Under normal circumstances I would have had a thread similar to my Euro thread breaking down the teams and games with a sprinkle of a couple of futures. Unfortunately this tournament has been a complete disaster. The hosts Colombia pulled out due to Political unrest & Argentina due to rising covid numbers. Brazil was named as last minute host and some of their players did not want to participate. Playing any future in this tournament is gambling. There is no value on the outright winner Brazil or runner up Argentina. Venezuela recently just announced that 12 of their players tested positive. I plan to take a game by game approach betting wise. The event starts on Sunday June 13 at 5 pm EST with Brazil hosting Venezuela, for obvious reasons I will wait an hour or prior to kick off to make any plays.
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Brazil v Venezuela
The hosts Brazil take on Venezuela who have 5 players out because they tested positive including captain Tomas Rincon. Brazil have won the last head to head fixture 1-0 in the World cup qualifiers in November. Form wise Brazil have won their past 4 games and all were clean sheets. Venezuela have only won once in their past 6 games. There is no value on the ML or the win to Nil or the HT/FT option so I'm getting creative here with correct scores. If you have bet 365 they cover 0-0 as a bore money back offer.
1. Brazil CS 1-0 @ 7.50/+650 (1/4 U) Bet365
2. Brazil CS 2-0 @ 5.50/+450 (1/4 U) Bet365
3. Brazil CS 3-0 @ 5.50/+450 (1/4 U) Bet365
4. Brazil CS 4-0 @ 7.50/+650 (1/4 U) Bet365Comment -
Colombia v Ecuador
I expect the more talented side Colombia here to avenge their 6-1 thumping they suffered in Ecuador back in November during the world cup qualifiers. Colombia beat Peru & tied Argentina this month while Ecuador lost to Peru and Brazil in their 2 June world cup qualifiers. I really like the in form attacking pair Zapata & Muriel who combined for 37 goals and 19 assists playing for Atalanta in Italy. Keeping this one simple;
5. Colombia ML @ 1.93/-107 (2u) PinnacleComment -
Adding
6. Colombia Team Total OVER 1.5 @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Argentina v Chile
These sides just met in a world cup qualifier in Argentina on June 3rd, the result a 1-1 draw with a Messi penalty. Alexis Sanchez is missing due to a foot injury for Chile. I always like to look at a nations away record when it comes to neutral venues. Argentina are undefeated in their past 7 away where as Chile are winless in their past 6. Everything points to a 1-0 result for Argentina but these sides have also been drawing plenty of games lately. In the last 5 head to head encounters between these sides only one has resulted in more than 2 goals scored so;
7. Argentina/Chile UNDER 2 @ 2.05/+105 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Colombia v Venezuela
Colombia come into the match undefeated in their past three where as Venezuela are winless in their past three. The last head to head encounter ended in a 3-0 win for Colombia. I'm surprised that Zapata & Muriel did not start in their opener but they still managed a 1-0 victory. The Venezuela squad still has Covid problems. If Brazil can beat them 3-0 Colombia can do it 2-0.
8. Colombia -1.5 @ 2.30/+130 (1u) Unibet
9. Colombia win to Nil @ 1.95/-105 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Peru v Brazil
This is Peru's opening game at the Copa after having split their two world cup qualifiers in June with a win v Ecuador & a loss to Colombia. Brazil are just on fire lately winning their past 8 games. 7 of those games were won to Nil & 7 of those games were by 2 or more goals. The only team to score against Brazil in that stretch was Peru, final score being 4-2. This game is in Brazil I do not see a close game so;
10. Brazil -1.75 @ 1.91/-110 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Chile V Bolivia
The last 3 times these nations played each other 1-1-1 record. I was very impressed by Bolivia versus Paraguay even though they lost 3-1 it was a tale of 2 halfs. Bolivia were leading 1-0 at the half until going a man down for more than half the game. They are being disrespected by these odds heavily favouring Chile. 8 of the past 9 games for Bolivia have gone over & 5 of the past 9 for Chile have gone over. 2-1 for Chile & I think there is value in the total as well;
11. Bolivia +1.25 @ 2.17/+117 (1u) Pinnacle
12. Chile/Bolivia OVER 2.5 @ 1.74/-135 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Argentina v Uruguay
Uruguay's old guard of Cavani, Suarez, Godin & Caseres will try for perhaps that groups last chance for silverware. Having won the Copa back in 2011. Then there is Messi & Argentina who have not won anything since 1993. I think both sides will be very motivated and I see both advancing out of the group. The last 3 games for Argentina Draws, the last 2 for Uruguay Draws, The last 2 head to head meetings also ended level. Looking to keep the streak going;
13. Argentina/Uruguay to DRAW @ 3.40/+240 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Copa muh titties
First and last bet on the Copa.
