EURO 2020 Preview/Futures/Picks

[DiamondJack]

A few weeks to go before the tournament kicks off & I will post my thoughts & how I see things playing out from a betting perspective. The bookies basically have 8 teams that are contenders 6-1 to 12-1 range. 8 that are outsiders, & 8 that are basically pretenders with odds of 100-1 or worse. I will look for value in odds offered in all the futures & props. I will start off with Group A;
1. Italy 3-0-0 6-0 9
2. Turkey 2-0-1 3-3 6
3. Switzerland 0-1-2 1-3 1
4. Wales 0-1-2 0-4 1

[DiamondJack]

Italy
There is no better in form team than Italy heading into the Euros. Italy is undefeated in their past 25 games. Since 2019; 60GF 6GA with 15 clean sheets. They have all their 3 games at home in Rome. I see Italy looking to make up for not making it to the last World Cup in Russia. Italy only won the Euros once back in 1968, could this be their time?. I see them making a deep run, I love the value for Italy to win at 12-1 odds as I see them just as big as a threat as the other favorites just not priced correctly so;
1. Italy to win Euro 2020 @ 12.00/+1100 (1Unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Turkey
Italy is the sole contender in the group, with the Swiss & Turkey being priced as the outsiders. I am backing Turkey to finish second behind Italy. Turkey will be playing 2 games in Baku which will make it like 2 home games versus Wales & the Swiss. I also love Turkeys manager Gunes that was involved in their 3rd place showing back in the 2002 world cup. Turkey have had some impressive results winning versus the Netherlands & Norway. Not much value betting them to advance but I do like;
2. Group forecast 1. Italy 2. Turkey @ 3.60/+260 (1 Unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Switzerland
They will be a tough out in their games. I do not see them being blown out. The Swiss do not have a trustworthy record recently 9-6-6 since 2019. They beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. They are suspect at the back giving up 24 goals while scoring only 38 in the past 21 games. Having to play Turkey in Baku is the tie breaker for me, third place for the Swiss.

[DiamondJack]

Wales
With Ryan Giggs gone after being charged with assault Robert Page takes over the managerial duties at a very bad time. I do not see Wales duplicating a run they had at the last Euros in France. I do see them as the best 200-1 odds pretender but that would be throwing your money away. Daniel James is beat up, Gareth Bale will need to work wonders to qualify from this group. I think the Giggs factor really hurts Wales and I'm placing them last in the group.
3. Wales to finish bottom of group A @ 2.25/+125 (1 unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

To sum up Group A I will play a long shot prop that correlates with Italy going on a deep run. Immobile has scored in 2 of his past 3 starts with Italy in March. He will be also be the primary penalty kick taker. I also like the fact that his 3 group games will be played at his club home stadium where Lazio plays, the Stadio Olmipico in Rome. Its worth a shot at 21-1 odds.
4. Ciro Immobile Euro 2020 Top Scorer @ 21.00/+2000 (1u) Bet365

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Great writeup, Jack. I love the Euros. A few random notes:

1) Italy is invariably the most interesting team for me at a major tournament. And I mean good or bad. Their style has been similar for years, sometimes they look like dinosaurs. Football strategy is so ingrained in the culture. My amateur opinion is that the dropoff from Buffon in net is significant.
2) Switzerland always seem to get results. For me, the wildcard in the group.
3) I like your Wales for bottom prediction. Small country, they had the one good showing at Euros. Otherwise, they always strike me as a team that can field half quality but nothing more than that.

[od120731]

How much England is worth for winning the whole thing? Smells like value

[kostasblues]

Really like Italy here.

[DiamondJack]

Group B
Unlike in group A where the teams have not played each other in more than a decade these teams seem to be familiar with each other. We have one contender, Belgium 2 outsiders, in Denmark & Russia & one debutante pretender Finland. This looks to me to be the highest scoring group and I'm yet to find the odds on that prop. The way I see the group;
1. Belgium 3-0-0 9-2 9
2. Denmark 2-0-1 5-3 6
3. Russia 1-0-2 4-6 3
4. Finland 0-0-3 1-8 0

[DiamondJack]

How much England is worth for winning the whole thing? Smells like value

If ENG win their group, which they should they will play the 2nd in Group F The likes of Germany France or Portugal. If you like England bet them to qualify and then roll over and play to qualify until the end way better value that an outright future.

