Squirrels nutty-footy thread 09/10

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  • Squirrel
    SBR MVP
    • 06-11-09
    • 1316

    #1
    Squirrels nutty-footy thread 09/10
    OK guys i'm joining the masses for this season. Footie is where ive done all my best work and where this gambling lark began for me. Will post all my picks over the season in this thread and will also use the spreadsheet just for tracking my footy since this is going to be my main gambling focus over the next few months.

    Sometimes Im a little busy capping baseball on a night to spend too much time posting reasons, but if anyone wants to know my thinking behind a pick then feel free to ask and i'll do my best to explain.

    95% of my picks will come from either England (Premier League and Championship) as well as the Eredivisie in Holland and La Liga in Spain. England and Spain being where I usually profit the most. Sometimes the odd Bundesliga or Serie A pick will crop up if there is something I really like.

    Level stakes better, 1 unit on the lot, not interested in posting monetary stakes, its all about the winners after all. Heres to a successful football year for the small band of merrymen who cap football in SBR, lets take the bookies for a ride and clean the ****ers out

    Squirrel
  • ryanspeer2001
    SBR MVP
    • 03-30-08
    • 3149

    #2
    Good Luck I hope to maybe jump on you Footy train if things are going well.
    Comment
    • Smogs
      SBR MVP
      • 12-31-08
      • 4173

      #3
      Now i know your an owls fan, good luck this season, both for your team and your bank. When Boro play Sheff Wed it'll be interesting what stance we have on the game betting wise
      Comment
      • Squirrel
        SBR MVP
        • 06-11-09
        • 1316

        #4
        It's tough betting on the opening day of the season but somehow I can never resist a couple of bets. No action on the championship today until I get a couple of games form to go off. So, premier league opening day I like..

        Stoke v Burnley - Draw +250 (1 unit)
        Always like the promoted teams to get a draw on opening week assuming the fixture isnt brutal. Stoke were solid at home last year but dont score many goals and I think Burnley will be all out defending and doing what they need to not to get off on a losing footing here.

        Blackburn v man City - Over 2.5 Goals +107 (1 unit)
        Think overs on the total goals will be money all season in Man City games, they have all kinds of firepower and will score goals but their backline is going to be exposed so will always concede too, especially away from home. Blackburn were awful defensively last season which should help here if it carries over.

        Portsmouth v Fulham - Full Time 0-0 Draw +850 (0.5 units)

        Speculative effort here. Fulham are always a hard team to break down on the road and I dont think Portsmouth have anywhere close to the firepower needed to do so. Roy Hodgson has got Fulham content to play to their strengths and its easy enough to see them battling and defending their way to avoiding defeat on opening day.

        Portsmouth v Fulham - Under 1.5 Goals +200 (0.5 units)

        See above reasoning, this is just insurance incase somebody gives up a stupid penalty or something.

        3 Units staked, lets play BALL!!
        Comment
        • head_strong
          SBR MVP
          • 07-02-08
          • 4318

          #5
          Originally posted by Squirrel

          Portsmouth v Fulham - Full Time 0-0 Draw +850 (0.5 units)

          Speculative effort here. Fulham are always a hard team to break down on the road and I dont think Portsmouth have anywhere close to the firepower needed to do so. Roy Hodgson has got Fulham content to play to their strengths and its easy enough to see them battling and defending their way to avoiding defeat on opening day.
          How much do you like this bet.....I think I might tail with a price like this.....GL
          Comment
          • Squirrel
            SBR MVP
            • 06-11-09
            • 1316

            #6
            Originally posted by head_strong
            How much do you like this bet.....I think I might tail with a price like this.....GL
            Its VERY speculative as with all correct score bets but the game has got nothingness written all over it. There was no value in the usual under 2.5 goals price, so I did the above and covered 0-0 and 1-0 wins either side
            Comment
            • Johnny Hipster
              SBR Hustler
              • 05-23-09
              • 66

              #7
              For me - all these matches are VERY speculative. Stoke can be 1 0 or 2, Blackburn can be low scoring game or over 2,5.... the only bet which makes any sense for me is Portsmouth - Fulham under 1,5..... still good luck to you Squirrel
              Comment
              • head_strong
                SBR MVP
                • 07-02-08
                • 4318

                #8
                What time does that match start, I'm having trouble finding it.....
                Comment
                • Johnny Hipster
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 05-23-09
                  • 66

                  #9
                  I go with 3units - Sheffield United - Watford FC - 1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
                  Comment
                  • Johnny Hipster
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 05-23-09
                    • 66

                    #10
                    Hopefully you will get better next time Squirrel - GL!
                    Comment
                    • Squirrel
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-11-09
                      • 1316