Uruguay +340
P.S. (Have some fookin balls m8)Comment -
Venezuela v Ecuador
Ecuador is unbeaten vs Venezuela in their past 5 meetings with 2 wins and 3 draws. Venezuela is still dealing with Covid problems but they did manage to hold Colombia to a 0-0 scoreline. Ecuador just lost to Colombia 1-0. There is no value whatsoever on Ecuador coming in as heavy favorites. Both sides have had 2 of their past 3 go under and I expect a low scoring result;
14. Ecuador/Venezuela Under 2 @ 2.07/+107 (2u) Pinnacle
15. Ecuador/Venezuela to DRAW @ 3.80/+280 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Colombia v Peru
Colombia has started out the Copa with a win versus Ecuador & a draw versus Venezuela. I fully expect them to finish second in the group behind Brazil. Peru has played one game so far and they got smoked 4-0 by Brazil. The last 3 head to meetings, Colombia wins all 3 with scorelines of 3-0,1-0 & 3-0. Colombia has had 3 of their past 4 games with a clean sheet. Peru on the other hand has been held scoreless in 4 of its past 5 games.
16. Colombia win to NIL @ 2.37/+137 (1u) Bet365
17. Colombia -1 @ 2.30/+130 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Uruguay v Chile
I was surprised to see Uruguay at plus money as I had this game pegged at 1.80/-125. The only thing I can find is just recent form that backs Chile. The last 2 head to head fixtures Uruguay wins both 2-1 & 1-0. Uruguay only played one game so far a loss v Argentina and would look at this game as a must win as 4th place in this group most likely will face Brazil.
18. Uruguay ML @ 2.10 (2u) MarathonComment -
Argentina v Paraguay
The past four head to head meetings between these sides have all been 2 or under the goal total. I think Messi here is on a mission in this tournament so I have to back Argentina. There is no value in the ML or the total under 2.5 so lets get creative here;
19. Argentina Win to Nil @ 2.28/+128 (1u) Unibet
20. Argentina/Paraguay UNDER 2 @ 2.13/+113 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Ecuador v Peru
Ecuador will be without arguably their best player Enner Valencia who is suspended. Ecuador come into the game winless in their past 4. Peru have won 2 of 3 with a loss Brazil. Both sides played Colombia, Peru won 2-1 & Ecuador lost 1-0. I have no idea why Ecuador is a favourite in this match have to back Peru at these prices;
21. Peru +0.25 @ 1.84/-119 (2u)Comment -
Brazil v Colombia
Colombia keep costing me money every time I back them, so I'm fading them. There seems to be no stopping the freight train that is Brazil 9 wins in a row 8 of which were to nil. Colombia lost to Peru & could not beat depleted Venezuela. Brazil come into the match with 5 days of rest where as Colombia will be playing their 4th game in 11 days. As usual no value on the ML but there is on;
22. Brazil win to NIL @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Bolivia v Uruguay
Uruguay had had a run of poor form recently being winless in their past 5 games and only scoring 1 goal. Bolivia is missing their main striker Moreno due to covid issues. I do not know who is going to score for them especially facing the Atletico Madrid CB pair of Gimenez & Godin. The Bolivian keeper Carlos Lampe has stood on his head in the first 2 games of the tournament but I think here is where either Suarez or Cavani net one or 2 to win.
23. Bolivia/Uruguay UNDER 2.75 @ 1.99/-101 (1u) Bet365
24. CS 1-0 @ 6.50/+550 (1/2u) Bet365
25. CS 2-0 @ 5.50/+450 (1/2u) Bet365
26. CS 3-0 @ 6.50/+550 (1/2u) Bet365Comment -
Chile v. Paraguay
Chile has already qualified for the next round & Paraguay need a point to do so as well. It looks like Chile will be rotating some of their squad as they come into this match undefeated in their past 7 games. Paraguay will field a side largely unchanged from their last game where they lost 1-0 to Argentina. Chile will still be without Alexis Sanchez. It looks like both nodes here will be playing not to lose so;
27.Chile/Paraguay to DRAW @ 3.05/+205 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Brazil v Ecuador
Brazil have already qualified and locked in top spot in the group. They will rotate their squad but Brazil's B team is just as strong. Brazil have beat Ecuador earlier this month in a world cup qualifier 2-0. Coming into this match Brazil have won 10 straight games 8 of which were to nil. Ecuador are winless in their past 5. I expect a 2-0 result.