[DiamondJack]

kostas---
chucky---

[DiamondJack]

Belgium
One of the tournament favourites, the Red Devils should win this group with ease. Recent head to head history has Belgium winning 4-2 & 2-0 versus Denmark and 3-1 & 4-1 versus Russia. Those games were not even close. With a lethal attack familiarity and experience from the World cup run that had them in 3rd place, I think they could win the whole thing. No real value on the future, but I do like them to win their group with ease so;
5. Belgium to win Group B @ 1.72/-139 (1u) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Denmark
The Danes have all their 3 games at home in Copenhagen. Since 2018 they have only lost 1 home game (v BEL) since 2019 overall they only lost 2 games (also vs BEL). They have a 13-2-6 record since 2019. In 2021 they won all 3 of their world cup qualifiers scoring 14 goals while giving up zero. Second place beckons.
6. Group forecast Belgium 1 Denmark 2 @ 2.87/+187 (1 unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Russia
The second outsider Russia will try to show their worth with a 2022 World cup ban looming this might be the only opportunity to shine on the pitch. Russia do benefit from hosting 2 games at home in St Petersburg versus Belgium & Finland. Russia are very suspect at the back. in their last 5 games 2 wins 3 losses 8 GF & 12GA zero clean sheets. Expect goals in Russia games. I like
7. Highest Scoring team Euro 2020- Belgium @ 6.00/+500 (1unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Finland
The Finns have qualified for a major tournament for the first time in their history. They have already won, nothing is expected of this side. Finland even beat France last year but that was a friendly. Form wise they are winless in the past 4 with 2 losses & 2 draws. I do expect them to score a goal or 2 with a really good striker Pukki who has scored 5 in Finland's last 5. The Norwich striker has 66 goals for the club the last 3 years. However I do not see them getting a result thus;
8. Team Exact Group Points ZERO Finland @ 3.00/+200 (1unit) Bet365

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Salud, DJack. My amateur opinion:

*Like the Italian keeper, I think the oversized Belgian Keeper (Courtois) is too big. I prefer athletic keepers who have good reactions.

Just my two cents. At the top-level, it comes home to roost. For inspiration, go watch PSchmeichel performance at the 1992 Euros.

[DiamondJack]

Group C
Arguably the weakest group in the tournament with The Dutch getting 13-1 odds to win it all making them barely a contender. Ukraine barely an outsider where you can still get 100-1 odds followed by 2 pretenders Austria & North Macedonia with odds of 200-1 & 500-1. I will be looking to fade any side that qualifies from this group.
1. Netherlands 3-0-0 7-2 9
2. Austria 1-1-1 4-4 4
3. Ukraine 0-2-1 4-5 2
4. North Macedonia 0-1-2 1-5 1

[DiamondJack]

The 1992 Euros are the first Euros I remember watching....Denmark what a story

[DiamondJack]

Netherlands
Van Dijk has been ruled out of the squad and that will be big when the Dutch get really tested after the group stage. Even without their defensive talisman the Dutch should cruise to the top of this weak group. Form wise they have only won 4 out of their past 10, 2 of those wins vs Latvia & Gibraltar. Having 3 home games also helps and the semis are as far as I would see them achieve. No value here on any futures.

[DiamondJack]

Ukraine
Shevchenko's Ukraine have been absolutely dreadful coming into this tournament winning only once in their past 10 games. The win was impressive versus Spain 1-0 but the leaking of goals 24 against in that time span is a cause for concern. Their trio of world cup qualifiers in March all ended with the same score 1-1. That is impressive versus France not so much so versus Kazakhstan. A difficult team to read, that you might back v Holland but not v Macedonia. No bets for me.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

The 1992 Euros are the first Euros I remember watching....Denmark what a story

Yes! Great story. And the goal-scorers had a story all by themselves:

*Larsen. Scored 3 goals in the tournament. I looked it up, he only had five TOTAL in 39 Denmark caps. NOT the other Henrik Larsson (from Sweden).
*Jensen. He only scored 3 goals in 69 caps. And the goal vs Germany was a hammer-shot.
*Elstrup. The coach played a hunch that Brian Laudrup looked winded and wouldn't be able to make it the whole 90', so he took his top outfield player off. Elstrup runs down the middle, goal on his very 1st touch of the game.
*Vilfort. Scored the capper vs Germany. Really nice goal from range that he banged in off the post. Supposedly, was dealing with a sick child at the time.

[DiamondJack]

Austria
I am putting Austria ahead of Ukraine based on form. Austria since 2019 are 13-5-2. Notable are 2 wins at home and away in the Euro qualifiers versus North Macedonia with 2-1 & 4-1 scorelines. I was contemplating taking the duel forecast with the Netherlands, however at only +130 it was not worth the play considering the unpredictable nature of the Ukrainian side.

[DiamondJack]

North Macedonia
I know they are first time here just like Finland however they have an easier group to get a result. We all know they beat Germany 2-1 in March and they will try to play the spoiler in the group. I will back them to score in all their group matches. Value wise I do like them to snatch a point in the group stage so;
9. North Macedonia Exact Group points 1 @ 3.40/+240 (1 Unit) Bet365

[DiamondJack]

Group D
As in group C here we have one contender England that should have no difficulty topping the group. Croatia sit as odds outsiders largely on their world cup run where they finished 2nd to France. Scotland & The Czechs finish the group that in my opinion is pretty open once you pass England. so lets shake it up;
1. England 2-1-0 5-1 7
2. Scotland 1-2-0 3-2 5
3. Croatia 1-1-1 2-3 4
4. Czech Rep. 0-0-3 0-4 0

[DiamondJack]

England
Is it coming home? perhaps. As usual there is scant value to be found backing the three lions. I think a pylon can lead them to top the group but if they do win the group, the 2nd place from the group of death await them. So you might see them face the likes of Germany/France/Portugal. Having all 3 games at home will be a plus. If you want to back them to win it all, you should bet them to advance and consecutively do so all the way while rolling over your winnings.