                      #11
                      Meh. 1-3 Yesterday with a loss of 1.5units. Thats the end of the traditional opening day correct score bets etc, from now on it will always be sides/totals/handicaps. Back in a few to see if there is anything for today.
                      Comment
                      • Squirrel
                        SBR MVP
                        • 06-11-09
                        • 1316

                        #12
                        Tottenham v Liverpool - Over 2.5 Goals +106 (1 unit)
                        Both these teams have goals in them and 3 of the last 4 meetings have gone over the total. No Dawson or Woodgate at the back for Spurs and questions surrounding the fitness of Carragher and Skrtel for Liverpool, they may play but also wont be 100% IMO.
                        Comment
                        • Johnny Hipster
                          SBR Hustler
                          • 05-23-09
                          • 66

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Squirrel
                          Tottenham v Liverpool - Over 2.5 Goals +106 (1 unit)
                          Both these teams have goals in them and 3 of the last 4 meetings have gone over the total. No Dawson or Woodgate at the back for Spurs and questions surrounding the fitness of Carragher and Skrtel for Liverpool, they may play but also wont be 100% IMO.
                          Ok Squirrel got this one right
                          Comment
                          • Squirrel
                            SBR MVP
                            • 06-11-09
                            • 1316

                            #14
                            No objection to criticism/comments etc, but can you post your plays in a different thread please, Johnny Hipster, makes it easier to follow mine if yours arent mixed in with them
                            Comment
                            • Johnny Hipster
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 05-23-09
                              • 66

                              #15
                              Okey Squirrel
                              Comment
                              • Squirrel
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-11-09
                                • 1316

                                #16
                                Sunderland (AH +0.75) +121 (1 Unit)
                                Sunderland were rock solid last weekend, they never really looked like conceding and they have the pace to make Chelsea wary of the counter attack. Chelsea got it done against Hull last week but struggled to put the game away, think they are going to be more about getting the job done than blowing the mackems away in this. I actually fancy a draw here, but will take the AH and cover a 1-goal Chelsea victory.

                                Coventry City +240 (1 unit)
                                Donny are a good footballing side but traditional slow starters as the new signings take time to gel, they were horrible for the first 2 months of last season before they really clicked, they've salvaged draws in 2 poor performances so far. Coventry saw off a much fancied Ipswich team and destroyed Barnsley at Oakwell and I think they are a great price to build on that here.

                                Peterborough v West Brom - Under 2.5 +102 (1 unit)
                                West Brom are a good side IMO but are never going to score alot of goals, they struggled to break down Newcastle and couldnt see off Nottingham Forest at the weekend, only winning 1-0. Posh look like they are going to struggle for goals this season, and only managed one chance against Sheffield Wednesday but just happened to score it. Think this has 1-0/1-1 written all over it.

                                Swansea v Reading - FT Draw +240 (1 unit)
                                Neither of these teams have got started this season yet and have managed an awesome 1 goal between them in the 2 games they have each played so far. Both teams were destroyed by rampant North East teams this past weekend and I think both are going to be playing for at least a draw to get some confidence, rather than playing attractive football and risk losing again.
                                Comment
                                • Johnny Hipster
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 05-23-09
                                  • 66

                                  #17
                                  Hi Squirrel - what mean the numbers like +240, +102 ??? thx
                                  Comment
                                  • Squirrel
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-11-09
                                    • 1316

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Johnny Hipster
                                    Hi Squirrel - what mean the numbers like +240, +102 ??? thx
                                    Thats just the odds mate, American style, most people around here use them.

                                    Just add a 1 to the front figure than add a decimal point and you get the decimal price.

                                    So +102 = 2.02 in decimal form

                                    and +240 = 3.40 in decimal form

                                    Etc etc
                                    Comment
                                    • Squirrel
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 06-11-09
                                      • 1316

                                      #19
                                      Birmingham v Portsmouth - Under 1.5 Goals +190 (1 unit)
                                      Birmingham v Portsmouth - FT draw +240 (1 unit)

                                      Neither of these teams has any sort of firepower. Portsmouth didnt look like scoring at all at the weekend against Fulham but didnt really look like conceding loads either. Birmingham will be tough to break down as the atmosphere will be electric for the hime opener, but this has stalemate written all over it. I'm always happy to back the draw when 2 of the favoured top 3 correct score lines at the books are 0-0 and 1-1.
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #20
                                        Super job on the Birmingham pick. 0-0 in the 83rd minute, looks like you're gonna hit the double!
                                        Comment
                                        • Squirrel
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 06-11-09
                                          • 1316

                                          #21


                                          Sometimes all you can do is laugh, my double got done by a 92nd minute penalty!!!
                                          Comment
                                          • Squirrel
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 06-11-09
                                            • 1316

                                            #22
                                            Going to play on a couple of early round Europa League/Uefa cup trends that have served me very well in the past.