28. Brazil win to Nil @ 2.05/+105 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Peru v Venezuela
If Brazil win as expected vs Ecuador both sides here will take a point to benefit each other. Venezuela need a point to advance ahead of Ecuador & Peru with a point will lock in second place ahead of Colombia. The past 3 head to head encounters have ended with a draw. Both teams also tied their last game so hoping that trend continues;
29. Peru/Venezuela to DRAW @ 2.98/+198 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Bolivia v Argentina
Bolivia have already been eliminated and Argentina has already qualified but need the win to top the Group and avoid Colombia in the quarter finals. Argentina come into the match on the back of a 16 game unbeaten streak where as Bolivia are winless in 4. Since Messi, Aguero & Di Maria will start on the bench there is a tad of value on the total here. 2-0 Argentina
30. Argentina/Bolivia UNDER 3.25 @ 1.88/-114 (2u)Comment -
Paraguay v Uruguay
Both sides have already qualified and are playing for positions. Uruguay need a point to avoid 4th place and a date with Brazil, however I do not think they want the win and a date with Colombia. It looks like several players like Godin & Cavani will be rested. The last head to head encounter ended with a 0-0 scoreline & it looks like that to me here;
31. Paraguay/Uruguay to DRAW @ 3.05/+205 (1u) MarathonLast edited by DiamondJack; 06-30-21, 09:48 PM.Comment -
BOL!
Instructive analysis!Comment -
QF - Peru v Paraguay
Peru is not getting any respect by the books, even though they were the runners up in the last Copa America also in Brazil. Head to head Peru has 6 wins and 1 draw versus Paraguay in their last 7 meetings. It is important to note that all knock out rounds are going straight to PKs after the 90 minutes aside from the final. Paraguay have won 2 and lost 2 in the tournament where as Peru lost only once to Brazil. 6 of the past 16 QF at the Copa have ended 0-0 that is 37.5%, playing a prop there as well;
32. Peru PK @2.12/+112 (3u) Marathon
33. Peru to qualify @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Will Hill
34. CS 0-0 @ 6.50/+550 (1/2u) Bet365Last edited by DiamondJack; 06-30-21, 09:48 PM.Comment -
QF - Brazil v Chile
Brazil's 10 game winning streak came to an end after drawing with Ecuador. Resting the likes of Neymar, Gabriel Jesus & Thiago Silva, amongst others in a game that meant nothing to Brazil. They will be well rested and ready to take on Chile a team who have only won 2 games in their past 8 both versus Bolivia. Chile were shut out in their last game with Paraguay and they have failed to score more than 1 goal in the past six games. Brazil have won 8 of their past 11 to nil.
35. Brazil win to Nil @ 2.10/+110 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Colombia v Uruguay
Both teams have drawn 2 of their past 5 matches. Form favours Uruguay having won their past 2 games where as Colombia come into the match losers of 2 straight. I initially liked the under but not at these prices, and also did not like the fact that the last 3 head to head encounters all went over the number. I have a slight lean on Uruguay but the draw seems more likely. The last 3 head to head games all had 6 cards so I like a card prop the best;
36. Colombia/Uruguay Total Cards OVER 4.5 @ 1.78/-128 (1u) Bet365
37. Colombia/Uruguay to DRAW @ 3.10/+210 (1/2u) Bet365Comment -
Argentina v Ecuador
I think the powers that be want that Brazil Argentina final. Ecuador come into the game winless in the past 6 games, where as Argentina are undefeated in their past 17. Ecuador have conceded in their past 12 games. Th last 3 head to head have also been all wins by Argentina. I don't see Ecuador giving Argentina too many problems so I like;
38. Argentina -1 @ 2.30/+130 (1u) Marathon
39. Argentina win to Nil @ 2.50/+150 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Copa is a horrible product...No class, bad refereeing, an abundance of faking. ...bad passing too..Comment -
Brazil v Peru
There does not seem to by anything stopping this Brazil team. They have already played Peru and won 4-0 to kick off the tournament. Brazil will be without Jesus & Peru without Corillo both suspended, the loss here is bigger for Peru as Brazil are just so deep. Brazil have won 8 of their last 12 games by 2 or more goals. Peru are bad at the back giving up 24 goals in their past 11 games. I'm thinking 3-0 3-1 for the home side.
40. Brazil -2 @ 2.14/+114 (1u) PinnacleComment -
Argentina v Colombia
It is practically written in the stars that Messi & Argentina will face Brazil in the final. Colombia would have been normally a worthy opponent however they have struggled recently winners of only 3 games in the past 10. Argentina are unbeaten in their past 18 games scoring 10 goals in the Copa to Colombia's 3. I like Argentina here and just in case Colombia takes this into PK's I'm adding a prop.
41. Argentina ML @ 1.90/-111 (2u) Pinnacle
42. Argentina UNDER 2 @ 2.02/+102 (2u) Pinnacle
43. Method of victory ARG PK\s @ 6.00/+500 (1u) Bet365Comment -
Peru of Colombia is what the fans wanted though.
They call this guy "Serbian Bill Clinton"
Comment -
Peru v Colombia 3rd Place
Ahh, the 3rd place match that is always a required over the goal line play. Both sides should be loose, and at plus money how can you not bet this game over the total. In the past 10 games for both Peru & Colombia 6 have gone over. The past four head to head games 3 have gone over. This seems too easy, so I'm being cautious just placing a pair on;
45. Peru/Colombia OVER 2.5 @ 2.13/+113 (2u) PinnacleComment -
Summed up going into the final
17-24-3 +7.91 1/4 uComment