[DiamondJack]

Croatia
I think this is a period of decline for Croatia. Their main core is getting old. Modric is 35, Perisic is 32, Lovren 31 and Vida 32. Since 2019 they are 11-9-1 including loses to Tunisia, Hungary, Sweden, Slovenia and an embarrassing 6-0 loss to Spain. They may still qualify from this group but a deep run is unlikely.

[DiamondJack]

Scotland
I am putting the Scots above the Czechs based on 2 reasons. Head to head last year Scotland beat the Czech Republic 2-1 & 1-0 both home and away. Scotland's 2 games versus Croatia & the Czechs will be at home in Glasgow so home advantage is my second reason. I expect a similar result as in the Nations league. Scotland's away fixture will be in London versus England and they will fight tooth and nail not to lose. There is a tad of value in them advancing here so;
10. Scotland to qualify @ 2.50/+150 (1 unit) BetVic

[DiamondJack]

Czech Republic
I have picked the Czech to finish bottom but they could just as well finish second. This is a very hard team to read, losing to Scotland twice and not matching up too well with Croatia places them last, but I will not bet that prop. The last time they played England in London they lost 5-0 back in 2019. Their recent fixtures over the past 2 years suggests this team cannot be trusted away from home. No plays from me.

[DiamondJack]

Group E
A group with one contender in Spain, 2 outsiders Poland & Sweden and 1 pretender Slovakia. Having all three games at home in Seville will be a big advantage for the hosts who should cruise to the top of the group with ease. I do not expect any surprises in this group. Poland & Sweden will battle it out for second and I also expect the 3rd place team here to advance.
1. Spain 3-0-0 6-1 9
2. Poland 1-1-1 5-4 4
3. Sweden 1-1-1 4-4 4
4. Slovakia 0-0-3 1-7 0

[ChuckyTheGoat]

England
Is it coming home? perhaps. As usual there is scant value to be found backing the three lions. I think a pylon can lead them to top the group but if they do win the group, the 2nd place from the group of death await them. So you might see them face the likes of Germany/France/Portugal. Having all 3 games at home will be a plus. If you want to back them to win it all, you should bet them to advance and consecutively do so all the way while rolling over your winnings.

Jack, got a comment for u re: England. I've been listening to Stephen Gerrard's book. Gerrard admitted to how much pressure the English players feel.

The English natl team is a tricky one:
1) They go thru the physical EPL season, which is more grueling than other leagues.
2) They play vs rivals, and then play w/ those guys for ENG. Some players can't mix the rival vs teammate thing.

Anyway, I think it's real that ENG typically under-performs. I think there's a reason for it. Even if the personnel is good enuf, I look elsewhere at major tournaments.

[DiamondJack]

Spain
This is not your golden generation Spain squad. Luis Enriques squad is young and talented but they do lack that superstar upfront, with all due respect to Morata. Surprisingly there in no Real Madrid player named to the squad, not even Sergio Ramos. Who is going to lead this side without their captain?.The past 15 games have seen 7 wins 7 draws and 1 loss to Ukraine of all squads. They will benefit from playing at home in Seville. Topping the group should be easy, a deep run is unlikely IMO. I will fade them in the knock out section of the tournament.

[DiamondJack]

Chucky the same thing was said about Spain with the Real vs Barca rivalry between the players. They could not win for decades until they won 2 Euros & their 1 WC in between. I think they will see their Russia performance as a benefit. I'm going to judge them game by game.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Chucky the same thing was said about Spain with the Real vs Barca rivalry between the players. They could not win for decades until they won 2 Euros & their 1 WC in between. I think they will see their Russia performance as a benefit. I'm going to judge them game by game.

Yeah, very much so. Real vs Barca rivalry. And even worse, the Catalonians really don't want to be Spanish.

Very complicated. International football is about blending the egos.

Best wishes. Hope u have a big tournament.

[DiamondJack]

Sweden
They are without Ibrahimovic who is injured, which leaves 34 year old Berg as the main attacking man up front. Granqvist is in the squad despite being injured. They will battle it out with Poland for second but Lewandowski breaks that tie & Poland finishes ahead of Sweden. Form wise Sweden 11 wins 8 loses and 4 loses since 2019 including a 3-0 loss in Spain to Spain. Sweden should qualify but that is as far as they will go in the tournament. I am trying to find a prop on them to finish 3rd but no book has that offered.