                                            Games where the home team is far and away the strongest and will be wanting to bury their opponents tonight so they can send the reserve team out for the 2nd leg:
                                            Benfica -2.5 (1 unit) +190
                                            Staeua Bucharest -2.5 (1 unit) +159

                                            Go for low scoring in the games where the home team is solid in their own yard, but the visiting team is capable of playing out a low scoring game and winning easily in the 2nd leg:
                                            Rapid Vienna v Aston Villa FT Draw (1 unit) +240
                                            Rapid Vienna v Aston Villa Under 1.5 Goals (1 unit) +240
                                            Brondby v Hertha Berlin FT Draw (1 unit) +229
                                            Brondby v Hertha Berlin Under 1.5 Goals (1 unit) +300

                                            The Ajax Amsterdam GOALS, GOALS, GOALS system. Ajax are a solid team at home but their fans demand entertainment, they usually get it and get some high scoring shootouts. Their game against the 3rd best team in Holland the other day ended in a 4-3 farce:
                                            Ajax Amsterdam v Slovan Bratislava Over 3.5 Goals (1 unit) +140

                                            7 Units total staked
                                            Comment
                                            • Squirrel
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 06-11-09
                                              • 1316

                                              #23
                                              4-3 +4.29units on the day.

                                              Benfica and Steaua both won big, and Luis Suarez covered the Ajax overs by scoring all 4 goals. Part covered on the Villa game, just got done for the double after 13 seconds lol, missed both parts on the Brondby game after a 2nd half goal glut.
                                              Comment
                                              • 007Fatty
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-14-09
                                                • 2267

                                                #24
                                                wish i wouldve seen the ajax over 3.5!
                                                I had under 3.5 in live betting and got screwed by ajax!=(
                                                better luck tomorrow hopefully:P
                                                Comment
                                                • Squirrel
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 06-11-09
                                                  • 1316

                                                  #25
                                                  Off to the Bundesliga for tonight.

                                                  FC Schalke +187 (1 unit)
                                                  FC Schalke to win to Nil +450 (1 unit)

                                                  Hoffenheim ran with traditional slow starters Bayern Munich last time out but faded after 70 minutes and never really looked like they had gelled as a squad yet. Felix Magath has got Schalke off to a flier and is a classy coach, I fully expect them to win the title this year. TSG never really created anything against Bayern and if a team takes it to them this year I think they could struggle, they shocked everyone at the early part of last season but faded badly towards the end and now teams know how to play them. I fancy a low scoring Schalke win here, 0-1 or 0-2.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Totolover1409
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 06-14-08
                                                    • 1400

                                                    #26
                                                    wat about taking the under as well in this game
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Squirrel
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-11-09
                                                      • 1316

                                                      #27
                                                      Unders is where I would lean, but the price wasnt really any value for what I saw.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Squirrel
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 06-11-09
                                                        • 1316

                                                        #28
                                                        0-2 -2units. Got the close game with Hoffenheim not really creating that much, sadly the referee got involved and was fussy with his cards and kept interrupting the flow of the game.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • 007Fatty
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-14-09
                                                          • 2267

                                                          #29
                                                          Thanks Squirrel!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Squirrel
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 06-11-09
                                                            • 1316

                                                            #30
                                                            Got a couple of plays for today in the English premier league and championship, no real time for reasoning since i'm in a mad-rush this morning. Checking back through my picks though you'll see what kind of angles i've looked for.

                                                            Hull v Bolton FT Draw (1 unit) +240
                                                            Sunderland (1 unit) +120
                                                            Sheffield United (1 unit) +200
                                                            Newcastle United (1 unit) +160


                                                            4 units total stakes
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Squirrel
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-11-09
                                                              • 1316

                                                              #31
                                                              Adding Sheffield Wednesday -1.5 - They've actually played better than the points column suggests but have struggled for goals due to a striker shortage, however Akpo Sodje is back today and Luke Varney may make his debut after joining on loan from Derby. Think this will be 2-0/3-0 to the Owls.

                                                              1 Unit @ +225
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Squirrel
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 06-11-09
                                                                • 1316

                                                                #32
                                                                Top weekend. 4-1 with just the draw bet going down thanks to a 1-0 scoreline. 5.05unit profit on the weekend and 8.20unit profit overall.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Squirrel
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 06-11-09
                                                                  • 1316

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Carling cup night, mickey mouse trophy that nobody wants to win, so sometimes its tricky to find who is serious and who aint. Tonight I'm rolling with....(no reasons unless asked, running mega late)

                                                                  Middlesbrough +130
                                                                  Peterboro' v Ispwich - FT Draw +250
                                                                  Peterboro' v Ipswich - Under 1.5 Goals +260
                                                                  Sheffield Weds -1.5 +200

                                                                  1 Unit on each of them and all are 90 minute bets, extra time does not count
                                                                  Comment
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