disposed of Puerto Rico and St Lucia in the qualifiers and I expect them to keep this game close.
                                    Comment
                                    • Tanko
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-19-09
                                      • 5140

                                      #19
                                      Thanks for the plays DiamondJack.
                                      GL
                                      Comment
                                      • DiamondJack
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-13-14
                                        • 3986

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Tanko
                                        Thanks for the plays DiamondJack.
                                        GL
                                        Cheers
                                        Comment
                                        • DiamondJack
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-13-14
                                          • 3986

                                          #21
                                          Finally the books have started to post some futures prices, and the value I see is on Jamaica;

                                          15. Jamaica to win Group A @ 6.00/+500 (1/2u) Bet365
                                          16. Jamaica to win Gold Cup @ 17.00/+1600 (1/2u) Bet365

                                          After analyzing all the squad players named to the gold cup I make Jamaica my dark horse pick to make a run. Do I expect them to win? not really as I think this is Mexico's cup to lose. Jamaica has a 40% chance not to lose its opener vs the USA and if they win or draw the Group A winner has a red carpet route to the final. The odds here for the Reggae Boyz to win group A imply a chance of probability at 16%. Jamaica has been to the finals of the gold cup and lost in 2015 & 2017 to USA & Mexico. I'm hoping Heimir Hallgrimsson the Jamaica manager who brought Iceland to the World cup can lead the boyz to some silverware.
                                          Comment
                                          • DiamondJack
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-13-14
                                            • 3986

                                            #22
                                            Updated after Sun June 25



                                            10-3 +832 Units
                                            Last edited by DiamondJack; 06-25-23, 09:51 PM.
                                            Comment
                                            • Headsterx
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-03-16
                                              • 22747

                                              #23
                                              Excellent! Thanks for the winners!
                                              Comment
                                              • DiamondJack
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-13-14
                                                • 3986

                                                #24
                                                17. Costa Rica/Panama UNDER 1.5 @ 2.68/+168 (1u) Pinnacle
                                                18. Costa Rica/Panama to DRAW @ 3.05/+205 (1u) Pinnacle

                                                Both of these sides are co favourites to win their group. I expect a not to lose approach to this match from both sides knowing they have 2 easier opponents on tap. The last 10 head to head games going back to 2017, 8 games had 1 goal or less in the game. I'm expecting a low scoring encounter between these close rivals in the Florida heat.
                                                Comment
                                                • DiamondJack
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 11-13-14
                                                  • 3986

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Headsterx
                                                  Excellent! Thanks for the winners!
                                                  Cheers
                                                  Comment
                                                  • DiamondJack
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-13-14
                                                    • 3986

                                                    #26
                                                    19. USA/St Kitts UNDER 5.5 @ 2.00/+100 (1u) Bet365

                                                    One has to go back almost 20 years and almost 100 games played the last time St Kitts lost by more then 5 goals and that was back at the Azteca in Mexico to a very good Mexico squad. Here they face a USA B team with little attacking threats. I almost put 2 units on this total and if the price is right I might just add another or play the Under 6 if that's where the odds shift. St Kitts in 2018 lost only 1-0 to Canada and 3-1 to Jamaica. Thinking 3 or 4 nil to the Yanks.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 19th Hole
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-22-09
                                                      • 18920

                                                      #27
                                                      Diamond Jack-
                                                      Well Done!!

                                                      Keep the wheels rolling forward!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • DiamondJack
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-13-14
                                                        • 3986

                                                        #28
                                                        20. Cuba +1.25 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365
                                                        21. Cuba/Guatemala UNDER 1.5 @ 2.88/+188 (1u) Unibet

                                                        The last three times these sides in the past 5 years were in Guatemala or on a neutral field. All three results were 1-0 wins for Guatemala. This game being played in Florida might as well be home field for Cuba. Only 1 of the past 5 games for each side went over 2 goals. This game has the familiar 1-0 scoreline to Guatemala or a 0-0 result. Either way it being the opening game for both sides and with Canada in the group, this will be a not to lose approach tight match from both sides.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Headsterx
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 12-03-16
                                                          • 22747

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by DiamondJack
                                                          17. Costa Rica/Panama UNDER 1.5 @ 2.68/+168 (1u) Pinnacle
                                                          18. Costa Rica/Panama to DRAW @ 3.05/+205 (1u) Pinnacle

                                                          Both of these sides are co favourites to win their group. I expect a not to lose approach to this match from both sides knowing they have 2 easier opponents on tap. The last 10 head to head games going back to 2017, 8 games had 1 goal or less in the game. I'm expecting a low scoring encounter between these close rivals in the Florida heat.
                                                          I like this under play. Let's hit this!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • DiamondJack
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 11-13-14
                                                            • 3986

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by 19th Hole
                                                            Diamond Jack-
                                                            Well Done!!

                                                            Keep the wheels rolling forward!
                                                            Cheers
                                                            Comment
                                                            • DiamondJack
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-13-14
                                                              • 3986

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Headsterx
                                                              I like this under play. Let's hit this!
                                                              We have yet to have a game go below 1.5 goals in the gold cup, lets hope its due and this is the first
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DiamondJack
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 11-13-14
                                                                • 3986

                                                                #32
                                                                22. Canada/Guadeloupe UNDER 3 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Bet365
                                                                23. Guadeloupe +2.25 @ 1.88/-114 (1u) Bet365

                                                                I was hoping and waiting to get a better price on the visitors here, but I think this is the best the odds will get. Canada is missing David, Larin, Davies, Buchanan, Johnstone, Kone etc. This is Canada's B- team. The weather for the game in Toronto calls for thunder and downpours, always benefiting the underdog. The only time Canada played Guadeloupe they lost 2-1 and won 1-0 in a game where they were a man up since the 4th minute and were awarded a game winning PK. The visitors keep this close.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Optional
                                                                  Administrator
                                                                  • 06-10-10
                                                                  • 61089

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Headsterx

                                                                  I like this under play. Let's hit this!
                                                                  I think we mushed him Headster!

                                                                  DJ logic seemed very sound to me too.
                                                                  .
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • DiamondJack
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 11-13-14
                                                                    • 3986

                                                                    #34
                                                                    24. Trinidad +1.25 @ 1.85/-117 (1u) Bet365

                                                                    These sides played 2 friendlies in Jamaica in March where Jamaica lost 1-0 & tied 0-0. The line here seems to be an overreaction to the way Jamaica looked versus a poor USA squad. I have 2 futures on Jamaica so that quarter hook matters to me. Form wise T&T are undefeated in their past 7 where as Jamaica are winless in their past 11. I had the line at 1.80/-125 on Jamaica.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Otters27
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 07-14-07
                                                                      • 30749

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Canada wins today?
                                                                      Comment
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